September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:00 pm Hard to believe. 2005 is also when we relocated to Houston (again).

3689CEA2-EC3E-4395-9FFA-B7336252A037.png
What a disaster that evacuation was.
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DoctorMu
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DoctorMu
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Major front causing lows in the upper 50s in the Brazos Valley still on tap for Monday and into October.
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snowman65
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:21 am The 12Z GFS suggests a fairly strong cold front arrives early next week.
that would be nice but I don't think there's a snowballs chance lol
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tireman4
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775
FXUS64 KHGX 241807
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
107 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Persistent MVFR deck blankets the region this afternoon and will
be slow to improve though may rise slowly to 3000-3500 feet
21-23z. AMDAR soundings showing thick layer of moisture trapped in
the 1800-3500 layer. Flow through the cloud layer should veer
from the northwest to the north and northeast so expect that even
if skies do go VFR for a few hours late this afternoon that MVFR
decks will resume shortly after 01z (if not sooner). MVFR
overnight then finally with mid to late morning heating expect
skies to scatter out Friday and VFR to ensue.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 953 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020/...





.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...
Quick update with the light drizzle/rain wrapping around through
the area should be shifting southeast through late morning along
with extensive cloud cover. During the afternoon expect skies to
start to scatter out.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 62 84 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 65 85 67 87 69 / 0 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 83 74 85 77 / 10 10 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...45
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:37 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:21 am The 12Z GFS suggests a fairly strong cold front arrives early next week.
that would be nice but I don't think there's a snowballs chance lol
Well all of the models are on board and the discos are pretty confident. It’s been consistent.
Team #NeverSummer
Pas_Bon
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:48 pm
snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:37 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:21 am The 12Z GFS suggests a fairly strong cold front arrives early next week.
that would be nice but I don't think there's a snowballs chance lol
Well all of the models are on board and the discos are pretty confident. It’s been consistent.
Looks like
The forecast temps have been raised for next week. Dang it.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:16 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:48 pm
snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:37 pm

that would be nice but I don't think there's a snowballs chance lol
Well all of the models are on board and the discos are pretty confident. It’s been consistent.
Looks like
The forecast temps have been raised for next week. Dang it.
Maybe for your area... I’m in the 50s and 70s all next week
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 250934
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
434 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Sunday Night]...

Widespread wraparound clouds that has lingered over the area for
much of the last day or so, appear to be slowly eroding from the
W and SW this morning. With the skies clearing, the still rather
wet grounds and low dewpoint spreads, we could see the rapid de-
velopment of patchy fog (some possibly dense) across portions of
the CWFA through the rest of this morning. Visibilities may be a
little slow to improve given the very light low-level winds, but
will be expecting these conditions to mix out by late morning...
along with the clouds by afternoon. Warmer temperatures (via the
decreased clouds) are on tap for today...with highs in the lower
to mid 80s.

As surface high pressure develops over the SE U.S., winds across
the region are forecast to become more S/SE by Sat. This onshore
flow is not expected to strengthen too much over the weekend but
it will help draw some Gulf moisture back into the area. Still a
bit wary on the idea of fog developing tonight/early Sat but not
totally ruling it out either. Temperatures will continue to warm
through the weekend...highs in the mid 80s Sat and mid/upper 80s
(maybe even around 90) on Sun. Rain chances will also remain at/
near none for the majority of this forecast period but we cannot
rule out some WAA-type showers early Sun morning along the coast
and the nearshore waters. However, our "best" chances are likely
going to be late Sun night (across our northern counties) as the
next cold front begins it push down from the Plains. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Upper trof digs southward into the Plains and into the eastern
states as ridging takes shape across the western parts of the
country.

Resulting deep layer northerly flow should push a legitimate cold
front across the region and into the Gulf on Monday. PW`s aren`t too
impressive in advance (maybe ~1.5") and llvl flow veers to the sw
ahead of the sfc boundary, but there should be enough convergence
along the front to generate perhaps a thin band of precipitation as
it moves through. Really nice wx should persist in its wake with
lows in the 50s inland & 60s coast, and highs in the 78-84 degree
range.

Upper pattern really doesn`t change all that much for the remainder
of the week and most of the medium range guidance suggests a
reinforcing surge of drier air making its way into the region Thur-
Fri. 47

&&

.MARINE...

Water levels remain about a foot above normal with high tides
peaking a touch over 3 feet, but mostly below coastal flood
concerns. Still may need to keep an eye on things later this weekend
as onshore flow resumes and seas inch upward, but even then main
concern would be a few hours before/after high tide times.

