Oh wow. Ok thanks
September 2020:
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Nice bit of tropical moisture rotating in from the East.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 130045
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
745 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
Quick update sent for gusty winds and scattered storms in the
southeastern most areas. These should dissipate quickly between
830-930 pm. A few of the HRRR runs have highlighted some
redevelopment there after after 2 am but for now will follow this
uptick with a lull through 7 am. Still looking like a much more
active day with storms across the southeastern 2/3rds of the
region between noon and 9 pm.
45
&&
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Storms waning in the short term and will see some MVFR decks
possibly after 09z advancing in from the northeast and east though
may not reach the TAF sites. Showers should get going around
12-15z near the Galveston/Bolivar/Daisetta area and then expand
inland. Primary impacts should hold off until after 18z Sunday
with passage of bands of showers and thunderstorms with gusty
winds and lowered VISBY.
45
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 130045
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
745 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
Quick update sent for gusty winds and scattered storms in the
southeastern most areas. These should dissipate quickly between
830-930 pm. A few of the HRRR runs have highlighted some
redevelopment there after after 2 am but for now will follow this
uptick with a lull through 7 am. Still looking like a much more
active day with storms across the southeastern 2/3rds of the
region between noon and 9 pm.
45
&&
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Storms waning in the short term and will see some MVFR decks
possibly after 09z advancing in from the northeast and east though
may not reach the TAF sites. Showers should get going around
12-15z near the Galveston/Bolivar/Daisetta area and then expand
inland. Primary impacts should hold off until after 18z Sunday
with passage of bands of showers and thunderstorms with gusty
winds and lowered VISBY.
45
&&
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
FXUS64 KHGX 131155
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Satellite picture is looking clear this morning with all terminals
reporting VFR conditions, which should generally persist through
the current TAF period aside from temporary reductions caused by
afternoon storms. Precipitation coverage will be on the rise by
the afternoon as a disturbance in the Western Gulf has provided a
surge of low- level moisture to SE Texas. Although latest high-
resolution models have backed off on initial shower coverage,
expect thunderstorms to begin to develop around 18Z with the
greatest coverage between 21 and 00Z. with all terminals likely to
see some development. Have maintained PROB30 groups from previous
package, but have expanded to include wording at all terminals
given higher confidence in precip coverage compared to yesterday.
TEMPOs for gusty winds and reduced visibilities will likely be
needed in subsequent TAF packages.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020/
DISCUSSION...
The first of the Gulf disturbances we`ve been tracking the past
several days is making its way by our area well offshore. This
will funnel in higher moisture air to the area, helping boost rain
and thunderstorm chances for a day or two. Then attention turns
to Tropical Storm Sally in the eastern Gulf.
There is increasing confidence that Sally will track far to our
east, which will limit or eliminate any direct impacts. However,
the situation remains fairly fluid as to the indirect impacts of
the storm in our area. For marine interests, we will be watching
carefully how quickly the storm strengthens in the open waters,
and how that trend will affect marine winds and seas.
For those of us on land, the track of the storm and size of its
wind field will at least modestly influence our winds. Where we
stand relative to the storm`s moisture envelope and subsident edge
will pretty strongly influence our rain chances later in the
week. The forecast is trending drier as expectations become for a
more organized storm. Still, it wouldn`t take much of a wobble or
an expanding moisture envelope to put us right back in a situation
in which we see outer fringe rains from the storm, so we may not
want to get super attached to the mid-week forecast just yet.
Finally, late in the week, we will go back to looking at the
potential of an incoming front. College Station has already gotten
its first taste of fall, while most of the Houston metro is still
waiting. I don`t know if this is going to be the front to do it,
but it looks strong enough that it is at least a possibility on
the table for now.
SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...
Rainfall chances will once again be on the rise as we close out the
weekend. The moisture axis associated with an upper-level inverted
trough/weak surface low in the western Gulf of Mexico continues to
advance towards SE Texas, with the 12Z suite of deterministic model
guidance in fairly good agreement showing surface PWs rising to the
vicinity of 2.5 in today near the coast and across the Houston metro
area. While increasing cloud cover may inhibit heating slightly,
convective temps in the lower 90s should nonetheless be reachable by
the afternoon. Have backed off slightly from forecast highs in the
latest national blends given the expected precipitation coverage and
cloud cover, though most locations should still see a rise into the
90s by late afternoon. Given the ample near-surface moisture, I
remain confident in widespread shower/storm coverage and as a result
have maintained likely PoPs (60-70%) for most of the area today.
