September 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
davidiowx
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The 06z GFS is nothing short of interesting.. :shock:
Kingwood36
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So its not going to turn and head toward Texas now?
davidiowx
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:10 am So its not going to turn and head toward Texas now?
Where did you get that idea? The latest update from the NHC at 7am still has it turning west and hanging along the coast through Wednesday..
Kingwood36
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davidiowx wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:13 am
Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:10 am So its not going to turn and head toward Texas now?
Where did you get that idea? The latest update from the NHC at 7am still has it turning west and hanging along the coast through Wednesday..
I read something wrong my bad
Scott747
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Shear is beginning to drop and storms are building around the coc. Recon found the center almost exactly were forecasted and it should begin turning soon.
davidiowx
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:16 am
davidiowx wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:13 am
Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:10 am So its not going to turn and head toward Texas now?
Where did you get that idea? The latest update from the NHC at 7am still has it turning west and hanging along the coast through Wednesday..
I read something wrong my bad
No worries! :mrgreen:
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:10 am The 06z GFS is nothing short of interesting.. :shock:
It still doesn’t really have much rain for most of SETX other than the coastal counties.
davidiowx
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Scott747 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:16 am Shear is beginning to drop and storms are building around the coc. Recon found the center almost exactly were forecasted and it should begin turning soon.
Naked swirl right now but I agree, as the first vis images come in, looks like it’s ready to pop over the CoC. Going to be interesting days ahead
davidiowx
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:18 am
davidiowx wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:10 am The 06z GFS is nothing short of interesting.. :shock:
It still doesn’t really have much rain for most of SETX other than the coastal counties.
Which is odd considering the storms loops around Houston then goes NE a bit just to turn back around over Houston again.. but the last frame you can see trouble in approaching from the Yucatan.. yes yes, it’s way far out into October so it’s just for entertainment
Scott747
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davidiowx wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:20 am
Scott747 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:16 am Shear is beginning to drop and storms are building around the coc. Recon found the center almost exactly were forecasted and it should begin turning soon.
Naked swirl right now but I agree, as the first vis images come in, looks like it’s ready to pop over the CoC. Going to be interesting days ahead

Yup. And this more northerly component is potentially bad news for the upper Texas coast depending on where it slows down and how stacked it is once beta nears the coast.
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