A strong cold front should push into the waters Monday with SCA`s
expected in its wake for moderate-strong north winds and building
seas. With water temps in the upper 70s, wouldn`t doubt if we see
some wind gusts closer to gale force Monday night as thermal
gradient plays a role as well. Winds/seas subside toward midweek,
though it appears we`ll see a reinforcing front move in Thurs-Fri
which would cause them to pick back up. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

We will likely be dealing with the persistent MVFR deck lingering
over the bulk of the CWA at the start of this TAF cycle. But with
this deck slowly eroding from the W/SW...some sites (CLL/LBX) may
be dealing with the development of patchy (possibly dense) fog at
that time. Based on the extrapolated clearing trends, these lower
VIS/CIGS could affect the rest of the sites briefly (13-16Z). VFR
conditions are expected for much of the area by this afternoon as
weak high pressure develops. These clearing skies and light winds
could give us another round of patchy fog/low clouds tonight into
early Sat morning. 41



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 63 85 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 84 68 86 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 75 85 77 87 / 10 0 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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tireman4
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The HGX NWS thinking for our area..

Resulting deep layer northerly flow should push a legitimate cold
front across the region and into the Gulf on Monday. PW`s aren`t too
impressive in advance (maybe ~1.5") and llvl flow veers to the sw
ahead of the sfc boundary, but there should be enough convergence
along the front to generate perhaps a thin band of precipitation as
it moves through. Really nice wx should persist in its wake with
lows in the 50s inland & 60s coast, and highs in the 78-84 degree
range.
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snowman65
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anyone taking bets on when we'll see the sun again? It's been over a week now.
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snowman65 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:46 am anyone taking bets on when we'll see the sun again? It's been over a week now.
Probably in the next 4-5 hours. I’m loving these temps though!
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DoctorMu
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davidiowx wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:13 am
snowman65 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:46 am anyone taking bets on when we'll see the sun again? It's been over a week now.
Probably in the next 4-5 hours. I’m loving these temps though!
60° low in College Station this am. Up to 75°F and sun. Mowed the front yesterday evening and put down fungicide (again!).

All is good.

We still have upper 70s and upper 50s in the forecast for next week.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR at the TAF sites but some patchy MVFR CIGS may linger for
another hour or two as temperatures rise. Overnight patchy fog
will likely develop and may lower to IFR/LIFR conditions after 09z
for mainly the rural TAF sites through 13z. Warming up tomorrow
morning expect fog to dissipate quickly and patchy MVFR ceilings
for a few hours 13-15z then scattered CU redevelop with more
consistent light south and southeasterly flow.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1100 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday]...
Shallow CU developing over the area with light winds (mainly
northeast winds) that should become east and southeast this
afternoon and tonight. Skies will become partly cloudy with a very
pleasant afternoon on tap along with highs climbing into the 83-87
degrees. Evening temperatures dipping into the mid 70s for most
areas and even upper 60s up north.

Do expect some patchy fog to develop toward morning over some
rural areas from Angleton to Sealy to College Station to Conroe to
Livingston after 3 or 4 am.

45


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Upper trof digs southward into the Plains and into the eastern
states as ridging takes shape across the western parts of the
country.

Resulting deep layer northerly flow should push a legitimate cold
front across the region and into the Gulf on Monday. PW`s aren`t too
impressive in advance (maybe ~1.5") and llvl flow veers to the sw
ahead of the sfc boundary, but there should be enough convergence
along the front to generate perhaps a thin band of precipitation as
it moves through. Really nice wx should persist in its wake with
lows in the 50s inland & 60s coast, and highs in the 78-84 degree
range.

Upper pattern really doesn`t change all that much for the remainder
of the week and most of the medium range guidance suggests a
reinforcing surge of drier air making its way into the region Thur-
Fri. 47


.MARINE...

Water levels remain about a foot above normal with high tides
peaking a touch over 3 feet, but mostly below coastal flood
concerns. Still may need to keep an eye on things later this weekend
as onshore flow resumes and seas inch upward, but even then main
concern would be a few hours before/after high tide times.

A strong cold front should push into the waters Monday with SCA`s
expected in its wake for moderate-strong north winds and building
seas. With water temps in the upper 70s, wouldn`t doubt if we see
some wind gusts closer to gale force Monday night as thermal
gradient plays a role as well. Winds/seas subside toward midweek,
though it appears we`ll see a reinforcing front move in Thurs-Fri
which would cause them to pick back up. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 63 85 67 89 69 / 0 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 68 86 70 89 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 75 85 77 87 78 / 0 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...45
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DoctorMu
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Interesting article. I (and 57) would (and did) rate Beta as a Zombie Storm, because per IR it was a naked swirl 3 times: twice before landfall and once afterwards.

Beta still dropped from about 2.5 inches here in CLL to over a foot in some Houston area locations. That Beta cat used a lot of its nine lives.

https://www.livescience.com/zombie-stor ... tification
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:31 pm Interesting article. I (and 57) would (and did) rate Beta as a Zombie Storm, because per IR it was a naked swirl 3 times: twice before landfall and once afterwards.

