September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

MVFR to IVFR conditions are expected to continue through the late
morning hours but cigs could increase back to VFR for several
sites as early at around 15Z. N winds at around 5-10 KTS will
prevail today, gradually turning more NE tonight and then E
Friday morning. MVFR to possibly IFR cigs are expected to return
tonight for most sites. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020/

SHORT TERM [Through Friday night]...
A rather benign weather pattern will set up across Southeast Texas
now that the remnants of Beta continue to move farther away from the
TX region across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Skies will slowly
lift during the morning hours and scatter out a bit in the afternoon
and evening. Winds will continue northerly at around 10 MPH today
with a few coastal areas possibly continuing around 15 MPH.
Temperatures will be very pleasant throughout the short term period,
with high temperatures only reaching the low 80s areawide today and
lows tonight into Friday morning cooling down to the 60s again. A
similar weather pattern is to be expected for Friday, with skies
scattering out a little more, allowing temperatures to increase into
the mid 80s. Dewpoints will stay in the 60s however, so it will
still feel rather nice out there. Winds will turn easterly Friday
and southeasterly by Friday night. 24

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
The southwest portion of the elongated H5 trof stretching from
the coastal Tx to Tennessee Valley will cutoff and linger into the
weekend. Can`t rule out some iso precip considering the llvl onshore
flow will have resumed, but moisture availability should be
marginal.

The cutoff eventually kicks out to the northeast on Sunday and
becomes absorbed into the larger trof digging into the eastern
half of the country.

With the amplifying ridge to the west and digging trof to the
east, pattern becomes favorable for some frontal boundaries to
make their way southward across the area next week. That being
said there are still some differences in the finer details which
will impact timing, strength, temps & POPs. The first front is
still penciled in for Monday. ECMWF/UKMET/ICON are showing signs
of a faster, slightly stronger fropa (and a few with better
chances of precip) than GFS and some of the blends. Didn`t change
too much in regards to the ongoing fcst, but did incorporate some
higher weight into the mix with those listed above. The second
front should arrive later in the week...Wed-Thur maybe. Whether
it has enough moisture to interact with probably depends on what
Monday`s fropa ends up looking like. But overall, it looks like a
pleasant wx week. 47

MARINE...
Being on the western outskirts of Beta`s remnants, an offshore
flow will continue into Fri. Seas have diminished and should
remain that way for a while. Though still a foot above normal,
water levels have fallen enough where the coastal flooding threat
should be on the low end...esp considering most locations will be
headed into low tide today. Am going to cancel the coastal flood
advsy a few hours early this morning, then let the day crew look
at the trends going into tonight`s high tide cycle should any
products be required.

Onshore flow resumes Friday night ahead of a cold front expected
to move into the waters Monday. As noted above, confidence into
the overall strength of this front (wind & sea-wise) isn`t
particularly high, but cannot rule out the possibility both might
need to be nudged upward in the fcst and SCA`s may be required by
Mon night. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 62 84 64 86 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 65 85 67 87 / 10 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 71 83 74 85 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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snowman65
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Looks like next weeks front is fading away as well....don't you just love it LOL
Cromagnum
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:26 am Looks like next weeks front is fading away as well....don't you just love it LOL
I already told yall in the first front thead it ain't happening until November.
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:26 am Looks like next weeks front is fading away as well....don't you just love it LOL
Lol really? I haven’t even been paying attention to the models the past couple days cuz I’m really only interested in them if they’re showing some sort of precipitation and they sure aren’t showing any of that for the next couple weeks so I lost interest in model watching. That’s a good thing though because I need 2-3 weeks to dry out anyway. I doubt we’ll have much of a winter though if La Niña is here.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241453
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...
Quick update with the light drizzle/rain wrapping around through
the area should be shifting southeast through late morning along
with extensive cloud cover. During the afternoon expect skies to
start to scatter out.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 642 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020/...


.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

MVFR to IVFR conditions are expected to continue through the late
morning hours but cigs could increase back to VFR for several
sites as early at around 15Z. N winds at around 5-10 KTS will
prevail today, gradually turning more NE tonight and then E
Friday morning. MVFR to possibly IFR cigs are expected to return
tonight for most sites. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 80 62 84 64 86 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 65 85 67 87 / 20 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 71 83 74 85 / 20 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS suggests a fairly strong cold front arrives early next week.
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jasons2k
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Hard to believe. 2005 is also when we relocated to Houston (again).
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redneckweather
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I already told yall in the first front thead it ain't happening until November.
[/quote]


We have already had a couple of frontal passages that lowered temps?🤷‍♂️

Next week still looks good to me. A cool front Monday/Tuesday followed up by another cool front later in the week. Sounds great to me!
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:48 am
snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:26 am Looks like next weeks front is fading away as well....don't you just love it LOL
I already told yall in the first front thead it ain't happening until November.
We already had a 1/2 front and one full front. Last weekend was beautiful outside for mid September. Its 72 out right now. Ill bet its a decent front.
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jasons2k
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Agreed, the first front contest is over. Technically, the one from a couple of weeks ago was our first front. I know some places have this fake criteria for low temps or dew points below a certain level, but the wind shift and significant drop in dew points was enough in my book.

I’m looking forward to the upcoming weather. This Saturday is my wife’s birthday and I’m having a big cookout for family and friends. Right now the forecast says a low of 65F, a high of 87F and mostly sunny. Looks perfect to me for Late September.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:00 pm Hard to believe. 2005 is also when we relocated to Houston (again).

