Looking at the models this morning i could not agree with you more.
September 2020:
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4468
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 171206
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.AVIATION...
Periods of SHRA and possible TSRA (and associated MVFR conditions)
can be expected in/around area TAF sites for the 12Z forecast period.
Expect mainly N to NNE winds 5 to 10 knots. VFR conditions will prevail
outside the rain areas. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...
Weak impulses embedded within the mid/upper level Texas trough is
expected to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to portions
of Southeast Texas through Friday. Early morning activity is mainly
light to moderate rain that is moving to the east and northeast across
the area. Once this batch moves on through, daytime heating is expected
to help to generate another round of activity. Could see lingering rains
tonight and tomorrow morning followed by a drying trend from north to
south as the day progresses when a cold front moves across the area.
Temperature forecast is a little tricky for both today and tomorrow
as any significant cloud cover could possibly keep high temperatures
below 90 degrees. The cooler overnight low temperatures will not
enter the area until Friday night. 42
LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]...
A first taste of autumn comes to SE TX this weekend as a surface
cold front approaches the region late Friday, advancing towards the
coast by Saturday morning. While the passage of this shallow
boundary will only slightly lower temperatures, a surge of drier air
in its wake will drop surface dew points substantially across the
region. Most locations north of I-10 will see dew points in the 50s
by late Saturday, while areas closer to the coast will drop into the
low to mid 60s. As this drier air moves in, surface PWs lower to
below 1.0 in by Saturday afternoon which should generally inhibit
diurnally driven showers and storms across inland areas. The chance
for isolated activity will remain along the coast and across the
bays and coastal waters, though this will largely be dependent on
how far the front pushes southward before stalling offshore. All in
all, it should be a pleasant weekend with the reduced humidity
resulting in heat indicies in the upper 80s to low 90s, near or
equal to the forecast daily high temperatures. Overnight lows
through the weekend should generally sit in the mid to upper 60s
across most of the area, though areas around Bryan/College Station,
Crockett, and Madisonville will have a shot at reaching the upper
50s. Daytime highs should remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through
at least the middle of next week.
Our attention turns to the tropics as we head into next week. The
latest analysis by the National Hurricane Center now gives the
developing area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche a 90%
chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours.
There remains a significant deal of uncertainty across forecast
models in regarding this system`s eventual evolution and eventual
track, though a general lack of steering flow should initially keep
the system fairly stagnant in the southwestern Gulf through the
early part of the week. Confidence in the track of the development
of the system by mid-week is currently very low. At this time we do
not anticipate direct impacts to SE Texas beyond increasing seas and
rising water levels along the coast. However, we will continue to
monitor this system very closely over the next several days as the
forecast picture becomes clearer. For the latest tropical weather
information, consult www.hurricanes.gov.
Cady
MARINE...
Light to occasional moderate north and northeast winds are expected
today and tonight. A cold front will move off the coast at the end
of the week. This boundary in combination with an area of low pressure
in the western Gulf will lead to increasing northeast winds, building
seas and rising water levels over the weekend and on into the first
half of next week. Mariners should monitor the western Gulf system
for possible tropical depression or tropical storm formation. 42
CLIMATE...
Yesterday was another day where temperature records were tied or broken.
Galveston`s and Houston Hobby`s highs of 96 tied the old records of
96 that were set in 2004 (same for both locations). In addition to the
record highs, Houston Hobby`s low temperature of 80 degrees set a new
record high minimum temperature for September 16th. The previous record
was 79 degrees set in 2016.
Through September 16th, Galveston has either tied or broken nine September
temperatures records and Houston Hobby has either tied or broken ten
temperature records. Galveston`s average temperature of 87.5 degrees
is tied for the warmest September 1-16 period on record (records date
back to 1874). Hobby`s average temperature of 86.8 degrees is the warmest
September 1-16 period on record (records date back to 1930). 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 70 87 63 84 / 40 40 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 73 90 68 87 / 30 30 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 88 74 86 / 30 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 171206
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.AVIATION...
Periods of SHRA and possible TSRA (and associated MVFR conditions)
can be expected in/around area TAF sites for the 12Z forecast period.
Expect mainly N to NNE winds 5 to 10 knots. VFR conditions will prevail
outside the rain areas. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...
Weak impulses embedded within the mid/upper level Texas trough is
expected to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to portions
of Southeast Texas through Friday. Early morning activity is mainly
light to moderate rain that is moving to the east and northeast across
the area. Once this batch moves on through, daytime heating is expected
to help to generate another round of activity. Could see lingering rains
tonight and tomorrow morning followed by a drying trend from north to
south as the day progresses when a cold front moves across the area.