Beta still dropped from about 2.5 inches here in CLL to over a foot in some Houston area locations. That Beta cat used a lot of its nine lives.

https://www.livescience.com/zombie-stor ... tification
If you’re going by totals that were radar estimated then you’re gonna be wrong. Radar estimates are wrong basically every time. They always underestimate the totals.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 252043
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday Afternoon]...
Another quiet evening with light winds and clearing skies in the
early evening with the loss of heating. A brief penetration of the
seabreeze possible late this afternoon into the early evening for
areas within about 5 miles of the coast. Tonight patchy fog/areas
of fog will likely be developing after 3 am for the inland areas
especially in the more rural locations with radiational cooling.

Fog dissipating quickly Saturday morning between 7-8 am with heating
and then development of shallow CU and capping aloft as upper speed
max approaches from the southwest. Moisture return starts and slow
rise in BL depth and temperatures should rise into the mid to upper
80s. An isolated shower may be possible east and northeast of the
Trinity bay area but chances look slim as upper trough moves through
the area.

45

&&

.LONG TERM...[Saturday Night through Friday]

It will be a little warmer Saturday night through Sunday night as winds
come back around to the southeast and south in response to deepening
low pressure in the Texas panhandle-West Texas area. Rain is not expected
to come back into the picture until late Sunday night through Monday
when a strong cold front sweeps through the area. Best rain chances
currently look like during the day on Monday ahead of the front with
the higher values across ports of our northeast and east counties.
Rainfall totals will not be bad at all (nothing even close to what
we saw with Beta) due partly to the fast movement of the front (wettest
spots might see 1/4 to 1/2 inch). Behind the front, expect falling
temperatures along with possible breezy conditions developing inland
and breezy/windy conditions developing near and along the coast Monday
afternoon and especially Monday night and Tuesday in response to a
tightened pressure gradient. With strong ridging developing out west
and a deep trough developing out east, look for cooler nights (lows
mainly in the 50s inland and in the 60s at the beaches), not as warm
days (highs the 70s/80s) and much lower humidities for the remainder
of the week as September comes to an end and October begins). 42

&&

.MARINE...
Mild conditions expected tonight through Sunday with winds varying
from northeasterly around to the south then gradually increasing
Saturday night into Sunday. Winds may briefing increase to SCEC
conditions Sunday night in the Matagorda Bay area and the waters to
the south.

A strong cold front will move through SETX Monday and off the coast
between 8am and noon. CAA signals all showing a stronger cold front
and forcing indicating the potential for a line of showers or storms
to accompany parts of the front that isn`t capped. After the FROPA
winds should quickly ramp up to SCA conditions with sustained 20+
knot winds and stronger gusts. Winds of 25-30 knots will be with
possible Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Winds should
relax Tuesday afternoon/evening as surface high settles over the
coast.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR at the TAF sites but some patchy MVFR CIGS may linger for
another hour or two as temperatures rise. Overnight patchy fog
will likely develop and may lower to IFR/LIFR conditions after 09z
for mainly the rural TAF sites through 13z. Warming up tomorrow
morning expect fog to dissipate quickly and patchy MVFR ceilings
for a few hours 13-15z then scattered CU redevelop with more
consistent light south and southeasterly flow.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 85 67 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 65 86 69 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 75 84 76 87 79 / 0 10 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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DoctorMu
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Our 10 days of northerly winds ends tonight, with southerly flow during the weekend
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:50 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:31 pm Interesting article. I (and 57) would (and did) rate Beta as a Zombie Storm, because per IR it was a naked swirl 3 times: twice before landfall and once afterwards.

Beta still dropped from about 2.5 inches here in CLL to over a foot in some Houston area locations. That Beta cat used a lot of its nine lives.

https://www.livescience.com/zombie-stor ... tification
If you’re going by totals that were radar estimated then you’re gonna be wrong. Radar estimates are wrong basically every time. They always underestimate the totals.
I have an old school rain gauge. 2.55 inches here. The other figures I cited a few pages back are from the counties. The point is at least 2.5-15in inches fell. More than predicted at landfall.
cmunson
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We had 12.04" here in Oak Forest (Sunday through Wednesday) with the peak being 8.29" on Tuesday.

DoctorMu wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:13 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:50 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:31 pm Interesting article. I (and 57) would (and did) rate Beta as a Zombie Storm, because per IR it was a naked swirl 3 times: twice before landfall and once afterwards.

Beta still dropped from about 2.5 inches here in CLL to over a foot in some Houston area locations. That Beta cat used a lot of its nine lives.

https://www.livescience.com/zombie-stor ... tification
If you’re going by totals that were radar estimated then you’re gonna be wrong. Radar estimates are wrong basically every time. They always underestimate the totals.
I have an old school rain gauge. 2.55 inches here. The other figures I cited a few pages back are from the counties. The point is at least 2.5-15in inches fell. More than predicted at landfall.
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