September 2020:
Mother Nature could do us some good this year after all else we been through. 3 months of actual fall weather after years without this season sure would be nice.
I'm all for it as long as they come through with storms instead of boring dry fronts.
The run today was the easiest in about a week. Those few degrees make a big difference. I could run in 78-79 degree weather all year long. 85-86 while swampy humid first thing in the morning...not so much.
The run today was the easiest in about a week. Those few degrees make a big difference. I could run in 78-79 degree weather all year long. 85-86 while swampy humid first thing in the morning...not so much.
Christ already. More storms formed within eyesight of my house, blew up and went right on past without a drop again. This is getting old. I can't water my yard enough to keep up and somehow have managed to get take all root rot to show up I. Thr midst of this.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The 12Z ECMWF suggested a 1041mb high pressure cell drops into Montana/Wyoming. The mean sea level pressure record for September is 1041mb set in 1995.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
It's still early and I'm holding out some hope. So far though, everything is to my north and west, and it's moving northwest. Everything that started to bubble-up to my south and east quickly fell apart (why...why, I ask??). Anyway, maybe through the course of the afternoon there will be more to come. It's a toasty 97F here so I haven't been tainted by an outflow boundary yet.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:26 pm Christ already. More storms formed within eyesight of my house, blew up and went right on past without a drop again. This is getting old. I can't water my yard enough to keep up and somehow have managed to get take all root rot to show up I. Thr midst of this.
As for the front and the latest model runs...wow....bring it!! It will feel great!! WxMan57 needs to build a bigger wall before December though!!
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4468
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 041758
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1258 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
In and out of IFR to VFR conditions for most of the TAF sites today.
In the clear is LBX and GLS with still a chance of VCTS at LBX but
mostly showers at GLS. The rest of the sites will have Thunderstorms
in and out of the flying areas through out the day. MVFR/IFR
conditions are associated with the TSTMs bring visibility as low as
1sm and ceilings to around 1,000ft. Most of the short term guidance
does suggest the convective activity to be diminished by around 00z
but some hint at a little longer. Being influence by the diurnal
pattern, I would think that 00z the convection will be urning into
some norther showers at worst. VFR conditions look to persist
through the rest of the night and then a similar pattern tomorrow.
35
&&
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday]...
The upper level low stuck over Texas between high pressures to the
west(over the Great Basin) and to the east (over the Southeast US)
will remain over east Texas through the short term period while
gradually getting weaker. This upper level low combined with PWATs
of around 2 to 2.25 inches and daytime heating will lead to the
chance of showers or thunderstorms through the day today. CAM
guidance keeps the activity fairly scattered across the entire
area through the mid afternoon, then has the activity congeal
across the northern third of the area by this evening. Activity
wanes through the late evening with the loss of daytime heating
and all shower activity should end by midnight. Then we repeat the
same shower activity on Saturday as PWATs remain around 2 inches.
However, there is one difference in the pattern on Saturday
compared to today relative to the upper level low. This low will
be weakening and retrograding a bit back to the west through the
day on Saturday with the upper level ridge to the east expanding
across the Gulf. This could lead to slightly less coverage of
storms along the coast on Saturday compared to today.
Nevertheless, still expecting a chance of thunderstorms for most
the area on Saturday.
Thanks to the upper level low bringing in increased cloud coverage
through the day, temperatures today and Saturday will be around
normal. Daytime highs will be in the low 90s today, and whatever you
get to today, add a degree or two for Saturday`s high temperature as
heights rise with the weakening upperlevel low/intruding high
from the east. Overnight lows will still be near record warmth
through the period as dew points remain high. Though Galveston
this morning may end the streak of all time record high minimum
temperatures its been seeing the past few days as a well placed
shower could briefly bring the temperature down a few degrees.
Heat indices will continue to climb into the triple digits today
and Saturday, but generally remain below heat advisory criteria.
Fowler
.MARINE...