Severe impacts are currently not anticipated, though any stronger
storms that do develop this afternoon may produce brief locally
heavy downpours and gusty winds. Convection should taper off this
evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Heading into the beginning of the work week, our attention turns to
what is now Tropical Storm Sally in the Central Gulf of Mexico. SE
Texas remains unlikely to receive any direct impacts with most model
guidance currently depicting a landfall near the MS/LA border,
though the approach of the system will result in continued moisture
availability near the surface as well as increased seas across the
coastal waters (see Marine section). Showers and storms look to once
again develop throughout the day on Monday, though coverage should
be a bit more confined to the coast where near-surface moisture
availability will be best. Highs near climatological normals are
expected with most locations seeing a rise into lower 90s.
LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...
By Tuesday morning, Sally should be approaching the northern Gulf
Coast. The official forecast is for it to be a hurricane as it
does so, which seems very probable given the expected environment
and model guidance. This actually makes for a fairly important
distinction to our sensible weather, considering how far to the
west of the forecast track we are - even with the recent leftward
shift in the most recent advisory.
Essentially, our earlier forecasts worked under the assumption
that the Sally would remain a fairly broad and disorganized storm,
steered more by lower level winds which were more easterly. This
brought us well under the influence of its moisture envelope,
resulting in high rain chances.
Since then, the guidance consensus has moved strongly upwards, and
the forecast is now for a hurricane in the north central Gulf.
While still clearly feeling some northwesterly shear, Sally`s
satellite appearance is improving, and the upper levels of the
storm look favorable. A stronger, more organized storm is likely
going to have become a more consolidated structure/moisture
envelope. Instead of getting swiped by a broad, messy, slug of
tropical moisture, there`s an increasing chance we end up with
drier northeast flow and square under the storm`s subsident
fringe. As a result, I`ve continued my trend of hacking at the
PoPs in response to this. Sadly for me, I have nobody else to
point the finger at - it`s my own initial forecast and I have
nobody to curse but myself on this one.
Beyond the impact of Sally, the big feature of the forecast in the
extended is the potential for another cold front to drop into the
area - now that we`re pushing into mid-September, this will become
more frequent. The last front overperformed and managed to give
even the westernmost parts of the Houston metro a (very brief)
taste of fall. This next front - broadly speaking - also looks
pretty strong. But here`s the thing - this subtropical ridge is
also quite strong. If not for a combination of that storm, Sally,
and a shortwave getting drawn from Northwest Mexico out of the
southern stream and into the northern, I don`t think the upper
trough with this one would really dig any deeper than the Ohio
Valley.
So, while there is a pretty chilly cold pool this front is
working with, I`d expect that cold air to stay hemmed up far to
our north. Cold advection down at our end of the front will likely
be pretty minimal. Instead, we`ll look for the wind shift to
bring us drier post- frontal air, which should allow for better
overnight cooling. With the lower temperature floor and past the
solar angle maximum, that should help afternoon highs also drift
in a cooler direction late in the week. But, uh...beyond that and
some higher PoPs as the front pushes through...I`m not ready to
commit to anything stronger than that yet.
MARINE...
Light to moderate offshore flow should continue through the
remainder of the weekend and into the early part of next week. As an
upper-level inverted trough continues to advance into the W/SW Gulf,
a surge in moisture associated with this feature will result in
shower and thunderstorm coverage increasing this afternoon. Gusty
winds and brief heavy downpours will be possible with any storms
that do develop.
Although SE Texas is not expected to receive any direct impacts,
Tropical Storm Sally`s approach towards the coast this week will
bring an increase in seas to up to 5 feet across the coastal waters.
The system remains on track to make landfall near the MS/LA border.
Mariners in the Gulf should continue to monitor the latest tropical
weather information closely. The most up-to-date forecast
information can be found at www.hurricanes.gov.
TROPICAL...
The Atlantic basin continues to have a lot of activity. Here`s the
scorecard to what`s out there and their implications for Southeast
Texas:
Weak Gulf Disturbance: Passing along the Texas coast, well
offshore. It will help provide a little moisture to help showers
and thunderstorms get going today into tomorrow, but that`s about
the extent of its impact.
Tropical Storm Sally: Now in the eastern Gulf, Sally is forecast
to gradually strengthen and head towards the north central Gulf
coast. Landfall somewhere on the Lousiana, Mississippi, or Alabama
coast is anticipated on Tuesday as a hurricane before getting
dragged to the northeast. While we should see our weather
indirectly influenced by the storm, confidence is increasing that
we will see no direct impact.
Hurricane Paulette and Tropical Depression Rene: Both in the open
Atlantic, both are likely already too far north and too likely to
be caught up by Atlantic troughs to be a concern for Southeast
Texas.
Tropical Depression Twenty and Invest 97L: TD 20 has been
designated. The NHC forecast track and model guidance continue to
provide positive indications that neither will be a concern for
Southeast Texas. Still, both storms are very, very far to the east
and at a low latitude, so it will behoove us to continue to
monitor both for any changes to those expectations.
