September 2020:
Just had a brief shower while we still can. It should dry up after tomorrow for awhile up in CLL.
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
Been getting pounded by heavy rain just south of Lake Conroe Dam for past hour. The middle of the donut hole finally collapsed.
It was a bust for me today. Got teased by a tropical wall of water that just completely dumped and collapsed as it approached me. At least I got a nice cool breeze out of it.
The tropical waterfalls were all around me today but not a drop here.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4483
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 141137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
A few low clouds are beginning to spread into the northeastern
zones, bringing low end MVFR cigs to UTS this morning. Nearby
terminals, such as CXO, may see cig reductions over the couple of
hourd as well. Otherwise, however, conditions should remain within
VFR thresholds for the duration of the TAF period. Moderate winds
out of the northeast will once again be in the picture today,
reaching around 10 knots this afternoon with higher gusts
possible. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form with
daytime heating, though coverage should be limited in nature
compared to yesterday. As a result, have maintained VCTS wording
at all terminals.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 450 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Night]...
With the inverted upper trough that in part drove the recent
surge of enhanced PWs to the area now well to our southwest,
models remain in good agreement in showing its moisture axis
continuing to push out of SE Texas over the next 24 hours. Despite
this, the lower levels should still be well saturated today with
total PW values remaining above 2.0 in across the bulk of the area
(around the 90th percentile for mid-September at nearby sounding
locations per SPC climatology). Daytime highs in the mid 90s
likely to exceed convective temps this afternoon, so should see
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms forming akin
to yesterday`s development. Latest HRRR and TTU-WRF runs have
kept the bulk of precipitation to the west of I-45, where low-
level moisture remains strongest. Have concentrated highest PoPs
in that area as a result. Storms should diminish upon the loss of
daytime heating early this evening and another clear night looks
in store.
On Tuesday, the approach of TS Sally and eventual landfall near
the MS/LA border is unlikely to bring any direct impacts to the
area. That being said, swells from the system are likely to reach
the coastal waters and result in increased seas (see Marine
section). Model soundings continue to indicate a capped profile in
the afternoon hours which will result in a general decrease in
diurnally driven showers and storms with the bulk of activity
expected closer to the coast and over the nearshore and offshore
waters. Daytime highs should once again rise into the mid-90s,
which combined with dew points in the 70s should create some
rather unpleasant heat index values (100-105).
Cady
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
Overall, the wet trend looks to persist through the end of the
work week and into the weekend, with the main weather story
continuing to be the potential approach of a surface cold front on
Saturday which could provide some relief from the summer-like
humidity.
On Wednesday and into Thursday, a shortwave trough axis will
approach from the northwest while global models continue to
indicate total PWs in the range of 2.0 in. Rainfall chances will
be on the rise on Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs
expected to exceed convective temps. Have maintained general PoP
trends from the previous package with values in the 20-30% range
on Wednesday and 40-60% by Thursday. Daily activity should
generally diminish with the loss of daytime heating as we`ve seen
over the past several days.
Global models continue to indicate the approach of a surface cold
front around Saturday morning, which should provide a respite
from this week`s humid conditions. Dry air advection behind the
advancing boundary should push dew points down 5-10 degrees across
the board through Monday. Have maintained slight to chance along
the coast during this time with most activity expected to be
diurnally-driven in nature.
Cady
.MARINE...
Moderate offshore winds can be expected across the
bays and coastal waters through at least the middle of next week.
Buoys 42035 and 42019 have continued to report winds of 15-20
knots overnight, and as a result have extended caution flags for
the nearshore and offshore waters through 1PM this afternoon.
Winds should diminish heading into the evening hours, and
additional caution flags will not likely be needed. Additional
shower and storm development is expected this afternoon with low-
level moisture remaining ample across the region, though coverage
should be less compared to yesterday. Any storms that do develop
may produce gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.
The approach of TS Sally to our east over the next 24-48 hours will
bring increased swells to the TX coast, which will cause seas to
build to around 5 feet by tonight. As Sally moves inland, SE TX
will remain under a relatively weak pressure gradient and as a
result light to moderate NE winds should persist through the end
of the work week. By Saturday, a surface cold front will approach
the coastal waters. Increasing winds and seas behind the departing
front may require caution flags and/or advisories.
Cady
.TROPICAL...
