September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:49 pm

FXUS64 KHGX 192207
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
507 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The rest of today and this evening will be pleasant. Highs will stay
in the mid to upper 80s and breezy conditions across the CWA. Lows
tonight will reach the mid 60s in the northern counties and low to
mid 70s along the coast. Sadly, this is all due to Tropical Storm
Beta creeping near the SETX coastline. Though landfall is not until
Tuesday, the system has moved in from the southwest and was moving
away until today when it started to make the turn northwestward.
Tomorrow morning, coastal counties are expected to start seeing the
outer bands with higher chances of rain and winds increase along the
coastal counties. While the breezy conditions are expected to stay
along the coast tomorrow, some higher gusts could be felt inland as
far as the I-59 corridor.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Tropical Storm Beta is still moving towards the SETX coastline.
Beginning Sunday night, the chances of rain increase quite a bit
with POPs in the mid 90s along the coast and upper 80s along the I-
10 corridor. Northern counties still see 70s but will mainly be
effected by the bands rapping around the system and not just a
continuous rainfall. As the system continues to move through the
area POPs remain high through Wednesday. Most of the higher
accumulation will remain south of the I-10 corridor.

Winds are expected to be increasing as the storm moves into the area
Monday morning. Tropical Storm force winds will be expected in the
SE forecast area with lighter winds in the NW area. Thursday winds
are expected to decrease as the storm moves across the souther CWA.
Total rain amounts from the first onset through the weekend are
expected to be 20 inches in the southern counties with lower amounts
away from the coast. Northern counties are expecting up to 12
inches, with lower amounts in the far northern counties.

Current guidance has the storm moving out of the CWA on Thursday.
Winds will be decreasing in the western CWA on Wednesday afternoon
and over night, the eastern CWA will start to decrease. POPs will
also start decreasing Thursday morning and almost diminish by the
weekend. Through the first half of the week, highs will be in the
upper 70s in the northern counties and mid 80s coastal. Lows will
get to the upper 60s in the northern counties and the upper 70s
coastal. With the extra cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures will
not be fluctuating too much until the system moves out of the area.
Thursday, the highs will increase to the mid to upper 80s and even
peak in the low 90s by Sunday. Lows will still be in the mid to
upper 60s for the northern counties and mid to upper 70s along the
coast.

&&

.TROPICAL...

Tropical Storm Beta makes its way to the SE Texas coast and is
expected to make landfall in the Matagorda Bay area on Tuesday. Upon
making landfall the storm is expected to turn northeastward along
the coastline. The center is expected to be in the southeastern CWA
on Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday afternoon, the current track has
the system downgraded to a depression over the southeastern Vernon
Parish, LA.

The main concerns with Tropical Storm Beta will be the prolonged
rainfall with coastal areas expected to reach over a foot of rain.
During high tide on Sunday and Tuesday is the most dangerous times
for storm surges and areas within those warnings should pay
attention to the forecast and to follow the advice of local
officials. The onset of tropical storm force winds are expected
Sunday late and expected to last through the first half of the week.

Seas in the coastal waters are expected to increase tomorrow to 10
to 20 ft seas with larger seas in the outer waters and moves into
the southwestern marine zones with 20-24ft seas through Monday. On
Tuesday, the seas are expected to be at 10-15ft as he system moves
along the coast just on shore. On Wednesday, southwestern marine
zones will start seeing seas subside to about 5 ft and by Thursday
morning, all marine zones will be around 5ft. Tropical storm force
winds will be felt in the outer marine zones as early as tomorrow
and last through most of Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions for the TAF sites but breezy today as TS Beta makes
the turn west to move towards the SE Texas coastline. Current
analysis has the storm making landfall in the vicinity of Matagorda
on Tuesday, then turning northeastward towards the Dickinson area and
being in that area Wednesday Morning. With that, tomorrow is when
the coastal TAF sites are looking to get impacted with the bands
from TS Beta with lower ceilings and rain. Depending on
intensification, some of the showers could be heavier and restrict
visibility to IFR conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 63 82 66 75 68 / 0 40 50 80 70
Houston (IAH) 68 80 70 78 71 / 30 60 70 80 80
Galveston (GLS) 74 84 77 84 78 / 60 80 90 90 90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands...Southern Liberty.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

Flash Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday evening
for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Southern Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

GM...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LW/WW/TC/BK

unome
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by unome » Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:57 pm

we have a Tropical Storm Warning and a Flash Flood Watch for our zip code in Cypress, 70 miles inland

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... n=-95.6987

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Rip76
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Rip76 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:01 pm

Scott747 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:48 pm
18z HWRF makes landfall Monday morning in Matagorda Bay as a moderate TS. It doesn't drive it w like it has been and turns more to the n moving between Houston and Austin.
This is my current thinking as well.

TexasBreeze
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by TexasBreeze » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:22 pm

Was it supposed to be stationary today? Turned briefly then stopped.

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jasons2k
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by jasons2k » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:01 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:48 pm
As long as we manage at least a couple inches of rain, I couldn't care less what this storm does otherwise.
Same here, as long as it doesn't turn into a hurricane and start causing real problems for people. We just need some rain from at least *one* tropical system this year.

Some of my thoughts this evening: This is a really difficult forecast in terms of intensity, the effect of the dry air, where any training bands set up, and for how long. We all know that if we have a tropical low to our west or southwest, it doesn't take long for training bands to start causing flooding issues.

I'm not expecting this storm to be a repeat of Don and I don't think this is going to dissipate and totally bust for SE Texas. So far, it reminds me a lot of TS Bill from 2015, but without the north hook after landfall. It's probably going to fight and struggle with that dry air the whole way, which should keep the intensity in check, but we still need to watch out for the potential flooding threat.

I think one of the keys will be whether or not Beta can establish a sustained core overnight into tomorrow morning. If the storm can establish a persistent, circular core and shear drops off, it has a much better chance of fighting off the dry air. If it continues to just pulse up and down into tomorrow, it's gonna run out of time....

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:26 pm

On the HWRF it moves out pretty fast. Probably wouldn’t be much of a problem if that verifies.

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Katdaddy
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Katdaddy » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:59 pm

I like what I see on the satellite IR imagine. Weak and fading away. Yes this could change overnight as we all know but I will take a little positivity.

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Rip76
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Rip76 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:11 pm

Poof?

So the winds we’re feeling tonight, are from what’s out there or from a “front?”
Or the pressure difference.

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Katdaddy » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:19 pm

The NE winds and drier air is thanks to TS Beta.

davidiowx
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by davidiowx » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:35 pm

Beta sure doesn’t look like much tonight.. tomorrow will be telling (good or bad) but the mesoscale models coming into play don’t really show much of a major impact. As in it’s nothing we can’t handle outside of coastal flooding due to surge. That could very well change come tomorrow. Time will tell!

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