High pressure to the north will bring light east to northeasterly
flow today through the weekend along with seas generally two to four
feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the
overnight to early morning periods through the weekend as well. The
high pressure to the north slides eastward late Sunday into Monday
bringing southeasterly flow back to the region which will continue
through midweek. Winds and seas may increase to near Caution flag
criteria by midweek ahead of an approaching boundary, however
confidence remains low on whether this boundary makes it to the
coast or not.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 90 74 92 72 / 40 60 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 76 94 77 95 76 / 20 30 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 93 82 / 10 20 30 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...35
FXUS64 KHGX 041758
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1258 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
In and out of IFR to VFR conditions for most of the TAF sites today.
In the clear is LBX and GLS with still a chance of VCTS at LBX but
mostly showers at GLS. The rest of the sites will have Thunderstorms
in and out of the flying areas through out the day. MVFR/IFR
conditions are associated with the TSTMs bring visibility as low as
1sm and ceilings to around 1,000ft. Most of the short term guidance
does suggest the convective activity to be diminished by around 00z
but some hint at a little longer. Being influence by the diurnal
pattern, I would think that 00z the convection will be urning into
some norther showers at worst. VFR conditions look to persist
through the rest of the night and then a similar pattern tomorrow.
35
&&
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday]...
The upper level low stuck over Texas between high pressures to the
west(over the Great Basin) and to the east (over the Southeast US)
will remain over east Texas through the short term period while
gradually getting weaker. This upper level low combined with PWATs
of around 2 to 2.25 inches and daytime heating will lead to the
chance of showers or thunderstorms through the day today. CAM
guidance keeps the activity fairly scattered across the entire
area through the mid afternoon, then has the activity congeal
across the northern third of the area by this evening. Activity
wanes through the late evening with the loss of daytime heating
and all shower activity should end by midnight. Then we repeat the
same shower activity on Saturday as PWATs remain around 2 inches.
However, there is one difference in the pattern on Saturday
compared to today relative to the upper level low. This low will
be weakening and retrograding a bit back to the west through the
day on Saturday with the upper level ridge to the east expanding
across the Gulf. This could lead to slightly less coverage of
storms along the coast on Saturday compared to today.
Nevertheless, still expecting a chance of thunderstorms for most
the area on Saturday.
Thanks to the upper level low bringing in increased cloud coverage
through the day, temperatures today and Saturday will be around
normal. Daytime highs will be in the low 90s today, and whatever you
get to today, add a degree or two for Saturday`s high temperature as
heights rise with the weakening upperlevel low/intruding high
from the east. Overnight lows will still be near record warmth
through the period as dew points remain high. Though Galveston
this morning may end the streak of all time record high minimum
temperatures its been seeing the past few days as a well placed
shower could briefly bring the temperature down a few degrees.
Heat indices will continue to climb into the triple digits today
and Saturday, but generally remain below heat advisory criteria.
Fowler
.MARINE...
High pressure to the north will bring light east to northeasterly
flow today through the weekend along with seas generally two to four
feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the
overnight to early morning periods through the weekend as well. The
high pressure to the north slides eastward late Sunday into Monday
bringing southeasterly flow back to the region which will continue
through midweek. Winds and seas may increase to near Caution flag
criteria by midweek ahead of an approaching boundary, however
confidence remains low on whether this boundary makes it to the
coast or not.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 90 74 92 72 / 40 60 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 76 94 77 95 76 / 20 30 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 93 82 / 10 20 30 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...35
Yeah there is absolutely nothing south of I10jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:13 pmIt's still early and I'm holding out some hope. So far though, everything is to my north and west, and it's moving northwest. Everything that started to bubble-up to my south and east quickly fell apart (why...why, I ask??). Anyway, maybe through the course of the afternoon there will be more to come. It's a toasty 97F here so I haven't been tainted by an outflow boundary yet.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:26 pm Christ already. More storms formed within eyesight of my house, blew up and went right on past without a drop again. This is getting old. I can't water my yard enough to keep up and somehow have managed to get take all root rot to show up I. Thr midst of this.
As for the front and the latest model runs...wow....bring it!! It will feel great!! WxMan57 needs to build a bigger wall before December though!!
ugly looking training line to our west
MRMS Radar https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... s_step=120
MRMS Radar https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... s_step=120
I got 1.15" out of a couple of cells that were back-building right over me! I'm pretty happy with that. A great way to kick off the meteorological fall season!
