September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Texaspirate11
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Texaspirate11 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:57 pm

One of the "S"'s is going right over my area on galveston bay....
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Cpv17
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:08 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:57 pm
One of the "S"'s is going right over my area on galveston bay....
You’re in the 15 to 20” zone.

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snowman65
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by snowman65 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:14 pm

I'm going out on a limb here and say if you're within 10 miles of the coastline from Galveston to Lake Charles you should prepare and expect 10-12" of rain as a minimum. Just my opinion, of course.

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Katdaddy » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:17 pm

Here is the Flash Flood Watch that was issued earlier.
I am in the 15-20" area as well so we shall see but
glad Beta has not increased thanks to the dry air

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
428 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-200530-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0005.200920T1200Z-200923T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Austin-Brazoria Islands-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Inland Brazoria-
Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-
Matagorda Islands-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Southern Liberty-
Waller-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Baytown, Bellville, Brookshire, Cleveland, Clute, Columbus,
Conroe, Dayton, Devers, Dickinson, Eagle Lake, Edna, El Campo,
First Colony, Freeport, Friendswood, Galveston, Ganado,
Hempstead, Houston, La Marque, Lake Jackson, League City,
Liberty, Mission Bend, Missouri City, Mont Belvieu,
Old River-Winfree, Palacios, Pasadena, Pearland, Pecan Grove,
Prairie View, Rosenberg, Sealy, Stowell, Sugar Land,
Surfside Beach, Texas City, The Woodlands, Waller, Weimar,
Wharton, and Winnie
428 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texas...including the following counties...in south
central Texas...Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In
southeast Texas...Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island
and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...
Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Waller and
Wharton.

* From Sunday morning through Tuesday evening

* Prolonged heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Beta will have the
potential to produce up to 20 inches of rainfall along the
coast and around 8-12 inches inland.

* This prolonged period of rainfall will have the potential to
produce life threatening street and structure flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Scott747 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:23 pm

The 4 pm track actually shifted a little s to Port O'Connor.

18z GFS is a few mb's weaker at landfall. Stalls for half a day and creeps up the coast and offshore enough that it pulses up and down. Vorticity is strong enough that it would remain gusty along the beach the entire weak. Erosion would be significant

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by unome » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:34 pm

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1

always on top of things & a wealth of information

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Waded » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:41 pm

For most SE Texas, it doesn't like the wind or rain will be anything beyond we see routinely every spring. Yawn. Why would the boards be active?

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by unome » Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:35 pm

HGX 4 PM Video Update on Beta

https://youtu.be/y8ZAqEHIZZI

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by unome » Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:41 pm

NOAA Tides and Currents - Tropical Storm Beta - Quick Look

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... /Beta.html

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Scott747 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:48 pm

18z HWRF makes landfall Monday morning in Matagorda Bay as a moderate TS. It doesn't drive it w like it has been and turns more to the n moving between Houston and Austin.

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