The tropics remain quite active as we remain near the peak of an
abnormally active season as a whole. The main concern across the
Gulf continues to be TS Sally, which is expected to strengthen to
hurricane status before making landfall near the MS/LA border
tomorrow. Aside from increasing seas due to the system`s swells,
SE Texas is not expected to receive any direct impacts.
Elsewhere, the NHC continues to monitor Hurricane Paulette, TD
Renee, TD Twenty, and two tropical waves near the Cape Verde
Islands. At this time, current forecast guidance suggests that
none of these systems will pose a direct impact to SE Texas. The
most up-to-date forecast information can be found at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 72 91 72 90 / 40 10 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 93 76 95 76 94 / 20 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 92 81 92 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cady
TROPICAL...Cady
FXUS64 KHGX 141137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
A few low clouds are beginning to spread into the northeastern
zones, bringing low end MVFR cigs to UTS this morning. Nearby
terminals, such as CXO, may see cig reductions over the couple of
hourd as well. Otherwise, however, conditions should remain within
VFR thresholds for the duration of the TAF period. Moderate winds
out of the northeast will once again be in the picture today,
reaching around 10 knots this afternoon with higher gusts
possible. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form with
daytime heating, though coverage should be limited in nature
compared to yesterday. As a result, have maintained VCTS wording
at all terminals.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 450 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Night]...
With the inverted upper trough that in part drove the recent
surge of enhanced PWs to the area now well to our southwest,
models remain in good agreement in showing its moisture axis
continuing to push out of SE Texas over the next 24 hours. Despite
this, the lower levels should still be well saturated today with
total PW values remaining above 2.0 in across the bulk of the area
(around the 90th percentile for mid-September at nearby sounding
locations per SPC climatology). Daytime highs in the mid 90s
likely to exceed convective temps this afternoon, so should see
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms forming akin
to yesterday`s development. Latest HRRR and TTU-WRF runs have
kept the bulk of precipitation to the west of I-45, where low-
level moisture remains strongest. Have concentrated highest PoPs
in that area as a result. Storms should diminish upon the loss of
daytime heating early this evening and another clear night looks
in store.
On Tuesday, the approach of TS Sally and eventual landfall near
the MS/LA border is unlikely to bring any direct impacts to the
area. That being said, swells from the system are likely to reach
the coastal waters and result in increased seas (see Marine
section). Model soundings continue to indicate a capped profile in
the afternoon hours which will result in a general decrease in
diurnally driven showers and storms with the bulk of activity
expected closer to the coast and over the nearshore and offshore
waters. Daytime highs should once again rise into the mid-90s,
which combined with dew points in the 70s should create some
rather unpleasant heat index values (100-105).
Cady
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
Overall, the wet trend looks to persist through the end of the
work week and into the weekend, with the main weather story
continuing to be the potential approach of a surface cold front on
Saturday which could provide some relief from the summer-like
humidity.
On Wednesday and into Thursday, a shortwave trough axis will
approach from the northwest while global models continue to
indicate total PWs in the range of 2.0 in. Rainfall chances will
be on the rise on Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs
expected to exceed convective temps. Have maintained general PoP
trends from the previous package with values in the 20-30% range
on Wednesday and 40-60% by Thursday. Daily activity should
generally diminish with the loss of daytime heating as we`ve seen
over the past several days.
Global models continue to indicate the approach of a surface cold
front around Saturday morning, which should provide a respite
from this week`s humid conditions. Dry air advection behind the
advancing boundary should push dew points down 5-10 degrees across
the board through Monday. Have maintained slight to chance along
the coast during this time with most activity expected to be
diurnally-driven in nature.
Cady
.MARINE...
Moderate offshore winds can be expected across the
bays and coastal waters through at least the middle of next week.
Buoys 42035 and 42019 have continued to report winds of 15-20
knots overnight, and as a result have extended caution flags for
the nearshore and offshore waters through 1PM this afternoon.
Winds should diminish heading into the evening hours, and
additional caution flags will not likely be needed. Additional
shower and storm development is expected this afternoon with low-
level moisture remaining ample across the region, though coverage
should be less compared to yesterday. Any storms that do develop
may produce gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.