Considering we had 0.7 in of rain over 33 days (including pretty much nothing with Laura) before last night and blistering heat...let me be the conductor! All aboard!unome wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:16 pm ugly looking training line to our west
MRMS Radar https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... s_step=120
At last - 1.1 inches of rain in the last day or so. Can finally put a fork in watering season and prepare for Brown Patch season!
Well I got .20 a couple days ago and another .10 today. Better than nothing. At least that’ll settle the dust on the gravel road I live on.
So is the boundary marching southward (oriented parallel to Hwy 59) going to stir anything up, or is it going to stabilize the atmosphere? Sure would be nice to see anything down south.
Looks like I'm dragging the damn hose around again all day tomorrow.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4468
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 050931
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
431 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020
.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday]...
The pattern has not changed much from yesterday with the upper level
low continuing to sit over eastern Texas and PWATs near 2 to 2.25".
So expect another day of fairly wide coverage of showers and
thunderstorms developing in the late morning that continues
through the day with showers first ending along the coast by the
late afternoon and early evening and not until the late evening
across the north. The one potential limiting factor is that the
upper level low will be weakening today with mid level ridging
expanding from the east into the area. However, still think
showers and thunderstorms will develop pretty much area wide due
to ample moisture and daytime heating. But that will change for
Sunday. Thinking the loss of the upper level low and further
building of the ridge will limit the coverage more compared to
today. However, isolated to scattered storms will still be
possible on Sunday with the western portion having larger
coverage.
Temperatures today will be fairly similar to yesterday with highs
in the mid 90s (and maybe some isolated higher spots in the metro
areas). Gonna be another marginal day for a Heat Advisory along
the coast, but think overall it will stay below criteria. Now that
doesn`t mean it won`t be hot, so continue to practice heat safety
through this holiday weekend. Rising heights on Sunday will bring
temperatures up a few degrees compared to today.
Fowler
.Long Term [Sunday Night through Saturday]...
Any remaining precipitation from Sunday afternoon will end quickly
with the loss of heating. It will remain warm and humid with low
temperatures in the lower 70s well inland to the lower 80`s along
the coast. Labor Day is looking seasonal with weak high pressure
overhead. PW values peak near 2.00 inches by late afternoon with
some capping noted in the 85-70 mb layer. Convective temps are
around 90 over the NW and mid 90s south and coast. There is some
potential for some isolated shra/tsra late in the day so will carry
20 PoPs for now.
A strong short wave embedded in a SW upper flow will trigger showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday. PW values surge to 2.20 inches in the
afternoon with no capping evident in fcst soundings. 300 mb winds
show a nice split over the area at 18z and a hint of a speed max
moving across South Texas putting SE TX in a LFQ. Will go with
likely POPs for Tuesday. Clouds and precip should keep temperatures
cooler than what the area has been experiencing lately. There should
be a gap in precipitation Tuesday evening in the wake of the short
wave. However, late Tuesday night, PW values increase to around 2.00
inches and the flow aloft remains out of the SW. The GFS is more
aggressive than the ECMWF in bringing a series of upper level
disturbances across the area Tuesday night but the EC is faster with
the sfc cold front. Which ever mechanism prevails, it looks like SE
TX will see a chance of shra/tsra Tuesday night. Will carry slight
rain chances and these might need to bumped upward for the 06-12z
period.
A cold front will approach SE TX on Wednesday. Models have flip
flopped from yesterday with the GFS holding the front back until
Thursday night while the ECMWF,CMC and ICON all bring the front
through the coastal waters Wednesday aftn/evening. Although all the
models are more progressive with moving the deep upper trough over
the southern Rockies to the east, they differ with regard to timing
and this seems to affect how each model handles the sfc front. The
pressure rises in the Rockies are considerably higher than over the
mid south and pressure rises in the TX panhandle look much stronger
than South Texas so feel the front will come through the area and
will lean toward the EC/CMC/ICON consensus but maybe slow it just a
bit in deference to the GFS. Will again carry likely PoPs on
Wednesday as the surface front coupled with high PW air should
generate periods of shra/tsra. The front should enter the coastal
waters by Thursday morning but SE TX will still lie on the east side
of the upper level trough axis. Will continue to mention post
frontal precipitation into Thursday as weak isentropic upglide could
persist until the upper level trough axis shifts east by late in the
day. Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the front with
lows in the upper 50`s north to lower 70`s south Thu-Sat. High
temperatures for the end of the week look to be in the lower to
middle 80s Thursday warming to near 90 by Saturday. 43
&&
.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Gulf waters through
the early morning before activity moves inland with the sea breeze.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight into
Sunday morning. High pressure to the north will keep east to
northeasterly flow through the weekend. Onshore flow of 5 to 10
knots begins late Sunday into Monday morning, which will continue
through midweek along with generally 3 to 4 ft seas. Winds and seas
may increase Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches the
area. Confidence still remains on the low side on how strong this
front will be, or whether it gets to the coast at all. If the front
makes it off the coast, expect northwesterly flow to happen post-
front. Hopefully confidence increases in the coming days on this
system.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1133 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020/...
