September 2020:

[srainhoutx]

There is no doubt a big Canadian High Pressure cell will setup over the SE this weekend into at least mid next week. My forecast is suggesting the possibility of an early fall frost/freeze in the mountains Sunday and Monday mornings.

I am a bit concerned for multiple days of above normal tides and bouts of very heavy rain with possible training squalls is this storm meanders near the Coast for several days.

[don]

GFS has the storm make a 2nd landfall at Freeport/Galveston next Friday.

[Scott747]

Say what you will about the models but that's some really good agreement from the two biggies. Timing and placement is a bit off but way to close to not take some serious notice despite how they have been this year.

[srainhoutx]

The NHC will begin Advisories for TD 22 at 6 PM

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
developed a sufficiently well-defined circulation, with SFMR wind
data suggesting an intensity of about 30 kt. In addition, the
associated convection is organized enough for SAB and TAFB to
provide Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 30 kt. Based on
this information, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Twenty-Two.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 035/4. During the
next 48 h or so, the cyclone should be steered slowly
north-northeastward by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and
northern Mexico. After that time, the global models are in good
agreement that this trough will weaken and lift out to the
northeast, with a weak mid-level ridge building to the north of the
cyclone. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west at a
continued slow forward speed. Although the cyclone is relatively
close to land, the vast majority of the track guidance keeps the
system offshore for the next five days. The official forecast will
follow this scenario, with the forecast track being between the HCCA
corrected consensus and the other consensus models.

The large-scale models suggest that the cyclone will be in an
environment of light to moderate vertical wind shear for the next
several days. Some dry air entrainment may occur after 48 h.
The bulk of the intensity guidance keeps the system below hurricane
strength during the forecast period. The official intensity
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows the system
peaking as a tropical storm, but it lies a little above the
intensity consensus.

As mentioned above, the cyclone is likely to stay offshore during
the forecast period. Therefore, it is too early to tell which parts
of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico will get wind, storm surge, and
rain impacts from this system


Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm while
moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days.

2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests
throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system and future updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2300Z 21.9N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 22.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 23.8N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 24.8N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 25.4N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 26.1N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 26.1N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 25.6N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Beven

[Texaspirate11]

THINK it will ingest some of that dry air coming along with the cold front so that might inhibit his strength?

[Cpv17]

THINK it will ingest some of that dry air coming along with the cold front so that might inhibit his strength?

It could initially but by Monday or Tuesday it could start to strengthen more.

[Stormlover2020]

How do u post pics

[Cpv17]

How do u post pics

I just always go to the full editor and hit the image button and then just copy and paste the link into the middle of it.

[DoctorMu]

The rain jumped right over us. I HATE watering in September. I just put fungicide, herbicide, and insecticide down. My lawn is now a nuclear waste dump. Just hoping for one more month of nice, green grass without chinch bugs, weeds, and brown patch. It's only a matter of time, though.

The 90L models are definitely not Cone Worthy yet.

[Katdaddy]

To many unknowns at this point and it will be an interesting weekend and next week ahead.

[tireman4]

Agreed Katdaddy. Lots of variables in play.

[don]

New track from the 10pm advisory

[Scott747]

You can see how much impact that 18z GFS run had on the track when it aligned with the Euro.

That first track was based on 12z guidance.

Models to focus on this evening are the GFS, HWRF, Ukie and Euro operationals with a blend of the ensembles.

[djmike]

That cone is inching up the coast. The infamous rightward shifts. This is gonna be a doozy to watch in coming days. I love hurricane season but honestly Ive had enough this year. Cmon cooler weather!

[Stormlover2020]

Icon sends it to Florida lol

[Scott747]

0z GFS thru hr 108 (Tuesday) is weaker and a bit further s offshore of Brownsville.

[Scott747]

Hr 144 moving n as a small moderate TS nearing landfall at Matagorda Bay.

[Scott747]

Ukie was the last holdout s of the border and has joined the other models. Strong 2, weak 3 about 100 mi e of Baffin Bay. Hinting at being ejected ne.

[Stormlover2020]

Lol cmc run is the wildest model I’ve seen lol