September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Waded
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Rather funky looking radar image.
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jasons2k
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Seems like Beta is actually still on the move and things will be winding down over the Houston metro area in the next few hours. Still another band or two to pivot across before we hit the back side. I’ve had 2.73” since midnight.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 230855
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
355 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Post-tropical storm Beta will slowly move eastward through the day
today getting to the Lousiana border by the afternoon. Luckily
the western side of Beta remains fairly rain-free, so our chance
of rain drops once it get to the east of the area. This still
leaves a chance of rain through the late morning for areas
generally east of I-45. Rain rates within the bands have dropped
considerably compared to yesterday, but saturated lands and slowly
receding creeks and bayous may still lead to flooding potential
for the eastern counties through the early morning. No longer
expecting the widespread flooding threat, so the Flash Flood
Watch has been cancelled. This evening through Thursday night will
be relatively calm with not much of a chance or rain or any other
significant weather.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will be on to cooler side with
highs in the low 80s south of I-45 and in the upper 70s to the
north. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s both nights with the
warmer temperatures closer to the coast.

Fowler

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Long term period will continue the relative quiet trend (no
complaints here). An upper level low will be developing over Texas
over the weekend, but we are not expecting much, if any shower
activity from it. This is due to there not being much moisture for
it to work with (PWATS down to around an inch) and convective
temperatures will not be hit to trigger afternoon storms. The best
chance (which is still slight) will happen Sunday afternoon near
the coast as the upper level low moves off the coast providing
some better upper level support. The aforementioned upper level
low will be sliding eastward across the northern Gulf coast
through midweek as its picked up by a digging trough that moves
across the Great Lakes region. Now this trough may be able to
give us the first shot at a decent cold front this season late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Now this is the very end of the period
and obviously things can and will change, but this cold front
could be the one to get us into the fall season.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR/IFR conditions will be slow to improve for
most sites as the remnants of Beta continue to work their way
eastward across the area. Almost all RA/SHRA activity is expected
to be move off to the east of all TAFs by late this morning or
early this afternoon. Ceiling improvement and eventual VFR might
hold off until late tonight or early Thursday morning. Winds will
all eventually become N to NW after the remnant center moves off
to the east. 42

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to strong winds and elevated seas will continue today and
tonight as Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta continues to slowly move
further east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Conditions will
improve tonight with all bays and Gulf waters falling below SCEC/SCA
criteria. Friday into early next week, winds generally between 5-10
KTS and seas between 1-3 FT can be expected.

Along the coasts, the Coastal Flood Warning will be allowed to
expire at 7 AM CDT Wednesday (today) along the inner coastal regions
of SE Texas. A Coastal Flood Advisory will replace the Coastal Flood
Warning along the coastal area of Freeport westward into Matagorda
Peninsula and will be in effect through Thursday morning. For the
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula, a Coastal Flood Warning will
continue through at least Thursday morning. Also, it is likely that
the Gulf facing beaches continue to experience rip currents.

24

&&

.TROPICAL...

Beta has become post tropical over southeast Texas and will
continue to move northeastward towards Louisiana through this
afternoon before dissipating. Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin,
Teddy and Paulette have also become post tropical.

As of writing this discussion, the NHC currently has no areas of
potential tropical development in the next five days - which is
a-okay with this forecaster.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 79 65 80 62 83 / 20 10 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 80 68 82 66 86 / 70 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 73 83 74 84 / 40 20 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Matagorda Islands.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT
Thursday for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Matagorda Islands.

Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 AM this morning to 1
PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal
waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...42
MARINE...24
TROPICAL...Fowler
redneckweather
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She gone. Now all eyes on next weeks cold front. Looks like a good one!
Cpv17
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How come radar estimates are so off? They only had my area getting around 5” of rain total when I actually ended up with 9.3”.
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srainhoutx
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redneckweather wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:26 am She gone. Now all eyes on next weeks cold front. Looks like a good one!
There appears to be a very deep trough digging into the Upper Mid West and the East. That trough looks to deliver a strong early season cold front well to the South including the Eastern half of Texas. If it verifies we can safely say tropical mischief for Texas is done for 2020. We are expecting well below normal temperatures across the Smokey Mountains mid next week with highs in the 40's and lows possibly in the upper 20's. Fall is here folks.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cpv17
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:34 am
redneckweather wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:26 am She gone. Now all eyes on next weeks cold front. Looks like a good one!
There appears to be a very deep trough digging into the Upper Mid West and the East. That trough looks to deliver a strong early season cold front well to the South including the Eastern half of Texas. If it verifies we can safely say tropical mischief for Texas is done for 2020. We are expecting well below normal temperatures across the Smokey Mountains mid next week with highs in the 40's and lows possibly in the upper 20's. Fall is here folks.
Aka sick season for me is here lol
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djmike
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So long Beta. Good riddance. Got some beneficial rain and thats all I wanted without the flooding. Sun-Wed 4.00” for Beaumont. Think north of us was little more maybe 5-6”, but we got lucky with no flooding. Hopefully thing in Houston start getting back to normal soon when the waters recede. ...Now, wheres that cold front?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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tireman4
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:34 am
redneckweather wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:26 am She gone. Now all eyes on next weeks cold front. Looks like a good one!
There appears to be a very deep trough digging into the Upper Mid West and the East. That trough looks to deliver a strong early season cold front well to the South including the Eastern half of Texas. If it verifies we can safely say tropical mischief for Texas is done for 2020. We are expecting well below normal temperatures across the Smokey Mountains mid next week with highs in the 40's and lows possibly in the upper 20's. Fall is here folks.
Stepping down, sir?
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:02 pm Have y’all seen the infrared loop? This is crazy. It’s raining hard here but the infrared shows practically nothing. This is a most unusual system for sure.
Nearly a naked swirl delivering heavy rain - just wow.
davidiowx
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Bring on the cold front! I can't wait to get chili going when I know it isn't going to be 98 with a heat index of 110 in October!
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tireman4
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Well, you know...you say that...but there was an October...that was hot....2004...the hottest on record and Halloween had a high of 88 degrees...
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jasons2k
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I finished with 3.83” in the cylinder gauge. The digital one ran out of juice just after midnight. Days of no sun on the solar cells drained the batteries. It’s always good to have an old-fashioned backup.

It’ll be interesting to read this storm’s post-analysis. I bet if we didn’t have that dry air we all could add about 10” on top of what we got. If I were getting a Ph. D. in Meteorology that would be a good candidate for a thesis topic.
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DoctorMu
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1.55 inches IMBY for Beta. I'll take it.

Onto the cold front and battling brown patch!
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:33 pm I finished with 3.83” in the cylinder gauge. The digital one ran out of juice just after midnight. Days of no sun on the solar cells drained the batteries. It’s always good to have an old-fashioned backup.

It’ll be interesting to read this storm’s post-analysis. I bet if we didn’t have that dry air we all could add about 10” on top of what we got. If I were getting a Ph. D. in Meteorology that would be a good candidate for a thesis topic.
Dry air at mid-levels and sheared on top! It's remarkable that Beta performed as well as it did.
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tireman4
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:33 pm I finished with 3.83” in the cylinder gauge. The digital one ran out of juice just after midnight. Days of no sun on the solar cells drained the batteries. It’s always good to have an old-fashioned backup.

It’ll be interesting to read this storm’s post-analysis. I bet if we didn’t have that dry air we all could add about 10” on top of what we got. If I were getting a Ph. D. in Meteorology that would be a good candidate for a thesis topic.
Well you know Jason.... ;)
JDsGN
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After a solid band setup last evening over fairfield and up the 290 corridor I ended up with just under 8" starting sunday afternoon.
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don
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Models really over did the affects of dry air on Beta.I think they underestimated the moisture in the lower levels.The HRWF and HMON were the only models that I saw that got Betas structure correct.I received 10 inches of rain.

Just like Imelda last year Beta is another example to never let your guard down no matter how weak the tropical system is.
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don
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On another note the ICON and CMC have not gotten enough credit this season. They showed Beta forming in the southern Gulf and heading north to the middle to upper Texas coast before even Sally developed. Both of those models have done a good job this year when it comes to genesis.

FYI Beta is the first Greek named storm to hit the USA.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 240020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
720 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Large area of wrap around moisture continues to blanket the region
bringing a mix of 2500-3500ft ceilings near 00z that should
continue to lower overnight with IFR conditions expected to start
between 03-09z from UTS area expanding southward into the IAH/HOU
terminals. MVFR should prevail throughout the late night through
late morning hours where the ceilings don`t lower into IFR. Expect
that to go with IFR ceilings area or patchy fog will develop and
lower VISBY into the 3-5 mile range as well with the lowest CIGS.
Improving conditions after 15z and by 20z most sites but UTS/CXO
should be VFR to SKC. Throughout the period expect winds to vary
from 330-020 typically in the 4-10kt range.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 354 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020/...