The approach of TS Sally to our east over the next 24-48 hours will
bring increased swells to the TX coast, which will cause seas to
build to around 5 feet by tonight. As Sally moves inland, SE TX
will remain under a relatively weak pressure gradient and as a
result light to moderate NE winds should persist through the end
of the work week. By Saturday, a surface cold front will approach
the coastal waters. Increasing winds and seas behind the departing
front may require caution flags and/or advisories.
Cady
.TROPICAL...
The tropics remain quite active as we remain near the peak of an
abnormally active season as a whole. The main concern across the
Gulf continues to be TS Sally, which is expected to strengthen to
hurricane status before making landfall near the MS/LA border
tomorrow. Aside from increasing seas due to the system`s swells,
SE Texas is not expected to receive any direct impacts.
Elsewhere, the NHC continues to monitor Hurricane Paulette, TD
Renee, TD Twenty, and two tropical waves near the Cape Verde
Islands. At this time, current forecast guidance suggests that
none of these systems will pose a direct impact to SE Texas. The
most up-to-date forecast information can be found at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 72 91 72 90 / 40 10 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 93 76 95 76 94 / 20 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 92 81 92 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cady
TROPICAL...Cady
It sure is breezy here today. Several robust gusts out of the NE. More wind today than I ever saw with Laura.
I see how it is...only NOW does the system off the TX/MX coasts start to get its act together.
Also, I think Sally may be trying to make a run up to the coast faster (and further east) than most folks are expecting.
Also, I think Sally may be trying to make a run up to the coast faster (and further east) than most folks are expecting.
Sally looks to already be a cane.
000
WTNT64 KNHC 141602
TCUAT4
Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE...
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally
indicate the system has rapidly strengthened to a hurricane,
with maximum sustained winds of around 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09
inches).
A Special Advisory will be issued shortly to update the intensity
forecast for Sally.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
WTNT64 KNHC 141602
TCUAT4
Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE...
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally
indicate the system has rapidly strengthened to a hurricane,
with maximum sustained winds of around 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09
inches).
A Special Advisory will be issued shortly to update the intensity
forecast for Sally.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
Dang. Mississippi is gonna get thumped pretty bad. Coming shore as a 90-100 mph cane and hanging around for 2-3 days.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4483
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 142030
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
330 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
A bit drier for the next couple of days as the disturbance to the
south moves further away to the south. To our east, Hurricane Sally
hugs the norther gulf coast and is expected to make landfall late
Tuesday. Being between the disturbance and hurricane we dont see too
much for active weather. For the rest of today, some showers and
thunderstorms are forming in the western counties, which will begin
to dissipate shortly after sunset. Most of the convection should stay
west, if not far west, of I-45. Tomorrow`s pattern will be similar
with the air mass storms forming in the western counties and moving
southwest. Wednesday evening we see higher rain chances as Hurricane
Sally is weakening after making landfall. Rain bands will become more
broad, and is expected to have some of these waves of showers move
into the area.
With no change in air mass, high and low temperatures remain
about the same. Highs average in the low to mid 90s, and lows in the
mid to upper 70s. Winds will stay northerly to northeasterly at
around 10mph in the day with lighter winds at night. Humidity does
decrease a bit, but probably not too noticeable with only about a 5%
decrease in the RH. Long term is looking a bit more promising to
start seeing some relief from the heat! 35
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
A robust short wave will will be oriented from NE to SW across the
state. Initially, thoughts were that the s/wv would be strong enough
to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms Thu/Fri but
lackluster jet dynamics and a wedge of drier air filtering into the
are from the NE have reduced confidence in widespread precipitation.
Looks like the best rain chances Thu/Fri will be over the SW zones
and toward the coast as a weak upper low forms over South Texas and
drier air continues to move into the area from the NE on Friday.
Fcst soundings show convective temperatures between 85-88 degrees
both days so diurnally driven shra/tsra should still be possible
both days.
High pressure over the northern Great lakes on Friday night will
ridge into the area and drier air will gently ooze into the region
from the north. A weak coastal trough will also try to develop off
the Middle and Deep South Texas coast. At this time, it looks like
the drier air will dominate on Saturday but by Sunday a well defined
coastal trough will begin to focus moisture along the coast. East
winds over the Gulf will converge with N-NE winds over land and this
boundary will serve as a focus for shra/tsra Sun Nite and Monday.
Highest rain chances will again focus near the coast and offshore.
