September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
TexasBreeze
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Storm surge warning in effect.
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don
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NHC now forecasting Beta to stay a tropical storm. Track remains the same though. One thing Ive noticed is that Beta has a pretty large windfield.
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unome
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well the 4 PM sounds better, or at least a little less concerning, though I will still keep a close eye, as should everyone close to the possile affected areas, especially those near the coast

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Beta

There remain a lot of uncertainties in the intensity forecast.
First, the global models still suggest that the ongoing
southwesterly shear may not subside much before landfall. Second,
GOES-16 air mass imagery shows abundant upper-level dry air over the
western Gulf of Mexico, including near the storm center. Third,
surface observations show a drier low-level airmass in place over
southeastern Texas, and some of this may be getting entrained into
the storm. The intensity guidance has again trended downward, and
several of the models now forecast Beta not to strengthen at all as
it approaches Texas. Because the sea surface temperatures are warm
and the shear is not prohibitively strong, the intensity forecast,
while reduced from the earlier forecast, will show slow
strengthening to a peak intensity of 60 kt before landfall. This
forecast remains above the guidance, and additional downward
adjustments may be needed tonight or on Sunday.
davidiowx
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Just got an alert Tropical Storm warnings issued for Ft Bend now
biggerbyte
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This system is looking puny at best on radar. All the negatives that are disturbing or will disturb its progress with strengthening are in play. I would expect just about anything with this, but not anything above its current status.

This thing could even go poof as it gets closer to Texas. A lot of people are going to be very upset if that happens. It is my opinion, as I would join anyone in the model mayhem camp, that the reason this is not stirring much hoopla is because we have pretty much developed a "cry wolf" situation. Many are just not buying it. This year has been especially bad, but really things have never been peachy. This has been going on for years.

So, now we wait for now casting time.
Andrew
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This was always going to be a heavy rain event for whoever got it and not so much of a wind event, but models at this point don't even show that. Of course, we need to closely monitor this storm, especially the mesoscale models, but most of the global models don't show anything we can't handle and actually show this storm dissipating pretty quickly after landfall. I am a little skeptical they are overdoing the dry air intrusion, but we will see what the trend is for the next 24 hours.
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Tx2005
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Were the models predicting the massive rain amounts from Imelda in the days before, or was it a surprise?
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don
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Tropical storm warnings and a flash flood watch have been issued. Local NWS is calling for peak rainfall amounts of 8-12+ inches.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 45 mph

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 8-12 inches, with locally higher
amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
Cromagnum
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As long as we manage at least a couple inches of rain, I couldn't care less what this storm does otherwise.
biggerbyte
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Same here. If we can get some decent rains minus all the tropical floods, well that would obviously be nice.
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Texaspirate11
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One of the "S"'s is going right over my area on galveston bay....
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Cpv17
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:57 pm One of the "S"'s is going right over my area on galveston bay....
You’re in the 15 to 20” zone.
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snowman65
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I'm going out on a limb here and say if you're within 10 miles of the coastline from Galveston to Lake Charles you should prepare and expect 10-12" of rain as a minimum. Just my opinion, of course.
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Katdaddy
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Here is the Flash Flood Watch that was issued earlier.
I am in the 15-20" area as well so we shall see but
glad Beta has not increased thanks to the dry air

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
428 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-200530-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0005.200920T1200Z-200923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Austin-Brazoria Islands-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Inland Brazoria-
Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-
Matagorda Islands-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Southern Liberty-
Waller-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Baytown, Bellville, Brookshire, Cleveland, Clute, Columbus,
Conroe, Dayton, Devers, Dickinson, Eagle Lake, Edna, El Campo,
First Colony, Freeport, Friendswood, Galveston, Ganado,
Hempstead, Houston, La Marque, Lake Jackson, League City,
Liberty, Mission Bend, Missouri City, Mont Belvieu,
Old River-Winfree, Palacios, Pasadena, Pearland, Pecan Grove,
Prairie View, Rosenberg, Sealy, Stowell, Sugar Land,
Surfside Beach, Texas City, The Woodlands, Waller, Weimar,
Wharton, and Winnie
428 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texas...including the following counties...in south
central Texas...Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In
southeast Texas...Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island
and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...
Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Waller and
Wharton.

* From Sunday morning through Tuesday evening

* Prolonged heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Beta will have the
potential to produce up to 20 inches of rainfall along the
coast and around 8-12 inches inland.

* This prolonged period of rainfall will have the potential to
produce life threatening street and structure flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Scott747
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The 4 pm track actually shifted a little s to Port O'Connor.

18z GFS is a few mb's weaker at landfall. Stalls for half a day and creeps up the coast and offshore enough that it pulses up and down. Vorticity is strong enough that it would remain gusty along the beach the entire weak. Erosion would be significant
unome
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Waded
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For most SE Texas, it doesn't like the wind or rain will be anything beyond we see routinely every spring. Yawn. Why would the boards be active?
unome
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HGX 4 PM Video Update on Beta

https://youtu.be/y8ZAqEHIZZI
unome
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NOAA Tides and Currents - Tropical Storm Beta - Quick Look

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... /Beta.html
Scott747
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18z HWRF makes landfall Monday morning in Matagorda Bay as a moderate TS. It doesn't drive it w like it has been and turns more to the n moving between Houston and Austin.
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