3689CEA2-EC3E-4395-9FFA-B7336252A037.png
What a disaster that evacuation was.
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DoctorMu
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DoctorMu
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Major front causing lows in the upper 50s in the Brazos Valley still on tap for Monday and into October.
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snowman65
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:21 am The 12Z GFS suggests a fairly strong cold front arrives early next week.
that would be nice but I don't think there's a snowballs chance lol
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tireman4
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775
FXUS64 KHGX 241807
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
107 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Persistent MVFR deck blankets the region this afternoon and will
be slow to improve though may rise slowly to 3000-3500 feet
21-23z. AMDAR soundings showing thick layer of moisture trapped in
the 1800-3500 layer. Flow through the cloud layer should veer
from the northwest to the north and northeast so expect that even
if skies do go VFR for a few hours late this afternoon that MVFR
decks will resume shortly after 01z (if not sooner). MVFR
overnight then finally with mid to late morning heating expect
skies to scatter out Friday and VFR to ensue.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 953 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020/...





.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...
Quick update with the light drizzle/rain wrapping around through
the area should be shifting southeast through late morning along
with extensive cloud cover. During the afternoon expect skies to
start to scatter out.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 62 84 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 65 85 67 87 69 / 0 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 83 74 85 77 / 10 10 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...45
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:37 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:21 am The 12Z GFS suggests a fairly strong cold front arrives early next week.
that would be nice but I don't think there's a snowballs chance lol
Well all of the models are on board and the discos are pretty confident. It’s been consistent.
Team #NeverSummer
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:48 pm
snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:37 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:21 am The 12Z GFS suggests a fairly strong cold front arrives early next week.
that would be nice but I don't think there's a snowballs chance lol
Well all of the models are on board and the discos are pretty confident. It’s been consistent.
Looks like
The forecast temps have been raised for next week. Dang it.
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Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:16 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:48 pm
snowman65 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:37 pm

that would be nice but I don't think there's a snowballs chance lol
Well all of the models are on board and the discos are pretty confident. It’s been consistent.
Looks like
The forecast temps have been raised for next week. Dang it.
Maybe for your area... I’m in the 50s and 70s all next week
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 250934
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
434 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Sunday Night]...

Widespread wraparound clouds that has lingered over the area for
much of the last day or so, appear to be slowly eroding from the
W and SW this morning. With the skies clearing, the still rather
wet grounds and low dewpoint spreads, we could see the rapid de-
velopment of patchy fog (some possibly dense) across portions of
the CWFA through the rest of this morning. Visibilities may be a
little slow to improve given the very light low-level winds, but
will be expecting these conditions to mix out by late morning...
along with the clouds by afternoon. Warmer temperatures (via the
decreased clouds) are on tap for today...with highs in the lower
to mid 80s.

As surface high pressure develops over the SE U.S., winds across
the region are forecast to become more S/SE by Sat. This onshore
flow is not expected to strengthen too much over the weekend but
it will help draw some Gulf moisture back into the area. Still a
bit wary on the idea of fog developing tonight/early Sat but not
totally ruling it out either. Temperatures will continue to warm
through the weekend...highs in the mid 80s Sat and mid/upper 80s
(maybe even around 90) on Sun. Rain chances will also remain at/
near none for the majority of this forecast period but we cannot
rule out some WAA-type showers early Sun morning along the coast
and the nearshore waters. However, our "best" chances are likely
going to be late Sun night (across our northern counties) as the
next cold front begins it push down from the Plains. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Upper trof digs southward into the Plains and into the eastern
states as ridging takes shape across the western parts of the
country.

Resulting deep layer northerly flow should push a legitimate cold
front across the region and into the Gulf on Monday. PW`s aren`t too
impressive in advance (maybe ~1.5") and llvl flow veers to the sw
ahead of the sfc boundary, but there should be enough convergence
along the front to generate perhaps a thin band of precipitation as
it moves through. Really nice wx should persist in its wake with
lows in the 50s inland & 60s coast, and highs in the 78-84 degree
range.

Upper pattern really doesn`t change all that much for the remainder
of the week and most of the medium range guidance suggests a
reinforcing surge of drier air making its way into the region Thur-
Fri. 47

&&

.MARINE...

Water levels remain about a foot above normal with high tides
peaking a touch over 3 feet, but mostly below coastal flood
concerns. Still may need to keep an eye on things later this weekend
as onshore flow resumes and seas inch upward, but even then main
concern would be a few hours before/after high tide times.

A strong cold front should push into the waters Monday with SCA`s
expected in its wake for moderate-strong north winds and building
seas. With water temps in the upper 70s, wouldn`t doubt if we see
some wind gusts closer to gale force Monday night as thermal
gradient plays a role as well. Winds/seas subside toward midweek,
though it appears we`ll see a reinforcing front move in Thurs-Fri
which would cause them to pick back up. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

We will likely be dealing with the persistent MVFR deck lingering
over the bulk of the CWA at the start of this TAF cycle. But with
this deck slowly eroding from the W/SW...some sites (CLL/LBX) may
be dealing with the development of patchy (possibly dense) fog at
that time. Based on the extrapolated clearing trends, these lower
VIS/CIGS could affect the rest of the sites briefly (13-16Z). VFR
conditions are expected for much of the area by this afternoon as
weak high pressure develops. These clearing skies and light winds
could give us another round of patchy fog/low clouds tonight into
early Sat morning. 41



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 63 85 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 84 68 86 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 75 85 77 87 / 10 0 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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tireman4
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The HGX NWS thinking for our area..

Resulting deep layer northerly flow should push a legitimate cold
front across the region and into the Gulf on Monday. PW`s aren`t too
impressive in advance (maybe ~1.5") and llvl flow veers to the sw
ahead of the sfc boundary, but there should be enough convergence
along the front to generate perhaps a thin band of precipitation as
it moves through. Really nice wx should persist in its wake with
lows in the 50s inland & 60s coast, and highs in the 78-84 degree
range.
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