CLIMATE...
For the second day in a row, Galveston has tied its record high of
94 degrees. Friday`s temperature matched the record last seen in
1937, and Saturday`s temperature ties a record that dates back to
1912. Today, Galveston`s record increases to 95, and with greater
cloud cover and winds with a bit more of an onshore component
expected, we should come in beneath the record today. Still,
things could become more interesting if the sky is sunnier than
anticipated, and especially if winds can switch - even temporarily
- to being offshore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 73 89 72 91 / 40 20 30 10 20
Houston (IAH) 91 77 93 77 94 / 60 30 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 91 81 92 / 70 50 30 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cady
TROPICAL...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Satellite picture is looking clear this morning with all terminals
reporting VFR conditions, which should generally persist through
the current TAF period aside from temporary reductions caused by
afternoon storms. Precipitation coverage will be on the rise by
the afternoon as a disturbance in the Western Gulf has provided a
surge of low- level moisture to SE Texas. Although latest high-
resolution models have backed off on initial shower coverage,
expect thunderstorms to begin to develop around 18Z with the
greatest coverage between 21 and 00Z. with all terminals likely to
see some development. Have maintained PROB30 groups from previous
package, but have expanded to include wording at all terminals
given higher confidence in precip coverage compared to yesterday.
TEMPOs for gusty winds and reduced visibilities will likely be
needed in subsequent TAF packages.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020/
DISCUSSION...
The first of the Gulf disturbances we`ve been tracking the past
several days is making its way by our area well offshore. This
will funnel in higher moisture air to the area, helping boost rain
and thunderstorm chances for a day or two. Then attention turns
to Tropical Storm Sally in the eastern Gulf.
There is increasing confidence that Sally will track far to our
east, which will limit or eliminate any direct impacts. However,
the situation remains fairly fluid as to the indirect impacts of
the storm in our area. For marine interests, we will be watching
carefully how quickly the storm strengthens in the open waters,
and how that trend will affect marine winds and seas.
For those of us on land, the track of the storm and size of its
wind field will at least modestly influence our winds. Where we
stand relative to the storm`s moisture envelope and subsident edge
will pretty strongly influence our rain chances later in the
week. The forecast is trending drier as expectations become for a
more organized storm. Still, it wouldn`t take much of a wobble or
an expanding moisture envelope to put us right back in a situation
in which we see outer fringe rains from the storm, so we may not
want to get super attached to the mid-week forecast just yet.
Finally, late in the week, we will go back to looking at the
potential of an incoming front. College Station has already gotten
its first taste of fall, while most of the Houston metro is still
waiting. I don`t know if this is going to be the front to do it,
but it looks strong enough that it is at least a possibility on
the table for now.
SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...
Rainfall chances will once again be on the rise as we close out the
weekend. The moisture axis associated with an upper-level inverted
trough/weak surface low in the western Gulf of Mexico continues to
advance towards SE Texas, with the 12Z suite of deterministic model
guidance in fairly good agreement showing surface PWs rising to the
vicinity of 2.5 in today near the coast and across the Houston metro
area. While increasing cloud cover may inhibit heating slightly,
convective temps in the lower 90s should nonetheless be reachable by
the afternoon. Have backed off slightly from forecast highs in the
latest national blends given the expected precipitation coverage and
cloud cover, though most locations should still see a rise into the
90s by late afternoon. Given the ample near-surface moisture, I
remain confident in widespread shower/storm coverage and as a result
have maintained likely PoPs (60-70%) for most of the area today.
Severe impacts are currently not anticipated, though any stronger
storms that do develop this afternoon may produce brief locally
heavy downpours and gusty winds. Convection should taper off this
evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Heading into the beginning of the work week, our attention turns to
what is now Tropical Storm Sally in the Central Gulf of Mexico. SE
Texas remains unlikely to receive any direct impacts with most model
guidance currently depicting a landfall near the MS/LA border,
though the approach of the system will result in continued moisture
availability near the surface as well as increased seas across the
coastal waters (see Marine section). Showers and storms look to once
again develop throughout the day on Monday, though coverage should
be a bit more confined to the coast where near-surface moisture
availability will be best. Highs near climatological normals are
expected with most locations seeing a rise into lower 90s.
LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...
By Tuesday morning, Sally should be approaching the northern Gulf
Coast. The official forecast is for it to be a hurricane as it
does so, which seems very probable given the expected environment
and model guidance. This actually makes for a fairly important
distinction to our sensible weather, considering how far to the
west of the forecast track we are - even with the recent leftward
shift in the most recent advisory.
Essentially, our earlier forecasts worked under the assumption
that the Sally would remain a fairly broad and disorganized storm,
steered more by lower level winds which were more easterly. This
brought us well under the influence of its moisture envelope,
resulting in high rain chances.
