September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
davidiowx
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

Bring on the cold front! I can't wait to get chili going when I know it isn't going to be 98 with a heat index of 110 in October!
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Well, you know...you say that...but there was an October...that was hot....2004...the hottest on record and Halloween had a high of 88 degrees...
Attachments
Top Ten Warmest Octobers in Houston.png
Top Ten Warmest Octobers in Houston.png (3.81 KiB) Viewed 2756 times
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

I finished with 3.83” in the cylinder gauge. The digital one ran out of juice just after midnight. Days of no sun on the solar cells drained the batteries. It’s always good to have an old-fashioned backup.

It’ll be interesting to read this storm’s post-analysis. I bet if we didn’t have that dry air we all could add about 10” on top of what we got. If I were getting a Ph. D. in Meteorology that would be a good candidate for a thesis topic.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5647
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

1.55 inches IMBY for Beta. I'll take it.

Onto the cold front and battling brown patch!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5647
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:33 pm I finished with 3.83” in the cylinder gauge. The digital one ran out of juice just after midnight. Days of no sun on the solar cells drained the batteries. It’s always good to have an old-fashioned backup.

It’ll be interesting to read this storm’s post-analysis. I bet if we didn’t have that dry air we all could add about 10” on top of what we got. If I were getting a Ph. D. in Meteorology that would be a good candidate for a thesis topic.
Dry air at mid-levels and sheared on top! It's remarkable that Beta performed as well as it did.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:33 pm I finished with 3.83” in the cylinder gauge. The digital one ran out of juice just after midnight. Days of no sun on the solar cells drained the batteries. It’s always good to have an old-fashioned backup.

It’ll be interesting to read this storm’s post-analysis. I bet if we didn’t have that dry air we all could add about 10” on top of what we got. If I were getting a Ph. D. in Meteorology that would be a good candidate for a thesis topic.
Well you know Jason.... ;)
JDsGN
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 10:25 pm
Contact:

After a solid band setup last evening over fairfield and up the 290 corridor I ended up with just under 8" starting sunday afternoon.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Models really over did the affects of dry air on Beta.I think they underestimated the moisture in the lower levels.The HRWF and HMON were the only models that I saw that got Betas structure correct.I received 10 inches of rain.

Just like Imelda last year Beta is another example to never let your guard down no matter how weak the tropical system is.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

On another note the ICON and CMC have not gotten enough credit this season. They showed Beta forming in the southern Gulf and heading north to the middle to upper Texas coast before even Sally developed. Both of those models have done a good job this year when it comes to genesis.

FYI Beta is the first Greek named storm to hit the USA.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 240020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
720 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Large area of wrap around moisture continues to blanket the region
bringing a mix of 2500-3500ft ceilings near 00z that should
continue to lower overnight with IFR conditions expected to start
between 03-09z from UTS area expanding southward into the IAH/HOU
terminals. MVFR should prevail throughout the late night through
late morning hours where the ceilings don`t lower into IFR. Expect
that to go with IFR ceilings area or patchy fog will develop and
lower VISBY into the 3-5 mile range as well with the lowest CIGS.
Improving conditions after 15z and by 20z most sites but UTS/CXO
should be VFR to SKC. Throughout the period expect winds to vary
from 330-020 typically in the 4-10kt range.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 354 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020/...





.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Beta is now a post tropical system and has moved off to LA. Looking
at the latest radar loop, looking like all associated rain is just
about out of SETX, which for most of us in the CWA could not happen
fast enough. Rain fall totals over the past few days reached over 12
inches in some areas. Well, happy to say, no rain in the forecast
right now. Looking to see some foggy conditions tonight in some
areas in the northern counties and could reach the some of the
southern counties as well in the morning. Tonight, lows are looking
to be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow the skies are expected to
start breaking out and should see some sun. With humidity dropping
to around 54% and mixed with the light northwesterly breeze, its
looking like a pleasant day for SETX.

35


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

On this first full day of astronomical autumn, a potential taste of
fall-like weather is in the cards for SE Texas in the form of a cold
front which looks to approach the area by the middle of next week.
For the time being, however, we enter into a period of relatively
benign and dry weather heading into the weekend. In the wake of
Beta`s departure, broad surface high pressure over the southeastern
CONUS and light offshore winds should provide for a fairly pleasant
weekend. Global models continue to indicate the development of a
cutoff upper low over Western/SW Texas by late Friday, with an
associated jet streak at 250mb increasing in strength by early
Saturday. With much of the CWA within the left front quadrant of
this speed max, this would normally point to additional rainfall
developing over the weekend given the favorable divergence aloft
that this pattern provides. However, the drier airmass in place over
the region (surface PWs will remain around 1-1.25") should inhibit
widespread development of showers and storms. In general, look for
seasonable highs through the end of the weekend (mid to upper 80s)
with dew points in the upper 60s. All in all, a fairly pleasant
reprieve following the substantial rain over the past few days.

With surface high pressure shifting eastward towards the end of the
weekend a return to an onshore flow pattern should come by Monday.
Despite this, the expectedly weak pressure gradient should prevent a
surge of low-level Gulf moisture from reaching the coast, keeping
dew points in the high 60s to lower 70s. Highs should rebound
somewhat by the early part of the week, with most locations due to
approach 90 degrees once again on Monday. Meanwhile, by Monday
afternoon, a cold front extending from a deepening surface low over
the Great Plains region looks to push into the central CONUS,
eventually making its way into the Southern Plains by Tuesday. This
looks to be our first real front of substance this season, with both
GFS and ECMWF solutions indicating a stronger frontogenesis signal
in the 850-700mb layer than in previous FROPAs over the past few
weeks. While confidence in the timing of this feature is low, the
boundary should traverse SE TX on late Tuesday and into Wednesday,
with northerly winds in its wake providing a surge of cooler and
drier air. With guidance indicating the potential for dew points
in the 40s by Wednesday afternoon, things could certainly feel
fall- like by mid-week. After the tropical season we`ve had thus
far, I imagine this will be a welcome change!

Cady


.MARINE...

Remnants of Beta continue to move northeast over the Louisiana/Lower
Mississippi River tonight into Friday. This flow pattern will keep
moderate northwest winds gusting from 15 to 20 knots at times this
evening. Seas will gradually decrease to 2 - 4 feet. With that said,
will continue SCEC flags for all nearshore and offshore waters until
early Thursday morning. Conditions will improve late tonight into
the weekend with winds and seas falling below headline criteria.
Light offshore winds and seas up to 3 feet are expected through next
week.

In terms of coastal conditions, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect until 7AM Thursday for the Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston
Island and Matagorda Island. This is due to persisting moderate
offshore flow and a potential for minor coastal flooding near the
time of high tide late tonight. Conditions should improve early
Thursday morning with no coastal flood issues expected at this time.

05


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall has departed and the water levels in the river and bayou
systems are doing the same. San Bernard still creeping up in few
locations and may get into flood near East Bernard with a small
second rise tonight/Thu morning. Boling has crested in flood and
starting a slow fall while downstream at Old Ocean the updated
forecast does not reach flood now but crests above bankfull shy of
flood by about half a foot. Down in Matagorda county on the Tres
Palacios it just dropped below flood near Midfield. Clear creek the
levels continue to steadily fall and only a shrinking area below
FM528 is still in flood but these too are falling steadily.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 64 80 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 82 65 85 67 / 0 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 83 72 82 75 / 0 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Thursday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


AVIATION...45
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 76 guests