September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
davidiowx
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by davidiowx » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:28 pm

And looks like it’s heading east at hr 96 or possibly stationary

Edit: on the Euro model run, I failed to clarify that!

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don
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by don » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:38 pm

Yep 12z EURO looks similar to the HWRF showing the system going further inland before being pulled by the trough to the northeast as a remnant low. I think the dry air being pulled from the west is going to make the storm lopsided with most of the moisture north and east of the center. Similar to how the 12z HRWF looks.BTW Wxman57 just stated that some places could see 10+ inches of rain MAYBE.
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Stormlover2020
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Stormlover2020 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:42 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:24 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:23 pm
Euro has been west bias all year
It’s not just the Euro that shows this. HWRF shows it too. And we’d probably get a lot more rain with that track.
Gfs, icon, cmc, Ukmet, says not so fast so we shall see

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Rip76
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Rip76 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:51 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:26 pm
European QPF through hour 78
Ouch. 2” for my area through 78.

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:52 pm

Rip76 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:51 pm
srainhoutx wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:26 pm
European QPF through hour 78
Ouch. 2” for my area through 78.
Same here. For some reason not much precip even on the dirty side.

TexasBreeze
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by TexasBreeze » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:02 pm

Kinda surprised that there are no flood watches posted anywhere, even on the coastal counties for rainfall.
They may not make any track changes at 4, but maybe lower the forecast strength a bit and keep the watches/warnings the same. Just my guess opinion though.

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:18 pm

Houston to CLL are on the dirty side assuming landfall is from Corpus to Matagorda Bay. It's going to rain. A lot. Presumably not Harvey style, but...

Dry air will be wrapping on the southside, so there's going to be a GoM firehose set up with slow movement on the east side.

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Rip76
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Rip76 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:20 pm

Haha a GOM firehose

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don
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by don » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:20 pm

TexasBreeze wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:02 pm
Kinda surprised that there are no flood watches posted anywhere, even on the coastal counties for rainfall.
They may not make any track changes at 4, but maybe lower the forecast strength a bit and keep the watches/warnings the same. Just my guess opinion though.
They will probably issue watches and inland warnings this afternoon i would think.

Cromagnum
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cromagnum » Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:23 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:23 pm
Euro has been west bias all year
Euro tends to be more west biased on stronger systems. Weaker systems, not so much.

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