September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:30 am

Scott747 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:28 am
davidiowx wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:20 am
Scott747 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:16 am
Shear is beginning to drop and storms are building around the coc. Recon found the center almost exactly were forecasted and it should begin turning soon.
Naked swirl right now but I agree, as the first vis images come in, looks like it’s ready to pop over the CoC. Going to be interesting days ahead

Yup. And this more northerly component is potentially bad news for the upper Texas coast depending on where it slows down and how stacked it is once beta nears the coast.
I’m not at all sold on this storm ejecting yet. It could hang around for even longer than currently forecasted.

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:32 am

davidiowx wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:23 am
Cpv17 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:18 am
davidiowx wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:10 am
The 06z GFS is nothing short of interesting.. :shock:
It still doesn’t really have much rain for most of SETX other than the coastal counties.
Which is odd considering the storms loops around Houston then goes NE a bit just to turn back around over Houston again.. but the last frame you can see trouble in approaching from the Yucatan.. yes yes, it’s way far out into October so it’s just for entertainment
Yeah that’s one of those CAG systems the GFS is notoriously known for.

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:39 am

I’m kinda thinking that the NHC cone needs to be adjusted slightly west based on all the models I’ve seen on Tropical Tidbits. It looks like they all have this going further inland.

SLM87TX
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by SLM87TX » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:51 am

I think the model doesn't seem to take into account the front creating training line. Where ever it setup. That's what caused trouble in the past. Ex.Brenham in 2016. Any thoughts mets?

weatherguy425
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by weatherguy425 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:03 am

Dry air is already encroaching on Beta’s circulation without an inner core developed. Of course, we can’t turn our back - but another inhibiting factor.

Stormlover2020
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Stormlover2020 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:09 am

Long next 3 days to see what will happen, when u have something in gulf watch out!!!

Kingwood36
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Kingwood36 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:09 am

weatherguy425 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:03 am
Dry air is already encroaching on Beta’s circulation without an inner core developed. Of course, we can’t turn our back - but another inhibiting factor.
Its not forecasted to be a hurricane till tomorrow..plenty of time for it to get its act together...but since you are a pro ill lean more towards you lol

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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by weatherguy425 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:11 am

Kingwood36 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:09 am
weatherguy425 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:03 am
Dry air is already encroaching on Beta’s circulation without an inner core developed. Of course, we can’t turn our back - but another inhibiting factor.
Its not forecasted to be a hurricane till tomorrow..plenty of time for it to get its act together...but since you are a pro ill lean more towards you lol
Of course that is true... and it will still strengthen some... but the dry air isn’t going to go away. We’ll have to see how it plays out, but we’re lucky we don’t have a perfect environment in the Gulf right now.

Cpv17
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:27 am

I guess the dry air is what could possibly keep most of the precipitation offshore and we could end up getting very little action? Who knows?

redneckweather
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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta

Post by redneckweather » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:45 am

100% agree on the dry air keeping Beta in check throughout its life span. That could also be a factor on the not so absurd rain totals inland as it skirts the coast.

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