Since then, the guidance consensus has moved strongly upwards, and
the forecast is now for a hurricane in the north central Gulf.
While still clearly feeling some northwesterly shear, Sally`s
satellite appearance is improving, and the upper levels of the
storm look favorable. A stronger, more organized storm is likely
going to have become a more consolidated structure/moisture
envelope. Instead of getting swiped by a broad, messy, slug of
tropical moisture, there`s an increasing chance we end up with
drier northeast flow and square under the storm`s subsident
fringe. As a result, I`ve continued my trend of hacking at the
PoPs in response to this. Sadly for me, I have nobody else to
point the finger at - it`s my own initial forecast and I have
nobody to curse but myself on this one.
Beyond the impact of Sally, the big feature of the forecast in the
extended is the potential for another cold front to drop into the
area - now that we`re pushing into mid-September, this will become
more frequent. The last front overperformed and managed to give
even the westernmost parts of the Houston metro a (very brief)
taste of fall. This next front - broadly speaking - also looks
pretty strong. But here`s the thing - this subtropical ridge is
also quite strong. If not for a combination of that storm, Sally,
and a shortwave getting drawn from Northwest Mexico out of the
southern stream and into the northern, I don`t think the upper
trough with this one would really dig any deeper than the Ohio
Valley.
So, while there is a pretty chilly cold pool this front is
working with, I`d expect that cold air to stay hemmed up far to
our north. Cold advection down at our end of the front will likely
be pretty minimal. Instead, we`ll look for the wind shift to
bring us drier post- frontal air, which should allow for better
overnight cooling. With the lower temperature floor and past the
solar angle maximum, that should help afternoon highs also drift
in a cooler direction late in the week. But, uh...beyond that and
some higher PoPs as the front pushes through...I`m not ready to
commit to anything stronger than that yet.
MARINE...
Light to moderate offshore flow should continue through the
remainder of the weekend and into the early part of next week. As an
upper-level inverted trough continues to advance into the W/SW Gulf,
a surge in moisture associated with this feature will result in
shower and thunderstorm coverage increasing this afternoon. Gusty
winds and brief heavy downpours will be possible with any storms
that do develop.
Although SE Texas is not expected to receive any direct impacts,
Tropical Storm Sally`s approach towards the coast this week will
bring an increase in seas to up to 5 feet across the coastal waters.
The system remains on track to make landfall near the MS/LA border.
Mariners in the Gulf should continue to monitor the latest tropical
weather information closely. The most up-to-date forecast
information can be found at www.hurricanes.gov.
TROPICAL...
The Atlantic basin continues to have a lot of activity. Here`s the
scorecard to what`s out there and their implications for Southeast
Texas:
Weak Gulf Disturbance: Passing along the Texas coast, well
offshore. It will help provide a little moisture to help showers
and thunderstorms get going today into tomorrow, but that`s about
the extent of its impact.
Tropical Storm Sally: Now in the eastern Gulf, Sally is forecast
to gradually strengthen and head towards the north central Gulf
coast. Landfall somewhere on the Lousiana, Mississippi, or Alabama
coast is anticipated on Tuesday as a hurricane before getting
dragged to the northeast. While we should see our weather
indirectly influenced by the storm, confidence is increasing that
we will see no direct impact.
Hurricane Paulette and Tropical Depression Rene: Both in the open
Atlantic, both are likely already too far north and too likely to
be caught up by Atlantic troughs to be a concern for Southeast
Texas.
Tropical Depression Twenty and Invest 97L: TD 20 has been
designated. The NHC forecast track and model guidance continue to
provide positive indications that neither will be a concern for
Southeast Texas. Still, both storms are very, very far to the east
and at a low latitude, so it will behoove us to continue to
monitor both for any changes to those expectations.
CLIMATE...
For the second day in a row, Galveston has tied its record high of
94 degrees. Friday`s temperature matched the record last seen in
1937, and Saturday`s temperature ties a record that dates back to
1912. Today, Galveston`s record increases to 95, and with greater
cloud cover and winds with a bit more of an onshore component
expected, we should come in beneath the record today. Still,
things could become more interesting if the sky is sunnier than
anticipated, and especially if winds can switch - even temporarily
- to being offshore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 73 89 72 91 / 40 20 30 10 20
Houston (IAH) 91 77 93 77 94 / 60 30 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 91 81 92 / 70 50 30 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cady
TROPICAL...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs
Anybody seeing any cold/cool fronts coming in 2020? Asking for a friend...