.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Beta is now a post tropical system and has moved off to LA. Looking
at the latest radar loop, looking like all associated rain is just
about out of SETX, which for most of us in the CWA could not happen
fast enough. Rain fall totals over the past few days reached over 12
inches in some areas. Well, happy to say, no rain in the forecast
right now. Looking to see some foggy conditions tonight in some
areas in the northern counties and could reach the some of the
southern counties as well in the morning. Tonight, lows are looking
to be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow the skies are expected to
start breaking out and should see some sun. With humidity dropping
to around 54% and mixed with the light northwesterly breeze, its
looking like a pleasant day for SETX.

35


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

On this first full day of astronomical autumn, a potential taste of
fall-like weather is in the cards for SE Texas in the form of a cold
front which looks to approach the area by the middle of next week.
For the time being, however, we enter into a period of relatively
benign and dry weather heading into the weekend. In the wake of
Beta`s departure, broad surface high pressure over the southeastern
CONUS and light offshore winds should provide for a fairly pleasant
weekend. Global models continue to indicate the development of a
cutoff upper low over Western/SW Texas by late Friday, with an
associated jet streak at 250mb increasing in strength by early
Saturday. With much of the CWA within the left front quadrant of
this speed max, this would normally point to additional rainfall
developing over the weekend given the favorable divergence aloft
that this pattern provides. However, the drier airmass in place over
the region (surface PWs will remain around 1-1.25") should inhibit
widespread development of showers and storms. In general, look for
seasonable highs through the end of the weekend (mid to upper 80s)
with dew points in the upper 60s. All in all, a fairly pleasant
reprieve following the substantial rain over the past few days.

With surface high pressure shifting eastward towards the end of the
weekend a return to an onshore flow pattern should come by Monday.
Despite this, the expectedly weak pressure gradient should prevent a
surge of low-level Gulf moisture from reaching the coast, keeping
dew points in the high 60s to lower 70s. Highs should rebound
somewhat by the early part of the week, with most locations due to
approach 90 degrees once again on Monday. Meanwhile, by Monday
afternoon, a cold front extending from a deepening surface low over
the Great Plains region looks to push into the central CONUS,
eventually making its way into the Southern Plains by Tuesday. This
looks to be our first real front of substance this season, with both
GFS and ECMWF solutions indicating a stronger frontogenesis signal
in the 850-700mb layer than in previous FROPAs over the past few
weeks. While confidence in the timing of this feature is low, the
boundary should traverse SE TX on late Tuesday and into Wednesday,
with northerly winds in its wake providing a surge of cooler and
drier air. With guidance indicating the potential for dew points
in the 40s by Wednesday afternoon, things could certainly feel
fall- like by mid-week. After the tropical season we`ve had thus
far, I imagine this will be a welcome change!

Cady


.MARINE...

Remnants of Beta continue to move northeast over the Louisiana/Lower
Mississippi River tonight into Friday. This flow pattern will keep
moderate northwest winds gusting from 15 to 20 knots at times this
evening. Seas will gradually decrease to 2 - 4 feet. With that said,
will continue SCEC flags for all nearshore and offshore waters until
early Thursday morning. Conditions will improve late tonight into
the weekend with winds and seas falling below headline criteria.
Light offshore winds and seas up to 3 feet are expected through next
week.

In terms of coastal conditions, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect until 7AM Thursday for the Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston
Island and Matagorda Island. This is due to persisting moderate
offshore flow and a potential for minor coastal flooding near the
time of high tide late tonight. Conditions should improve early
Thursday morning with no coastal flood issues expected at this time.

05


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall has departed and the water levels in the river and bayou
systems are doing the same. San Bernard still creeping up in few
locations and may get into flood near East Bernard with a small
second rise tonight/Thu morning. Boling has crested in flood and
starting a slow fall while downstream at Old Ocean the updated
forecast does not reach flood now but crests above bankfull shy of
flood by about half a foot. Down in Matagorda county on the Tres
Palacios it just dropped below flood near Midfield. Clear creek the
levels continue to steadily fall and only a shrinking area below
FM528 is still in flood but these too are falling steadily.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 64 80 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 82 65 85 67 / 0 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 83 72 82 75 / 0 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Thursday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


AVIATION...45
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