.AVIATION...
Precip has mostly dissipated inland and VFR conditions are
anticipated overnight, though with wet ground and light wind can`t
totally exclude some patchy fog and/or spotty MVFR cigs. Upper Tx
coast is situated on the extreme northern periphery of an easterly
wave making its way toward Mexico, so locations near the coast
may see a few shra/iso tstms later tonight.
Similar set-up seen earlier today can be expected Saturday.
Moisture rich air, remnant boundaries and daytime heating should
set the stage for development & expansion of shra/tstms once
convective temps in the 87-91 degree range are met in the early-
mid afternoon hours. Best areal coverage anticipated generally
north of an Edna-Liberty line. Outside of stronger cells, VFR
conditions should prevail. Activity should diminish shortly after
sunset with the loss of heating. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 93 73 94 / 60 30 30 0 20
Houston (IAH) 96 76 97 78 95 / 40 30 30 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 91 83 93 / 30 30 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 050931
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
431 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020
.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday]...
The pattern has not changed much from yesterday with the upper level
low continuing to sit over eastern Texas and PWATs near 2 to 2.25".
So expect another day of fairly wide coverage of showers and
thunderstorms developing in the late morning that continues
through the day with showers first ending along the coast by the
late afternoon and early evening and not until the late evening
across the north. The one potential limiting factor is that the
upper level low will be weakening today with mid level ridging
expanding from the east into the area. However, still think
showers and thunderstorms will develop pretty much area wide due
to ample moisture and daytime heating. But that will change for
Sunday. Thinking the loss of the upper level low and further
building of the ridge will limit the coverage more compared to
today. However, isolated to scattered storms will still be
possible on Sunday with the western portion having larger
coverage.
Temperatures today will be fairly similar to yesterday with highs
in the mid 90s (and maybe some isolated higher spots in the metro
areas). Gonna be another marginal day for a Heat Advisory along
the coast, but think overall it will stay below criteria. Now that
doesn`t mean it won`t be hot, so continue to practice heat safety
through this holiday weekend. Rising heights on Sunday will bring
temperatures up a few degrees compared to today.
Fowler
.Long Term [Sunday Night through Saturday]...
Any remaining precipitation from Sunday afternoon will end quickly
with the loss of heating. It will remain warm and humid with low
temperatures in the lower 70s well inland to the lower 80`s along
the coast. Labor Day is looking seasonal with weak high pressure
overhead. PW values peak near 2.00 inches by late afternoon with
some capping noted in the 85-70 mb layer. Convective temps are
around 90 over the NW and mid 90s south and coast. There is some
potential for some isolated shra/tsra late in the day so will carry
20 PoPs for now.
A strong short wave embedded in a SW upper flow will trigger showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday. PW values surge to 2.20 inches in the
afternoon with no capping evident in fcst soundings. 300 mb winds
show a nice split over the area at 18z and a hint of a speed max
moving across South Texas putting SE TX in a LFQ. Will go with
likely POPs for Tuesday. Clouds and precip should keep temperatures
cooler than what the area has been experiencing lately. There should
be a gap in precipitation Tuesday evening in the wake of the short
wave. However, late Tuesday night, PW values increase to around 2.00
inches and the flow aloft remains out of the SW. The GFS is more
aggressive than the ECMWF in bringing a series of upper level
disturbances across the area Tuesday night but the EC is faster with
the sfc cold front. Which ever mechanism prevails, it looks like SE
TX will see a chance of shra/tsra Tuesday night. Will carry slight
rain chances and these might need to bumped upward for the 06-12z
period.
