September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stormlover2020
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Stormlover2020 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:33 pm

I hear ya but this year it’s been west bias all year even Bastardi was talking about it couple of days ago.

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srainhoutx
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:36 pm

Hot off the presses. Here's the WPC 3 day QPF forecast just issued.
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Cpv17
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:37 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:36 pm
Hot off the presses. Here's the WPC 3 day QPF forecast just issued.
Wow, now that’s much more like it.

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Rip76
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Rip76 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:37 pm

Wow ok.

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:40 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:36 pm
Hot off the presses. Here's the WPC 3 day QPF forecast just issued.
Yep.

We have tropical storm conditions predicted now in CLL from Monday night - Wednesday night.

unome
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by unome » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:41 pm

I'm sure that everyone is just plain worn out from the never-ending onslaught that is 2020, but I have never seen a more complacent reaction by locals near us to a possible hurricane raking the coast of Texas. 3-day QPF for us (70 miles inland) is currently 7-10 inches, wind potential currently 39-57mph

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=hgx

1 PM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
100 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...BETA MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 92.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast
later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 92.7 West. Beta is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (3 km/h), and a slow motion toward
the west should continue into Sunday. A slow northwestward motion
is forecast to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and continue
through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will
slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that,
slow strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to be at or
near hurricane strength Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area by late Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or
Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as
early as tonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch
area along the south Texas coast Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long-lived rainfall
event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is
expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with
isolated totals of 10 inches beginning Saturday across southern
Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and
urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional
heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible
through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas
coast.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a combination
of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:45 pm

Right. The nation, TWC, etc. are literally sleeping on Beta. "At least there's football."

TexasBreeze
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by TexasBreeze » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:48 pm

don wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:20 pm
TexasBreeze wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:02 pm
Kinda surprised that there are no flood watches posted anywhere, even on the coastal counties for rainfall.
They may not make any track changes at 4, but maybe lower the forecast strength a bit and keep the watches/warnings the same. Just my guess opinion though.
They will probably issue watches and inland warnings this afternoon i would think.
After seeing the new qpf 3 day map, you are probably right! 7-10 inches for my area (Spring).

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Rip76
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Rip76 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:50 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:45 pm
Right. The nation, TWC, etc. are literally sleeping on Beta. "At least there's football."
Bad football.

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:53 pm

I think the Euro has a reasonable heterogeneous pattern of rainfall. Some areas will get 3 inches of rain, while other areas a few miles away could see 15+ inches. It just depends on how the bands set up, speed of storm movement, etc.
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