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
So, while there is a pretty chilly cold pool this front is
working with, I`d expect that cold air to stay hemmed up far to
our north. Cold advection down at our end of the front will likely
be pretty minimal. Instead, we`ll look for the wind shift to
bring us drier post- frontal air, which should allow for better
overnight cooling. With the lower temperature floor and past the
solar angle maximum, that should help afternoon highs also drift
in a cooler direction late in the week. But, uh...beyond that and
some higher PoPs as the front pushes through...I`m not ready to
commit to anything stronger than that yet.
working with, I`d expect that cold air to stay hemmed up far to
our north. Cold advection down at our end of the front will likely
be pretty minimal. Instead, we`ll look for the wind shift to
bring us drier post- frontal air, which should allow for better
overnight cooling. With the lower temperature floor and past the
solar angle maximum, that should help afternoon highs also drift
in a cooler direction late in the week. But, uh...beyond that and
some higher PoPs as the front pushes through...I`m not ready to
commit to anything stronger than that yet.
Just offshore with the rainfall.
beautiful quick shower here in our little part of Cypress - .75" to 0" in nearby gages over last hr - feeling lucky
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 132018
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
318 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...
Showers and thunderstorms are popping up as we approach the max temps
of low to mid 90s and convective temps in the mid to upper 80s. That
mixed with the higher PWATs increased to around 2.25 associated with
the disturbance to the south, wide spread showers and thunderstorms
can be expected the rest of the day and into the night. Tomorrow
will being in slightly less chances of precipitation as the
intensification of TS Sally will keep the moisture bands closer to
the storm as it approaches the LA eastern coastline. So while todays
POPs were in the 60s tomorrow will be more in the 20s with 30s in
the eastern counties as the disturbance influencing the area now
moves further southwest. Coastal showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible but mostly should remain off the coast. With a
little less moisture and cloud coverage, temperatures are also
expected to be a bit warmer. Right now, Galveston could reach
advisory level heat indicies but it would be very localized and for
a short time. Most of the CWA will only have indicies around 100.
Lows will not see much change for tonight and tomorrow night;
northern counties in the low 70s and warming to around 80 at the
coast. 35
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]...
On Tuesday, a weak inverted upper trough will have moved inland
across Deep South Texas and "Sally" will be making landfall as a TS
or Hurricane near SE LA. Moisture will consolidate around each of
these systems and SE TX will kind of lie in a void. Despite
reasonably high PW values AOA 2.00 inches, moisture profiles don`t
show much saturation and convective temps are high (92-94). Although
one can`t rule out some shra/tsra with heating, feel subsidence on
the west side of Sally will keep things on the dry side. 850 mb
temps also remain warm and MaxT values will warm into the middle
90`s. A bit of a repeat on Wednesday although PW values drop to
around 1.90 inches with some capping noted in the 850-700 mb layer.
MaxT values will again warm into the mid 90`s. A short wave trough
will develop over New Mexico on Wednesday and move slowly east
Wednesday night.
Lift on the east side of the trough will increase on Thursday and PW
values increase to around 2.00 inches. 850 mb temps cool and MaxT
values will probably reach or remain just shy of 90 degrees.
Convective temps are in the mid 80`s so expect showers and storms to
develop early. Was tempted to go with likely PoPs on Thursday as
moisture profiles in area soundings look favorable but jet dynamics
look a bit out of phase so will keep PoPs at high end chance for
now. The short wave trough sharpens a bit Thursday night into Friday
and showers/storms will likely continue to the east of the upper
level trough axis. Initially, it looked like the trough would move
quickly across the region but the 12z ECMWF slows things down and
both the GFS/ECMWF ensembles maintain the trough over SE TX through
Saturday. With that in mind, will maintain PoPs into Saturday over
the eastern half of the region. A cold front will push into the
region early Saturday and cooler and drier air will advect into SE
TX for Saturday afternoon and Sunday. 43
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Satellite and radar looks like the showers are keeping further
south than originally anticipated. Still expecting some build up at
the terminals but not until a little bit later. Current analysis is
indicating showers pushing in around 20z and VCTS starting up
around 21z for most flying areas. Support from the disturbance in
the gulf looks like it will keep the showers and thunderstorms
around a bit longer than normal, so they should be dissipating around
02-03z. After that, some lower MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected in
the northern flying areas at around 1500ft tomorrow morning. 35
&&
.MARINE...
In the near term, scattered thunderstorms continue to move over the
offshore waters as a weak inverted trough moves through. Light to
moderate northeast winds will continue over the region, with gusts
around 15 knots at times. This activity will continue to move
southward into the Middle Texas coast later this afternoon.
Offshore flow will prevail through mid-week as Tropical Storm Sally
moves inland over the LA/MS border. Speaking of Sally, it is
forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Although southeast TX will
not receive a direct impact, swells are expected to spread over the
southeast TX coast and adjacent waters Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. Seas from 3 to 5 feet will be possible.
