September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
weatherguy425
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by weatherguy425 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:45 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:27 am
I guess the dry air is what could possibly keep most of the precipitation offshore and we could end up getting very little action? Who knows?
Dry air southwesterly wind shear. But, storm structure is hard to predict and can certainly evolve over time even after landfall (if it happens). Like you said, a very slow movement post landfall can’t totally be ruled out yet. That could help focus additional rain-even if it is no longer a tropical system.

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Rip76
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Rip76 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:50 am

Looks like a bit of convection may be trying to set up near the center as we speak.

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cromagnum » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:00 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:27 am
I guess the dry air is what could possibly keep most of the precipitation offshore and we could end up getting very little action? Who knows?
Dangerous to think we aren't getting anything from this.

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:17 am

Just as I suspected, the NHC shifted their cone further west. It now has it going inland instead of hugging the coastline.

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Dls2010r » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:20 am

Is that good or bad?

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Rip76 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:21 am

Dls2010r wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:20 am
Is that good or bad?
For those needing rain, it's good. (Not all at once of course)

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Dls2010r » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:23 am

Rip76 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:21 am
[quote=Dls2010r post_id=91499 time=<a href="tel:1600528820">1600528820</a> user_id=11447]
Is that good or bad?
For those needing rain, it's good. (Not all at once of course)
[/quote]

👍🏻

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cromagnum » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:25 am

We are still going to get a lot of rain from this.

Image

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:29 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:25 am
We are still going to get a lot of rain from this.

Image
With it basically sitting over us for 2-3 days, I’m not sure how forecasted totals are as low as they are? Seems like they’d be much higher.

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Rip76 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:29 am

From NWS

...BETA STARTING ITS WESTWARD TURN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS...

*** A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake
*** A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
*** A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by late Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight, and along the south Texas coast Sunday night.

At 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located about 305 miles (495 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin later today, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is forecast to occur, and Beta is expected to be at or near hurricane strength Sunday night or Monday.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
- Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
- Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
- Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA incl. Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft

Beta has the potential to produce a long-lived rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 4 p.m. CDT with an intermdiate advisory at 1 p.m.CDT - www.hurricanes.gov

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