A cold front will approach SE TX on Wednesday. Models have flip
flopped from yesterday with the GFS holding the front back until
Thursday night while the ECMWF,CMC and ICON all bring the front
through the coastal waters Wednesday aftn/evening. Although all the
models are more progressive with moving the deep upper trough over
the southern Rockies to the east, they differ with regard to timing
and this seems to affect how each model handles the sfc front. The
pressure rises in the Rockies are considerably higher than over the
mid south and pressure rises in the TX panhandle look much stronger
than South Texas so feel the front will come through the area and
will lean toward the EC/CMC/ICON consensus but maybe slow it just a
bit in deference to the GFS. Will again carry likely PoPs on
Wednesday as the surface front coupled with high PW air should
generate periods of shra/tsra. The front should enter the coastal
waters by Thursday morning but SE TX will still lie on the east side
of the upper level trough axis. Will continue to mention post
frontal precipitation into Thursday as weak isentropic upglide could
persist until the upper level trough axis shifts east by late in the
day. Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the front with
lows in the upper 50`s north to lower 70`s south Thu-Sat. High
temperatures for the end of the week look to be in the lower to
middle 80s Thursday warming to near 90 by Saturday. 43
&&
.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Gulf waters through
the early morning before activity moves inland with the sea breeze.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight into
Sunday morning. High pressure to the north will keep east to
northeasterly flow through the weekend. Onshore flow of 5 to 10
knots begins late Sunday into Monday morning, which will continue
through midweek along with generally 3 to 4 ft seas. Winds and seas
may increase Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches the
area. Confidence still remains on the low side on how strong this
front will be, or whether it gets to the coast at all. If the front
makes it off the coast, expect northwesterly flow to happen post-
front. Hopefully confidence increases in the coming days on this
system.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1133 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020/...
.AVIATION...
Precip has mostly dissipated inland and VFR conditions are
anticipated overnight, though with wet ground and light wind can`t
totally exclude some patchy fog and/or spotty MVFR cigs. Upper Tx
coast is situated on the extreme northern periphery of an easterly
wave making its way toward Mexico, so locations near the coast
may see a few shra/iso tstms later tonight.
Similar set-up seen earlier today can be expected Saturday.
Moisture rich air, remnant boundaries and daytime heating should
set the stage for development & expansion of shra/tstms once
convective temps in the 87-91 degree range are met in the early-
mid afternoon hours. Best areal coverage anticipated generally
north of an Edna-Liberty line. Outside of stronger cells, VFR
conditions should prevail. Activity should diminish shortly after
sunset with the loss of heating. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 93 73 94 / 60 30 30 0 20
Houston (IAH) 96 76 97 78 95 / 40 30 30 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 91 83 93 / 30 30 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4468
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 051156
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
656 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with generally
easterly flow. Today will be another day of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with them first impacting LBX and GLS during the
morning, HOU/SGR/IAH/CXO this afternoon, and then continuing for
CLL and UTS into the evening. Occasional MVFR CIGs or visibilities
are possible if a thunderstorm tracks directly over a terminal.
Activity will settle down rather quickly after sunset, but
redevelop for Sunday. However, coverage will be less on Sunday
than today.
Fowler
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 051156
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
656 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with generally
easterly flow. Today will be another day of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with them first impacting LBX and GLS during the
morning, HOU/SGR/IAH/CXO this afternoon, and then continuing for
CLL and UTS into the evening. Occasional MVFR CIGs or visibilities
are possible if a thunderstorm tracks directly over a terminal.
Activity will settle down rather quickly after sunset, but
redevelop for Sunday. However, coverage will be less on Sunday
than today.
Fowler
&&
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4468
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 051756
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Mostly VFR conditions with some chances of afternoon thunderstorms
still. A few isolated showers remain in the SGR/LBX areas. This
afternoon, convective temps stay right around max temps so the
looking at a little later start for the convection to start. Mainly
the western forecast area will see the majority of storms but ruling
out the rest of the TAF sites such as IAH and HOU was a bit
premature. After sunset, VFR conditions prevail and tomorrow will be
similar to today but with less activity. 35
&&
.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday]...