Light to moderate offshore flow returns towards the end of the week
along with shower/storm chances. 05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 89 73 92 73 / 20 20 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 76 94 77 94 76 / 40 20 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 92 81 92 81 / 60 30 30 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...43
AVIATION...35
MARINE...05
FXUS64 KHGX 132018
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
318 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...
Showers and thunderstorms are popping up as we approach the max temps
of low to mid 90s and convective temps in the mid to upper 80s. That
mixed with the higher PWATs increased to around 2.25 associated with
the disturbance to the south, wide spread showers and thunderstorms
can be expected the rest of the day and into the night. Tomorrow
will being in slightly less chances of precipitation as the
intensification of TS Sally will keep the moisture bands closer to
the storm as it approaches the LA eastern coastline. So while todays
POPs were in the 60s tomorrow will be more in the 20s with 30s in
the eastern counties as the disturbance influencing the area now
moves further southwest. Coastal showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible but mostly should remain off the coast. With a
little less moisture and cloud coverage, temperatures are also
expected to be a bit warmer. Right now, Galveston could reach
advisory level heat indicies but it would be very localized and for
a short time. Most of the CWA will only have indicies around 100.
Lows will not see much change for tonight and tomorrow night;
northern counties in the low 70s and warming to around 80 at the
coast. 35
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]...
On Tuesday, a weak inverted upper trough will have moved inland
across Deep South Texas and "Sally" will be making landfall as a TS
or Hurricane near SE LA. Moisture will consolidate around each of
these systems and SE TX will kind of lie in a void. Despite
reasonably high PW values AOA 2.00 inches, moisture profiles don`t
show much saturation and convective temps are high (92-94). Although
one can`t rule out some shra/tsra with heating, feel subsidence on
the west side of Sally will keep things on the dry side. 850 mb
temps also remain warm and MaxT values will warm into the middle
90`s. A bit of a repeat on Wednesday although PW values drop to
around 1.90 inches with some capping noted in the 850-700 mb layer.
MaxT values will again warm into the mid 90`s. A short wave trough
will develop over New Mexico on Wednesday and move slowly east
Wednesday night.
Lift on the east side of the trough will increase on Thursday and PW
values increase to around 2.00 inches. 850 mb temps cool and MaxT
values will probably reach or remain just shy of 90 degrees.
Convective temps are in the mid 80`s so expect showers and storms to
develop early. Was tempted to go with likely PoPs on Thursday as
moisture profiles in area soundings look favorable but jet dynamics
look a bit out of phase so will keep PoPs at high end chance for
now. The short wave trough sharpens a bit Thursday night into Friday
and showers/storms will likely continue to the east of the upper
level trough axis. Initially, it looked like the trough would move
quickly across the region but the 12z ECMWF slows things down and
both the GFS/ECMWF ensembles maintain the trough over SE TX through
Saturday. With that in mind, will maintain PoPs into Saturday over
the eastern half of the region. A cold front will push into the
region early Saturday and cooler and drier air will advect into SE
TX for Saturday afternoon and Sunday. 43
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Satellite and radar looks like the showers are keeping further
south than originally anticipated. Still expecting some build up at
the terminals but not until a little bit later. Current analysis is
indicating showers pushing in around 20z and VCTS starting up
around 21z for most flying areas. Support from the disturbance in
the gulf looks like it will keep the showers and thunderstorms
around a bit longer than normal, so they should be dissipating around
02-03z. After that, some lower MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected in
the northern flying areas at around 1500ft tomorrow morning. 35
&&
.MARINE...
In the near term, scattered thunderstorms continue to move over the
offshore waters as a weak inverted trough moves through. Light to
moderate northeast winds will continue over the region, with gusts
around 15 knots at times. This activity will continue to move
southward into the Middle Texas coast later this afternoon.
Offshore flow will prevail through mid-week as Tropical Storm Sally
moves inland over the LA/MS border. Speaking of Sally, it is
forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Although southeast TX will
not receive a direct impact, swells are expected to spread over the
southeast TX coast and adjacent waters Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. Seas from 3 to 5 feet will be possible.
Light to moderate offshore flow returns towards the end of the week
along with shower/storm chances. 05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 89 73 92 73 / 20 20 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 76 94 77 94 76 / 40 20 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 92 81 92 81 / 60 30 30 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...43
AVIATION...35
MARINE...05
Just had a brief shower while we still can. It should dry up after tomorrow for awhile up in CLL.
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1022
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
Been getting pounded by heavy rain just south of Lake Conroe Dam for past hour. The middle of the donut hole finally collapsed.
It was a bust for me today. Got teased by a tropical wall of water that just completely dumped and collapsed as it approached me. At least I got a nice cool breeze out of it.
