September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
davidiowx
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Bring on the cold front! I can't wait to get chili going when I know it isn't going to be 98 with a heat index of 110 in October!
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tireman4
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Well, you know...you say that...but there was an October...that was hot....2004...the hottest on record and Halloween had a high of 88 degrees...
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jasons2k
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I finished with 3.83” in the cylinder gauge. The digital one ran out of juice just after midnight. Days of no sun on the solar cells drained the batteries. It’s always good to have an old-fashioned backup.

It’ll be interesting to read this storm’s post-analysis. I bet if we didn’t have that dry air we all could add about 10” on top of what we got. If I were getting a Ph. D. in Meteorology that would be a good candidate for a thesis topic.
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DoctorMu
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1.55 inches IMBY for Beta. I'll take it.

Onto the cold front and battling brown patch!
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:33 pm I finished with 3.83” in the cylinder gauge. The digital one ran out of juice just after midnight. Days of no sun on the solar cells drained the batteries. It’s always good to have an old-fashioned backup.

It’ll be interesting to read this storm’s post-analysis. I bet if we didn’t have that dry air we all could add about 10” on top of what we got. If I were getting a Ph. D. in Meteorology that would be a good candidate for a thesis topic.
Dry air at mid-levels and sheared on top! It's remarkable that Beta performed as well as it did.
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tireman4
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:33 pm I finished with 3.83” in the cylinder gauge. The digital one ran out of juice just after midnight. Days of no sun on the solar cells drained the batteries. It’s always good to have an old-fashioned backup.

It’ll be interesting to read this storm’s post-analysis. I bet if we didn’t have that dry air we all could add about 10” on top of what we got. If I were getting a Ph. D. in Meteorology that would be a good candidate for a thesis topic.
Well you know Jason.... ;)
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After a solid band setup last evening over fairfield and up the 290 corridor I ended up with just under 8" starting sunday afternoon.
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don
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Models really over did the affects of dry air on Beta.I think they underestimated the moisture in the lower levels.The HRWF and HMON were the only models that I saw that got Betas structure correct.I received 10 inches of rain.

Just like Imelda last year Beta is another example to never let your guard down no matter how weak the tropical system is.
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don
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On another note the ICON and CMC have not gotten enough credit this season. They showed Beta forming in the southern Gulf and heading north to the middle to upper Texas coast before even Sally developed. Both of those models have done a good job this year when it comes to genesis.

FYI Beta is the first Greek named storm to hit the USA.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 240020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
720 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Large area of wrap around moisture continues to blanket the region
bringing a mix of 2500-3500ft ceilings near 00z that should
continue to lower overnight with IFR conditions expected to start
between 03-09z from UTS area expanding southward into the IAH/HOU
terminals. MVFR should prevail throughout the late night through
late morning hours where the ceilings don`t lower into IFR. Expect
that to go with IFR ceilings area or patchy fog will develop and
lower VISBY into the 3-5 mile range as well with the lowest CIGS.
Improving conditions after 15z and by 20z most sites but UTS/CXO
should be VFR to SKC. Throughout the period expect winds to vary
from 330-020 typically in the 4-10kt range.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 354 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020/...





.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Beta is now a post tropical system and has moved off to LA. Looking
at the latest radar loop, looking like all associated rain is just
about out of SETX, which for most of us in the CWA could not happen
fast enough. Rain fall totals over the past few days reached over 12
inches in some areas. Well, happy to say, no rain in the forecast
right now. Looking to see some foggy conditions tonight in some
areas in the northern counties and could reach the some of the
southern counties as well in the morning. Tonight, lows are looking
to be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow the skies are expected to
start breaking out and should see some sun. With humidity dropping
to around 54% and mixed with the light northwesterly breeze, its
looking like a pleasant day for SETX.

