September 2020:

[don]

12z EURO ensembles

[Rip76]

That should light up the forum.

[Cromagnum]

That should light up the forum.

Hopefully it lights up the radar around here. We need rain.

[Stormlover2020]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1718&fh=78

[Kingwood36]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1718&fh=78

983 mb around freeport looks like...eh...

[Texaspirate11]

The tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf is forecast to become
better organized and likely form into a depression or storm. With
the front off the coast, and a general lack of steering flow, it`ll
likely meander around the northwest Gulf well into the weekend. The
proximity of the front and the disturbance will create a tight
pressure gradient between the two...setting up a long fetch of
moderate to strong ne/ene winds off the upper Tx coast. Gale
warnings may be required offshore later this weekend.

This scenario appears that it may last well into the early-midweek
period of next week especially with any tropical system lingering
offshore. Large seas/surf, tides well above normal, and strong ene
winds will essentially pile water up along the upper coast and it`ll
basically become trapped until we can get out of this pattern - one
way or the other.

This set-up has the potential to become a significant
event...producing beach erosion, transportation issues (both
coastal/marine), impact street drainage, and cause possible
inundation of some beach/bay communities. Too early for location
specific impacts, but increasing concern period is from Sat night
onward as observed water levels possibly exceed 4.5-5.5 MLLW. Though
no two storms are ever exactly alike, nor am I implying that etc,
the general set-up sort of reminds me of TS Frances here in 1998.

In regards to the eventual evolution of the tropical system...I`ll
defer to the the experts at NHC. Attm, steering flow isn`t easily
resolved as it basically looks trapped for a period of time.
Anticipate a wide range & changing model solutions for the next
several days. 47

[AtascocitaWX]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1718&fh=78

983 mb around freeport looks like...eh...

So how good has the ICON Model been this Season?

[Stormlover2020]

No model has been good this season lol

[Scott747]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1718&fh=78

983 mb around freeport looks like...eh...

That's really nowhere near Freeport. Well offshore to the s and e of Corpus.

[Scott747]

And the 18z GFS has stopped showing the phantom low and now is beginning to align with some of the other models.

[Scott747]

Hr 96 is just offshore of Matamoros and Brownsville as a strong TS.

[Scott747]

Hr 114 has a strengthening hurricane between Brownsville and Baffin Bay.

[don]

Getting a little concerned about the heavy rain threat for southeast Texas even if the system stays to our south. Due to convergence along the stalled frontal boundary over the area. 18z GFS shows this. It also has landfall around Baffin Bay as a category 1.

[Scott747]

Moving slowly to the w towards Baffin Bay and Corpus as a strong 1, weak 2.

[Scott747]

Outside of the cutoff low there is strong agreement with the set-up from the Euro and GFS. Strong ridging across the se.

[Kingwood36]

Guess ole dr Jim will eat his words if this doesn't go off to the ne like he said it would

[Scott747]

GFS is beginning to show a significant flooding even across the lower Texas coast that begins to spread to the middle and upper Texas coast mid next week as the system gets trapped.

[Scott747]

Finally begins to slowly move next Friday as the H retrogrades to the e.

[Stormlover2020]

Reminds me of a Harvey type run

[Scott747]

Friday night slowly moving along the coast near Sargent/Surfside as a depression.