The tropical waterfalls were all around me today but not a drop here.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 141137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
A few low clouds are beginning to spread into the northeastern
zones, bringing low end MVFR cigs to UTS this morning. Nearby
terminals, such as CXO, may see cig reductions over the couple of
hourd as well. Otherwise, however, conditions should remain within
VFR thresholds for the duration of the TAF period. Moderate winds
out of the northeast will once again be in the picture today,
reaching around 10 knots this afternoon with higher gusts
possible. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form with
daytime heating, though coverage should be limited in nature
compared to yesterday. As a result, have maintained VCTS wording
at all terminals.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 450 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Night]...
With the inverted upper trough that in part drove the recent
surge of enhanced PWs to the area now well to our southwest,
models remain in good agreement in showing its moisture axis
continuing to push out of SE Texas over the next 24 hours. Despite
this, the lower levels should still be well saturated today with
total PW values remaining above 2.0 in across the bulk of the area
(around the 90th percentile for mid-September at nearby sounding
locations per SPC climatology). Daytime highs in the mid 90s
likely to exceed convective temps this afternoon, so should see
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms forming akin
to yesterday`s development. Latest HRRR and TTU-WRF runs have
kept the bulk of precipitation to the west of I-45, where low-
level moisture remains strongest. Have concentrated highest PoPs
in that area as a result. Storms should diminish upon the loss of
daytime heating early this evening and another clear night looks
in store.
On Tuesday, the approach of TS Sally and eventual landfall near
the MS/LA border is unlikely to bring any direct impacts to the
area. That being said, swells from the system are likely to reach
the coastal waters and result in increased seas (see Marine
section). Model soundings continue to indicate a capped profile in
the afternoon hours which will result in a general decrease in
diurnally driven showers and storms with the bulk of activity
expected closer to the coast and over the nearshore and offshore
waters. Daytime highs should once again rise into the mid-90s,
which combined with dew points in the 70s should create some
rather unpleasant heat index values (100-105).
Cady
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
Overall, the wet trend looks to persist through the end of the
work week and into the weekend, with the main weather story
continuing to be the potential approach of a surface cold front on
Saturday which could provide some relief from the summer-like
humidity.
On Wednesday and into Thursday, a shortwave trough axis will
approach from the northwest while global models continue to
indicate total PWs in the range of 2.0 in. Rainfall chances will
be on the rise on Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs
expected to exceed convective temps. Have maintained general PoP
trends from the previous package with values in the 20-30% range
on Wednesday and 40-60% by Thursday. Daily activity should
generally diminish with the loss of daytime heating as we`ve seen
over the past several days.
Global models continue to indicate the approach of a surface cold
front around Saturday morning, which should provide a respite
from this week`s humid conditions. Dry air advection behind the
advancing boundary should push dew points down 5-10 degrees across
the board through Monday. Have maintained slight to chance along
the coast during this time with most activity expected to be
diurnally-driven in nature.
Cady
.MARINE...
Moderate offshore winds can be expected across the
bays and coastal waters through at least the middle of next week.
Buoys 42035 and 42019 have continued to report winds of 15-20
knots overnight, and as a result have extended caution flags for
the nearshore and offshore waters through 1PM this afternoon.
Winds should diminish heading into the evening hours, and
additional caution flags will not likely be needed. Additional
shower and storm development is expected this afternoon with low-
level moisture remaining ample across the region, though coverage
should be less compared to yesterday. Any storms that do develop
may produce gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.
The approach of TS Sally to our east over the next 24-48 hours will
bring increased swells to the TX coast, which will cause seas to
build to around 5 feet by tonight. As Sally moves inland, SE TX
will remain under a relatively weak pressure gradient and as a
result light to moderate NE winds should persist through the end
of the work week. By Saturday, a surface cold front will approach
the coastal waters. Increasing winds and seas behind the departing
front may require caution flags and/or advisories.
Cady
.TROPICAL...
The tropics remain quite active as we remain near the peak of an
abnormally active season as a whole. The main concern across the
Gulf continues to be TS Sally, which is expected to strengthen to
hurricane status before making landfall near the MS/LA border
tomorrow. Aside from increasing seas due to the system`s swells,
SE Texas is not expected to receive any direct impacts.
Elsewhere, the NHC continues to monitor Hurricane Paulette, TD
Renee, TD Twenty, and two tropical waves near the Cape Verde
Islands. At this time, current forecast guidance suggests that
none of these systems will pose a direct impact to SE Texas. The
most up-to-date forecast information can be found at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 72 91 72 90 / 40 10 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 93 76 95 76 94 / 20 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 92 81 92 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cady
TROPICAL...Cady
FXUS64 KHGX 141137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
A few low clouds are beginning to spread into the northeastern
zones, bringing low end MVFR cigs to UTS this morning. Nearby
terminals, such as CXO, may see cig reductions over the couple of
hourd as well. Otherwise, however, conditions should remain within
VFR thresholds for the duration of the TAF period. Moderate winds
out of the northeast will once again be in the picture today,
reaching around 10 knots this afternoon with higher gusts
possible. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form with
daytime heating, though coverage should be limited in nature
compared to yesterday. As a result, have maintained VCTS wording
at all terminals.