35


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

On this first full day of astronomical autumn, a potential taste of
fall-like weather is in the cards for SE Texas in the form of a cold
front which looks to approach the area by the middle of next week.
For the time being, however, we enter into a period of relatively
benign and dry weather heading into the weekend. In the wake of
Beta`s departure, broad surface high pressure over the southeastern
CONUS and light offshore winds should provide for a fairly pleasant
weekend. Global models continue to indicate the development of a
cutoff upper low over Western/SW Texas by late Friday, with an
associated jet streak at 250mb increasing in strength by early
Saturday. With much of the CWA within the left front quadrant of
this speed max, this would normally point to additional rainfall
developing over the weekend given the favorable divergence aloft
that this pattern provides. However, the drier airmass in place over
the region (surface PWs will remain around 1-1.25") should inhibit
widespread development of showers and storms. In general, look for
seasonable highs through the end of the weekend (mid to upper 80s)
with dew points in the upper 60s. All in all, a fairly pleasant
reprieve following the substantial rain over the past few days.

With surface high pressure shifting eastward towards the end of the
weekend a return to an onshore flow pattern should come by Monday.
Despite this, the expectedly weak pressure gradient should prevent a
surge of low-level Gulf moisture from reaching the coast, keeping
dew points in the high 60s to lower 70s. Highs should rebound
somewhat by the early part of the week, with most locations due to
approach 90 degrees once again on Monday. Meanwhile, by Monday
afternoon, a cold front extending from a deepening surface low over
the Great Plains region looks to push into the central CONUS,
eventually making its way into the Southern Plains by Tuesday. This
looks to be our first real front of substance this season, with both
GFS and ECMWF solutions indicating a stronger frontogenesis signal
in the 850-700mb layer than in previous FROPAs over the past few
weeks. While confidence in the timing of this feature is low, the
boundary should traverse SE TX on late Tuesday and into Wednesday,
with northerly winds in its wake providing a surge of cooler and
drier air. With guidance indicating the potential for dew points
in the 40s by Wednesday afternoon, things could certainly feel
fall- like by mid-week. After the tropical season we`ve had thus
far, I imagine this will be a welcome change!

Cady


.MARINE...

Remnants of Beta continue to move northeast over the Louisiana/Lower
Mississippi River tonight into Friday. This flow pattern will keep
moderate northwest winds gusting from 15 to 20 knots at times this
evening. Seas will gradually decrease to 2 - 4 feet. With that said,
will continue SCEC flags for all nearshore and offshore waters until
early Thursday morning. Conditions will improve late tonight into
the weekend with winds and seas falling below headline criteria.
Light offshore winds and seas up to 3 feet are expected through next
week.

In terms of coastal conditions, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect until 7AM Thursday for the Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston
Island and Matagorda Island. This is due to persisting moderate
offshore flow and a potential for minor coastal flooding near the
time of high tide late tonight. Conditions should improve early
Thursday morning with no coastal flood issues expected at this time.

05


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall has departed and the water levels in the river and bayou
systems are doing the same. San Bernard still creeping up in few
locations and may get into flood near East Bernard with a small
second rise tonight/Thu morning. Boling has crested in flood and
starting a slow fall while downstream at Old Ocean the updated
forecast does not reach flood now but crests above bankfull shy of
flood by about half a foot. Down in Matagorda county on the Tres
Palacios it just dropped below flood near Midfield. Clear creek the
levels continue to steadily fall and only a shrinking area below
FM528 is still in flood but these too are falling steadily.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 64 80 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 82 65 85 67 / 0 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 83 72 82 75 / 0 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Thursday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


AVIATION...45
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

MVFR to IVFR conditions are expected to continue through the late
morning hours but cigs could increase back to VFR for several
sites as early at around 15Z. N winds at around 5-10 KTS will
prevail today, gradually turning more NE tonight and then E
Friday morning. MVFR to possibly IFR cigs are expected to return
tonight for most sites. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020/

SHORT TERM [Through Friday night]...
A rather benign weather pattern will set up across Southeast Texas
now that the remnants of Beta continue to move farther away from the
TX region across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Skies will slowly
lift during the morning hours and scatter out a bit in the afternoon
and evening. Winds will continue northerly at around 10 MPH today
with a few coastal areas possibly continuing around 15 MPH.
Temperatures will be very pleasant throughout the short term period,
with high temperatures only reaching the low 80s areawide today and
lows tonight into Friday morning cooling down to the 60s again. A
similar weather pattern is to be expected for Friday, with skies
scattering out a little more, allowing temperatures to increase into
the mid 80s. Dewpoints will stay in the 60s however, so it will
still feel rather nice out there. Winds will turn easterly Friday
and southeasterly by Friday night. 24

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
The southwest portion of the elongated H5 trof stretching from
the coastal Tx to Tennessee Valley will cutoff and linger into the
weekend. Can`t rule out some iso precip considering the llvl onshore
flow will have resumed, but moisture availability should be
marginal.

