September 2020:

[Cromagnum]

Good. Blow this blast furnace back out to the gulf. It was awful yesterday and feels the same today.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Nana forms in the Central Caribbean Sea. No threat to Texas at this time.

[DoctorMu]

Good. Blow this blast furnace back out to the gulf. It was awful yesterday and feels the same today.

Heat Index of 114°F. Total misery out there. I haven't gone for a walk/run with the dog for days.

[DoctorMu]

That's an impressive trough and cool down in the medium/long range for Texas. Fingers crossed it's real!!

Absolutely beautiful map. A tingle ran down my leg!

Welcome FALL 2020!

I'd like to have a real Fall for a change! Dewpoints of 70°F in November the past few years are getting really old.

[DoctorMu]

Did I mention our record high low of 83°F? With a dewpoint of 80°F. That's a heat index of 95°F at 4 am! In September.

The cold front can't come too soon!

[Cpv17]

I just want rain. I don’t care for the cold front but if it means I can get some rain then I’m all for it.

[DoctorMu]

I just want rain. I don’t care for the cold front but if it means I can get some rain then I’m all for it.

The forecast and radar have changed remarkably up here. From Dry season to Mitigating Brownpatch season?? Am I dreaming?

A nice outflow possibly not going to go Lucy and the football





Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1201 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020


.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings will continue to develop tonight,
impacting most of the terminals. The main aviation concern is the
potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms later tonight
into Wednesday morning. An outflow boundary currently over north
Texas will continue to move south-southeast overnight. This
activity could move over KCLL and KUTS after 08Z Wednesday. A few
strong thunderstorms will be possible with damaging winds as the
main risk. The boundary could weaken before reaching I-10;
therefore, did not include VCSH/VCTS for the Houston metro area
and coastal terminals. Shower/storm chances are again possible in
the afternoon; however, this activity will depend on tonight`s
convection. 05

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020/

SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
This first day of fall sure still felt a lot like summer. Heat
indices climbed to 105 to 110 across the area this afternoon, though
slightly lower dew points, partly cloudy skies, and breezy winds may
have made today feel a bit better compared to the past few days. So,
Galveston only got to a heat index of 114 instead of the 117 it got
to yesterday (though we gotta take the wins where we can). Heat
indices tomorrow may again drop a degree or two, so will wait for
the mid shift to make the determination on whether another Heat
Advisory will be needed.

In non-temperature related news, there is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow across the northern third of the
area as an upper level low moves across northern Texas. An
associated weak boundary will attempt to move down into Houston
County and the northern Brazos Valley late tonight bringing with it
a chance of strong thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds. Most of
the guidance yesterday kept the precipitation north of the area, but
today it has been trending slightly further south with this line.
So, have increased PoPs tonight into tomorrow morning in these
northern areas. The chance of showers or thunderstorms continue
through the day tomorrow and into tomorrow night across these
northern zones.

Fowler

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
At the beginning of the period, ne-sw oriented mid level trof
roughly extending from Missouri to south central Texas will be in
place along with an axis of 2.0-2.2" PW`s pooling across northern
parts of the area. Though the trof gradually weakens/fills, a
general weakness will remain in place aloft going into the
weekend. Combination of large scale lift, daytime heating and
disturbances embedded in the upper flow should provide chances of
shra/tstms across the region. Nudged POPs upward into Saturday
and also pulled them further south toward the coast. Confidence
in the overall details (timing, location, etc) is fairly low and
still suspect things become mesoscale/boundary driven at times.

Northern periphery of an easterly wave associated with the
remnant outskirts of Nana should track toward the southern coast
of Mexico. Other than maybe iso/sct shra offshore, not expecting
impacts locally. May see another wave move into the southern Gulf
early next week, but with an amplifying western ridge and digging
trof to the east...suspect this might just provide a bit of
leading moisture for an advancing cold front (still penciled in
for middle of next week) to work with. 47

MARINE...
Moderate to strong southerly winds and elevated seas will persist
into midweek. Will extend SCA`s across all waters tonight...which
the midnight crew will likely need to push into the day Wed for
some parts. Look for gradually improving conditions Thursday and
Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds will become more
easterly this weekend as the northern periphery of a tropical wave
moves toward the east coast of Mexico. 47

CLIMATE [Updated]...
We are on record watch once again. Galveston this morning only
got down to a low of 87 degrees, which ties the all time record
low min of 87 last set yesterday. Not to be outdone, both the City
of Houston and Houston-Hobby only got down to 84 degrees this
morning. This could break the all time record high min of 83
degrees for both of these sites, which both reached just
yesterday.