Cady
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 450 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Night]...
With the inverted upper trough that in part drove the recent
surge of enhanced PWs to the area now well to our southwest,
models remain in good agreement in showing its moisture axis
continuing to push out of SE Texas over the next 24 hours. Despite
this, the lower levels should still be well saturated today with
total PW values remaining above 2.0 in across the bulk of the area
(around the 90th percentile for mid-September at nearby sounding
locations per SPC climatology). Daytime highs in the mid 90s
likely to exceed convective temps this afternoon, so should see
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms forming akin
to yesterday`s development. Latest HRRR and TTU-WRF runs have
kept the bulk of precipitation to the west of I-45, where low-
level moisture remains strongest. Have concentrated highest PoPs
in that area as a result. Storms should diminish upon the loss of
daytime heating early this evening and another clear night looks
in store.
On Tuesday, the approach of TS Sally and eventual landfall near
the MS/LA border is unlikely to bring any direct impacts to the
area. That being said, swells from the system are likely to reach
the coastal waters and result in increased seas (see Marine
section). Model soundings continue to indicate a capped profile in
the afternoon hours which will result in a general decrease in
diurnally driven showers and storms with the bulk of activity
expected closer to the coast and over the nearshore and offshore
waters. Daytime highs should once again rise into the mid-90s,
which combined with dew points in the 70s should create some
rather unpleasant heat index values (100-105).
Cady
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
Overall, the wet trend looks to persist through the end of the
work week and into the weekend, with the main weather story
continuing to be the potential approach of a surface cold front on
Saturday which could provide some relief from the summer-like
humidity.
On Wednesday and into Thursday, a shortwave trough axis will
approach from the northwest while global models continue to
indicate total PWs in the range of 2.0 in. Rainfall chances will
be on the rise on Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs
expected to exceed convective temps. Have maintained general PoP
trends from the previous package with values in the 20-30% range
on Wednesday and 40-60% by Thursday. Daily activity should
generally diminish with the loss of daytime heating as we`ve seen
over the past several days.
Global models continue to indicate the approach of a surface cold
front around Saturday morning, which should provide a respite
from this week`s humid conditions. Dry air advection behind the
advancing boundary should push dew points down 5-10 degrees across
the board through Monday. Have maintained slight to chance along
the coast during this time with most activity expected to be
diurnally-driven in nature.
Cady
.MARINE...
Moderate offshore winds can be expected across the
bays and coastal waters through at least the middle of next week.
Buoys 42035 and 42019 have continued to report winds of 15-20
knots overnight, and as a result have extended caution flags for
the nearshore and offshore waters through 1PM this afternoon.
Winds should diminish heading into the evening hours, and
additional caution flags will not likely be needed. Additional
shower and storm development is expected this afternoon with low-
level moisture remaining ample across the region, though coverage
should be less compared to yesterday. Any storms that do develop
may produce gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.
The approach of TS Sally to our east over the next 24-48 hours will
bring increased swells to the TX coast, which will cause seas to
build to around 5 feet by tonight. As Sally moves inland, SE TX
will remain under a relatively weak pressure gradient and as a
result light to moderate NE winds should persist through the end
of the work week. By Saturday, a surface cold front will approach
the coastal waters. Increasing winds and seas behind the departing
front may require caution flags and/or advisories.
Cady
.TROPICAL...
The tropics remain quite active as we remain near the peak of an
abnormally active season as a whole. The main concern across the
Gulf continues to be TS Sally, which is expected to strengthen to
hurricane status before making landfall near the MS/LA border
tomorrow. Aside from increasing seas due to the system`s swells,
SE Texas is not expected to receive any direct impacts.
Elsewhere, the NHC continues to monitor Hurricane Paulette, TD
Renee, TD Twenty, and two tropical waves near the Cape Verde
Islands. At this time, current forecast guidance suggests that
none of these systems will pose a direct impact to SE Texas. The
most up-to-date forecast information can be found at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 72 91 72 90 / 40 10 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 93 76 95 76 94 / 20 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 92 81 92 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cady
TROPICAL...Cady
It sure is breezy here today. Several robust gusts out of the NE. More wind today than I ever saw with Laura.
I see how it is...only NOW does the system off the TX/MX coasts start to get its act together.
Also, I think Sally may be trying to make a run up to the coast faster (and further east) than most folks are expecting.
Also, I think Sally may be trying to make a run up to the coast faster (and further east) than most folks are expecting.
Sally looks to already be a cane.