Some model differences noted in the long term as the Canadian and
ICON hold the dry air in place while the GFS is very aggressive with
the moisture return and PW values reach 2.35 inches. Will lean
toward the conservative NBM for PoPs. 43
&&
.AVIATION [21Z TAF Update]...
MVFR ceilings to the north stuck around a lot longer than
anticipated. With that, expect ceilings tomorrow to do roughly the
same. 35
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR and IFR ceilings are scattering out and lifting at most of the
TAF sites. Within a couple of hours, VFR conditions will prevail.
While most of the higher 2.0+ PWATS are going to be in the western
TAF sites, chances for airmass storms are still possible for all
locations except GLS at this time. The biggest threat will be CLL
and SGR this afternoon but the orientation of the moisture axis
could shift slightly and provide the needed moisture to trigger the
convection at UTS/CXO/IAH/HOU. As the airmass storms dissipate shortly
after sunset, VFR conditions will remain for the night. Tomorrow
morning, MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to return to the TAF
sites. Norther flying areas could see CIGs below 1000ft and
IAH/SGR/HOU/LBX at around 1500ft. Timing to dissipate tomorrow looks
to be about the same as today; close to 18z. 35
&&
.MARINE...
The main story will be increasing seas and large swells today into
Tuesday as Hurricane Sally moves into the LA and MS border. Early
this afternoon, surface observations from buoys reported winds
around 15 to 20 knots with seas from 3 to 5 feet. This trend will
continue tonight into Tuesday, with the greatest impact over the
offshore waters. A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline is
in effect for the entire marine zones.
Light northwest to northeast flow is expected Tuesday afternoon into
late Wednesday with seas from 1 to 3 feet. Gusty surface winds and
increasing seas return Friday into the weekend as a surface front
slides southward into our region. The passage of this frontal
boundary could bring northeast winds from 15 to 20 knots at times
and seas up to 5 feet. Caution flags or advisories may be required.
Precipitation-wise, different troughs will move through the region,
producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each
night. The best chance for thunderstorms will be Thursday and Friday
and then again on Sunday as another trough moves in. 05
&&
.TROPICAL...
The tropics remain quite active as we remain near the peak of an
abnormally active season as a whole. The main concern across the
Gulf continues to be TS Sally, which is expected to strengthen to
hurricane status before making landfall near the MS/LA border
tomorrow. Aside from increasing seas due to the system`s swells,
SE Texas is not expected to receive any direct impacts.
Elsewhere, the NHC continues to monitor Hurricane Paulette, TD
Renee, TD Twenty, and two tropical waves near the Cape Verde
Islands. At this time, current forecast guidance suggests that
none of these systems will pose a direct impact to SE Texas. The
most up-to-date forecast information can be found at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 90 72 91 72 / 10 20 0 30 20
Houston (IAH) 77 95 76 94 76 / 10 20 0 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 93 81 92 80 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...43
AVIATION...35
MARINE...05
TROPICAL...Cady
FXUS64 KHGX 142030
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
330 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
A bit drier for the next couple of days as the disturbance to the
south moves further away to the south. To our east, Hurricane Sally
hugs the norther gulf coast and is expected to make landfall late
Tuesday. Being between the disturbance and hurricane we dont see too
much for active weather. For the rest of today, some showers and
thunderstorms are forming in the western counties, which will begin
to dissipate shortly after sunset. Most of the convection should stay
west, if not far west, of I-45. Tomorrow`s pattern will be similar
with the air mass storms forming in the western counties and moving
southwest. Wednesday evening we see higher rain chances as Hurricane
Sally is weakening after making landfall. Rain bands will become more
broad, and is expected to have some of these waves of showers move
into the area.
With no change in air mass, high and low temperatures remain
about the same. Highs average in the low to mid 90s, and lows in the
mid to upper 70s. Winds will stay northerly to northeasterly at
around 10mph in the day with lighter winds at night. Humidity does
decrease a bit, but probably not too noticeable with only about a 5%
decrease in the RH. Long term is looking a bit more promising to
start seeing some relief from the heat! 35
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
A robust short wave will will be oriented from NE to SW across the
state. Initially, thoughts were that the s/wv would be strong enough
to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms Thu/Fri but
lackluster jet dynamics and a wedge of drier air filtering into the
are from the NE have reduced confidence in widespread precipitation.
Looks like the best rain chances Thu/Fri will be over the SW zones
and toward the coast as a weak upper low forms over South Texas and
drier air continues to move into the area from the NE on Friday.