In case your internal calendar missed it cause of all this heat, but
it is now September and the start of climatological fall!

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 97 77 93 73 / 60 40 40 40 60
Houston (IAH) 81 98 79 95 78 / 10 10 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 85 92 83 91 83 / 10 0 10 10 20

&&

[jasons2k]

I have a 20% chance of rain, “mainly before noon, then mostly sunny” but I’m closely watching the radar.

[SLM87TX]

Some cells starting to form sw of se TX, maybe a signs of thing to come.

[srainhoutx]

Morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Monitoring an incoming outflow boundary from the northwest this morning. Boundary is currently extending from west of Huntsville to near Navasota to Smithville and moving southward at 10-15mph. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along and behind this boundary.

Forecast models generally show this activity weakening with time this morning as the boundary sinks southward toward a line from Lake Livingston to Waller to Columbus. However with good heating and decent onshore flow, convection allowing models show the formation of new development near/along this boundary later this afternoon that lingers into the evening hours. Generally think most of this activity will stay NW of the US 59 corridor today.

Bigger questions come into play tonight as yet another cluster of thunderstorms may develop over central and north central TX and move toward SE TX early Thursday morning. Some forecast models bring a broken line of storms into SE TX with this feature, but once again it is hard to say just how far south and east the activity will move. Better chances look in store for the area on Friday as the shear axis and upper trough move closer to the local area and bring some of the central TX activity into SE TX. As suspected, the frontal push is very weak and this incoming front looks to wash out over the area over the weekend with continued daily chances for showers and thunderstorms both from the weakening boundary and the seabreeze front.

Long range:
Already much talked about, potentially stronger front, for the middle of next week is on the table, but I have my doubts it will be anything close to what the models, especially the GFS is currently showing. While the teleconnection pattern supports strong downstream amplification due to western Pacific typhoon activity, it is still early September and while a front could certainly move through the region, lows falling into the mid 50’s would be very rare. For now will watch and see if the current consistency in the GFS is held or if that model begins to trend toward the warmer ECMWF and CMC solutions that feature a stronger and more blocked SE US ridge.

[DoctorMu]

We've been mostly Charlie Browned...but at least it's cloudy and cooler (that's relative).

[mcheer23]

Long range:
Already much talked about, potentially stronger front, for the middle of next week is on the table, but I have my doubts it will be anything close to what the models, especially the GFS is currently showing. While the teleconnection pattern supports strong downstream amplification due to western Pacific typhoon activity, it is still early September and while a front could certainly move through the region, lows falling into the mid 50’s would be very rare. For now will watch and see if the current consistency in the GFS is held or if that model begins to trend toward the warmer ECMWF and CMC solutions that feature a stronger and more blocked SE US ridge. [/i]

CMC now has low temps in the 50's like the GFS does...

[TxLady]

And....the beautiful sound of rain! It has been teasingly cloudy and cooler, all morning. Finally, the rain moved in.

[Texaspirate11]

I love Luch's forecasts - he's hysterical HGX:

So...when do we see change? That depends on who you ask. We have
definitely started to hear the buzz about a big early fall cold
front, and it`s true that some of the guidance suggests this. But
this is no slam dunk, and we`re going to have to do a lot of data
evaluation in the coming days to discern how this plays out. So,
for now, keep an eye on the middle of next week for more of a
taste of fall, but...maybe don`t start pulling sweaters and
jackets out of storage just yet.

Then he says "In short where there is sun, it's STUPID HOT>"
love it

[Cromagnum]

I'm going to be sad if this thing posts up in Brenham and doesn't come on through.

[snowman65]

2020 says I don't think so with that front...

[Kingwood36]

So is the cool front we were expecting decided not to grace us with its presence?

[redneckweather]

GFS has actually trended colder with next weeks front. Someone will be in here shortly to post up some maps. Gonna need a light jacket if GFS holds!

[JDsGN]

GFS has actually trended colder with next weeks front. Someone will be in here shortly to post up some maps. Gonna need a light jacket if GFS holds!

Man I want to believe so badly but I just can't do it.

[djmike]

Im back!!! Just got power back in Beaumont. This has been a brutal 7 days with Laura and no power and this heat. Evacuated Tuesday last week and home now. Little damage to home but nothing that cant be fixed. Biggest issue around PA and Beaumont is power and trees/limbs down and damage by falling trees and wires. Evacuated 4 people and 14 dogs into a hotel in Baton Rouge. Coming home, LaFayette westward is just complete devastation. Damage stops out west of Beaumont. Anyway. Were back. Alive. Safe. Exhausted. Now for some sense of normalcy. ...now, wheres that cold front again? Lol