The pattern has not changed much from yesterday with the upper level
low continuing to sit over eastern Texas and PWATs near 2 to 2.25".
So expect another day of fairly wide coverage of showers and
thunderstorms developing in the late morning that continues
through the day with showers first ending along the coast by the
late afternoon and early evening and not until the late evening
across the north. The one potential limiting factor is that the
upper level low will be weakening today with mid level ridging
expanding from the east into the area. However, still think
showers and thunderstorms will develop pretty much area wide due
to ample moisture and daytime heating. But that will change for
Sunday. Thinking the loss of the upper level low and further
building of the ridge will limit the coverage more compared to
today. However, isolated to scattered storms will still be
possible on Sunday with the western portion having larger
coverage.
Temperatures today will be fairly similar to yesterday with highs
in the mid 90s (and maybe some isolated higher spots in the metro
areas). Gonna be another marginal day for a Heat Advisory along
the coast, but think overall it will stay below criteria. Now that
doesn`t mean it won`t be hot, so continue to practice heat safety
through this holiday weekend. Rising heights on Sunday will bring
temperatures up a few degrees compared to today.
Fowler
.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Gulf waters through
the early morning before activity moves inland with the sea breeze.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight into
Sunday morning. High pressure to the north will keep east to
northeasterly flow through the weekend. Onshore flow of 5 to 10
knots begins late Sunday into Monday morning, which will continue
through midweek along with generally 3 to 4 ft seas. Winds and seas
may increase Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches the
area. Confidence still remains on the low side on how strong this
front will be, or whether it gets to the coast at all. If the front
makes it off the coast, expect northwesterly flow to happen post-
front. Hopefully confidence increases in the coming days on this
system.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 92 73 93 73 / 20 30 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 76 94 76 95 77 / 20 20 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 92 82 / 20 20 0 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...35
FXUS64 KHGX 051756
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2020
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Mostly VFR conditions with some chances of afternoon thunderstorms
still. A few isolated showers remain in the SGR/LBX areas. This
afternoon, convective temps stay right around max temps so the
looking at a little later start for the convection to start. Mainly
the western forecast area will see the majority of storms but ruling
out the rest of the TAF sites such as IAH and HOU was a bit
premature. After sunset, VFR conditions prevail and tomorrow will be
similar to today but with less activity. 35
&&
.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday]...
The pattern has not changed much from yesterday with the upper level
low continuing to sit over eastern Texas and PWATs near 2 to 2.25".
So expect another day of fairly wide coverage of showers and
thunderstorms developing in the late morning that continues
through the day with showers first ending along the coast by the
late afternoon and early evening and not until the late evening
across the north. The one potential limiting factor is that the
upper level low will be weakening today with mid level ridging
expanding from the east into the area. However, still think
showers and thunderstorms will develop pretty much area wide due
to ample moisture and daytime heating. But that will change for
Sunday. Thinking the loss of the upper level low and further
building of the ridge will limit the coverage more compared to
today. However, isolated to scattered storms will still be
possible on Sunday with the western portion having larger
coverage.
Temperatures today will be fairly similar to yesterday with highs
in the mid 90s (and maybe some isolated higher spots in the metro
areas). Gonna be another marginal day for a Heat Advisory along
the coast, but think overall it will stay below criteria. Now that
doesn`t mean it won`t be hot, so continue to practice heat safety
through this holiday weekend. Rising heights on Sunday will bring
temperatures up a few degrees compared to today.
Fowler
.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Gulf waters through
the early morning before activity moves inland with the sea breeze.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight into
Sunday morning. High pressure to the north will keep east to
northeasterly flow through the weekend. Onshore flow of 5 to 10
knots begins late Sunday into Monday morning, which will continue
through midweek along with generally 3 to 4 ft seas. Winds and seas
may increase Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches the
area. Confidence still remains on the low side on how strong this
front will be, or whether it gets to the coast at all. If the front
makes it off the coast, expect northwesterly flow to happen post-
front. Hopefully confidence increases in the coming days on this
system.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 92 73 93 73 / 20 30 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 76 94 76 95 77 / 20 20 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 92 82 / 20 20 0 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...35
And everything is off to the north again...