Fcst soundings show convective temperatures between 85-88 degrees
both days so diurnally driven shra/tsra should still be possible
both days.
High pressure over the northern Great lakes on Friday night will
ridge into the area and drier air will gently ooze into the region
from the north. A weak coastal trough will also try to develop off
the Middle and Deep South Texas coast. At this time, it looks like
the drier air will dominate on Saturday but by Sunday a well defined
coastal trough will begin to focus moisture along the coast. East
winds over the Gulf will converge with N-NE winds over land and this
boundary will serve as a focus for shra/tsra Sun Nite and Monday.
Highest rain chances will again focus near the coast and offshore.
Some model differences noted in the long term as the Canadian and
ICON hold the dry air in place while the GFS is very aggressive with
the moisture return and PW values reach 2.35 inches. Will lean
toward the conservative NBM for PoPs. 43
&&
.AVIATION [21Z TAF Update]...
MVFR ceilings to the north stuck around a lot longer than
anticipated. With that, expect ceilings tomorrow to do roughly the
same. 35
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR and IFR ceilings are scattering out and lifting at most of the
TAF sites. Within a couple of hours, VFR conditions will prevail.
While most of the higher 2.0+ PWATS are going to be in the western
TAF sites, chances for airmass storms are still possible for all
locations except GLS at this time. The biggest threat will be CLL
and SGR this afternoon but the orientation of the moisture axis
could shift slightly and provide the needed moisture to trigger the
convection at UTS/CXO/IAH/HOU. As the airmass storms dissipate shortly
after sunset, VFR conditions will remain for the night. Tomorrow
morning, MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to return to the TAF
sites. Norther flying areas could see CIGs below 1000ft and
IAH/SGR/HOU/LBX at around 1500ft. Timing to dissipate tomorrow looks
to be about the same as today; close to 18z. 35
&&
.MARINE...
The main story will be increasing seas and large swells today into
Tuesday as Hurricane Sally moves into the LA and MS border. Early
this afternoon, surface observations from buoys reported winds
around 15 to 20 knots with seas from 3 to 5 feet. This trend will
continue tonight into Tuesday, with the greatest impact over the
offshore waters. A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline is
in effect for the entire marine zones.
Light northwest to northeast flow is expected Tuesday afternoon into
late Wednesday with seas from 1 to 3 feet. Gusty surface winds and
increasing seas return Friday into the weekend as a surface front
slides southward into our region. The passage of this frontal
boundary could bring northeast winds from 15 to 20 knots at times
and seas up to 5 feet. Caution flags or advisories may be required.
Precipitation-wise, different troughs will move through the region,
producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each
night. The best chance for thunderstorms will be Thursday and Friday
and then again on Sunday as another trough moves in. 05
&&
.TROPICAL...
The tropics remain quite active as we remain near the peak of an
abnormally active season as a whole. The main concern across the
Gulf continues to be TS Sally, which is expected to strengthen to
hurricane status before making landfall near the MS/LA border
tomorrow. Aside from increasing seas due to the system`s swells,
SE Texas is not expected to receive any direct impacts.
Elsewhere, the NHC continues to monitor Hurricane Paulette, TD
Renee, TD Twenty, and two tropical waves near the Cape Verde
Islands. At this time, current forecast guidance suggests that
none of these systems will pose a direct impact to SE Texas. The
most up-to-date forecast information can be found at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 90 72 91 72 / 10 20 0 30 20
Houston (IAH) 77 95 76 94 76 / 10 20 0 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 93 81 92 80 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...43
AVIATION...35
MARINE...05
TROPICAL...Cady
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 457
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
Need to watch the boc for development
I agree. The Euro looks interesting.
What timeframe?
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4483
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
I saw that too. Always keep a wary eye to the sky...
1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is
currently producing little shower or thunderstorm activity. Any
development of this system should be slow to occur while the low
meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is
currently producing little shower or thunderstorm activity. Any
development of this system should be slow to occur while the low
meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Oh yes I saw the blowup down there, but I thought that was moving South.
Yeah, but it’s expected to move back north early part of next week. I might add too that the BOC has been untouched too so you could definitely see something explode down there rather easily given the right setup and basically the whole basin has a favorable setup right now it seems. Everything is exploding. Reminds me of 2005.