The cutoff eventually kicks out to the northeast on Sunday and
becomes absorbed into the larger trof digging into the eastern
half of the country.

With the amplifying ridge to the west and digging trof to the
east, pattern becomes favorable for some frontal boundaries to
make their way southward across the area next week. That being
said there are still some differences in the finer details which
will impact timing, strength, temps & POPs. The first front is
still penciled in for Monday. ECMWF/UKMET/ICON are showing signs
of a faster, slightly stronger fropa (and a few with better
chances of precip) than GFS and some of the blends. Didn`t change
too much in regards to the ongoing fcst, but did incorporate some
higher weight into the mix with those listed above. The second
front should arrive later in the week...Wed-Thur maybe. Whether
it has enough moisture to interact with probably depends on what
Monday`s fropa ends up looking like. But overall, it looks like a
pleasant wx week. 47

MARINE...
Being on the western outskirts of Beta`s remnants, an offshore
flow will continue into Fri. Seas have diminished and should
remain that way for a while. Though still a foot above normal,
water levels have fallen enough where the coastal flooding threat
should be on the low end...esp considering most locations will be
headed into low tide today. Am going to cancel the coastal flood
advsy a few hours early this morning, then let the day crew look
at the trends going into tonight`s high tide cycle should any
products be required.

Onshore flow resumes Friday night ahead of a cold front expected
to move into the waters Monday. As noted above, confidence into
the overall strength of this front (wind & sea-wise) isn`t
particularly high, but cannot rule out the possibility both might
need to be nudged upward in the fcst and SCA`s may be required by
Mon night. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 62 84 64 86 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 65 85 67 87 / 10 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 71 83 74 85 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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snowman65
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Looks like next weeks front is fading away as well....don't you just love it LOL
Cromagnum
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:26 am Looks like next weeks front is fading away as well....don't you just love it LOL
I already told yall in the first front thead it ain't happening until November.
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:26 am Looks like next weeks front is fading away as well....don't you just love it LOL
Lol really? I haven’t even been paying attention to the models the past couple days cuz I’m really only interested in them if they’re showing some sort of precipitation and they sure aren’t showing any of that for the next couple weeks so I lost interest in model watching. That’s a good thing though because I need 2-3 weeks to dry out anyway. I doubt we’ll have much of a winter though if La Niña is here.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241453
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...
Quick update with the light drizzle/rain wrapping around through
the area should be shifting southeast through late morning along
with extensive cloud cover. During the afternoon expect skies to
start to scatter out.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 642 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020/...


.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

MVFR to IVFR conditions are expected to continue through the late
morning hours but cigs could increase back to VFR for several
sites as early at around 15Z. N winds at around 5-10 KTS will
prevail today, gradually turning more NE tonight and then E
Friday morning. MVFR to possibly IFR cigs are expected to return
tonight for most sites. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 80 62 84 64 86 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 65 85 67 87 / 20 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 71 83 74 85 / 20 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS suggests a fairly strong cold front arrives early next week.
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jasons2k
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Hard to believe. 2005 is also when we relocated to Houston (again).
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redneckweather
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I already told yall in the first front thead it ain't happening until November.
[/quote]


We have already had a couple of frontal passages that lowered temps?🤷‍♂️

Next week still looks good to me. A cool front Monday/Tuesday followed up by another cool front later in the week. Sounds great to me!
JDsGN
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:48 am
snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:26 am Looks like next weeks front is fading away as well....don't you just love it LOL
I already told yall in the first front thead it ain't happening until November.
We already had a 1/2 front and one full front. Last weekend was beautiful outside for mid September. Its 72 out right now. Ill bet its a decent front.
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jasons2k
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Agreed, the first front contest is over. Technically, the one from a couple of weeks ago was our first front. I know some places have this fake criteria for low temps or dew points below a certain level, but the wind shift and significant drop in dew points was enough in my book.

I’m looking forward to the upcoming weather. This Saturday is my wife’s birthday and I’m having a big cookout for family and friends. Right now the forecast says a low of 65F, a high of 87F and mostly sunny. Looks perfect to me for Late September.
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