Temperature forecast is a little tricky for both today and tomorrow
as any significant cloud cover could possibly keep high temperatures
below 90 degrees. The cooler overnight low temperatures will not
enter the area until Friday night. 42
LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]...
A first taste of autumn comes to SE TX this weekend as a surface
cold front approaches the region late Friday, advancing towards the
coast by Saturday morning. While the passage of this shallow
boundary will only slightly lower temperatures, a surge of drier air
in its wake will drop surface dew points substantially across the
region. Most locations north of I-10 will see dew points in the 50s
by late Saturday, while areas closer to the coast will drop into the
low to mid 60s. As this drier air moves in, surface PWs lower to
below 1.0 in by Saturday afternoon which should generally inhibit
diurnally driven showers and storms across inland areas. The chance
for isolated activity will remain along the coast and across the
bays and coastal waters, though this will largely be dependent on
how far the front pushes southward before stalling offshore. All in
all, it should be a pleasant weekend with the reduced humidity
resulting in heat indicies in the upper 80s to low 90s, near or
equal to the forecast daily high temperatures. Overnight lows
through the weekend should generally sit in the mid to upper 60s
across most of the area, though areas around Bryan/College Station,
Crockett, and Madisonville will have a shot at reaching the upper
50s. Daytime highs should remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through
at least the middle of next week.
Our attention turns to the tropics as we head into next week. The
latest analysis by the National Hurricane Center now gives the
developing area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche a 90%
chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours.
There remains a significant deal of uncertainty across forecast
models in regarding this system`s eventual evolution and eventual
track, though a general lack of steering flow should initially keep
the system fairly stagnant in the southwestern Gulf through the
early part of the week. Confidence in the track of the development
of the system by mid-week is currently very low. At this time we do
not anticipate direct impacts to SE Texas beyond increasing seas and
rising water levels along the coast. However, we will continue to
monitor this system very closely over the next several days as the
forecast picture becomes clearer. For the latest tropical weather
information, consult www.hurricanes.gov.
Cady
MARINE...
Light to occasional moderate north and northeast winds are expected
today and tonight. A cold front will move off the coast at the end
of the week. This boundary in combination with an area of low pressure
in the western Gulf will lead to increasing northeast winds, building
seas and rising water levels over the weekend and on into the first
half of next week. Mariners should monitor the western Gulf system
for possible tropical depression or tropical storm formation. 42
CLIMATE...
Yesterday was another day where temperature records were tied or broken.
Galveston`s and Houston Hobby`s highs of 96 tied the old records of
96 that were set in 2004 (same for both locations). In addition to the
record highs, Houston Hobby`s low temperature of 80 degrees set a new
record high minimum temperature for September 16th. The previous record
was 79 degrees set in 2016.
Through September 16th, Galveston has either tied or broken nine September
temperatures records and Houston Hobby has either tied or broken ten
temperature records. Galveston`s average temperature of 87.5 degrees
is tied for the warmest September 1-16 period on record (records date
back to 1874). Hobby`s average temperature of 86.8 degrees is the warmest
September 1-16 period on record (records date back to 1930). 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 70 87 63 84 / 40 40 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 73 90 68 87 / 30 30 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 88 74 86 / 30 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Forecast2020 on 90L
Models have no agreement...
Models have no agreement...
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 457
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
They won’t till we have a center
12Z GFS now has 90L make landfall around Corpus as a tropical storm FWIW.
Look at all those massive totals along the coastline of Louisiana and offshore. Wonder if any of that would come our way or not. That track is crazy on the GFS. Goes towards Louisiana, stops and then goes west into Corpus Christi, then goes east again back into the Gulf lol
And it actually has 3 different lows in the Gulf
I’m beginning to see somewhat of a consensus on the models. It looks like the models want to take it near the mid TX coast (possibly never making landfall) and then make a loop back out into the Gulf again and then head towards Louisiana possibly?
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 457
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
Model consensus this year has been 2 days out
CRASHWX Yep. Dont hang your hat on anything thats 3 days out or more.
If that. 48 hours before landfall the consensus on Sally was very close to NOLA.
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 457
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
No doubt Jason
BTW 90L looks like a TD to me.
12z HWRF takes it through the ship channel as a moderate TS.
Thru hr 72 the 12 Euro is faster towards the lower Texas coast with a TS offshore of Brownsville.
Ever so slight movement is towards Baffin Bay then slowly moving n and offshore of Corpus thru hr 120.
12Z EURO shows 90L as a strong tropical storm stalled off the lower/middle Texas coast as a pretty large northern sided system with rainbands as far inland as central Texas.
Wow the Euro is quite interesting.. just riding up the TX Coast over the course of 2-3 days..
Like previous runs the Euro begins lifting the system out to the ne before any landfall and into central la.