August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2281
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by Katdaddy » Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:51 pm

Hoping one of the these tropical cumulus clouds give me yard a shower

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2948
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by tireman4 » Sat Aug 29, 2020 2:20 pm

At 73 degrees, with a 97 degree temperature, that dewpoint is brutal at IAH

00
FXUS64 KHGX 291737
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest radar imagery showing the development of scattered
SHRA/TSRA along the coast, with high-resolution forecast guidance
indicating that this activity should expand further inland over
the next couple of hours. Scattered storms may approach coastal
and Houston metro terminals through approximately 00Z, though
conditions should remain within VFR thresholds aside from any
brief visibility reductions from these storms. Look for
S-SW winds of around 10 knots to continue through the afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. Could once again see a
drop to MVFR to IFR cigs late this evening into the early parts of
next morning, mainly at locations north of I-10. Another round of
scattered convection driven by increasing low-level moisture
should develop along the coast tomorrow morning and push inland
during the day.

Cady

&&

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2948
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by tireman4 » Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:31 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 292042
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms showing up on radar this
afternoon, although coverage thus far has remained minimal.
Despite this, sufficient instability (3000+ J/kg SBCAPE) and
ample low-level moisture should prove favorable for the formation
of some additional storms over the next couple of hours before
activity diminishes upon the loss of daytime heating. Development
should be limited to airmass thunderstorms given the lack of
effective wind shear.

Hot and humid conditions otherwise remain the main weather story
through the remainder of the weekend. Look for similar conditions
on Sunday to what has been observed thus far today, with onshore
flow continuing to provide a steady supply of Gulf moisture to the
area. This should keep heat index values in the hazardous range,
potentially reaching as high as the low 110s as we`ve seen over
the past couple of days. This may require another Heat Advisory
tomorrow, although that decision will come with the overnight
forecast package. Global models continue to indicate a stronger
surge of moisture beginning tomorrow, with both the NAM & GFS
solutions indicating a rise in PW values above 2.0 in across the
southern half of the CWA with the greatest moisture availability
around Galveston Bay. Have maintained PoPs in the 30-40% range
with the highest numbers remaining in the southeastern portion of
the area. Development is likely to mirror the activity of the past
few days, with showers and storms developing offshore in the
morning and pushing inland throughout the day.

For those looking to enjoy some time on the beach this weekend,
the risk for strong rip currents will continue given the
persistent onshore flow. If you do enter the water, remember to
only do so near a trained lifeguard and know the steps to take
should you become caught in a rip current.

Cady

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

Expect shortwave to travel south across the Rockies and carve out a
trof across central parts of the country by midweek. Model solutions
vary somewhat on its evolution beyond then...whether a part of the
trof separates and travels under the western ridge, and/or weakens
and travels north and east of the ridge stretching from the Atlantic
across the northern Gulf Coast. Probably won`t impact wx all that
much locally regardless considering lack of support for a continued
southward push into the area with its associated frontal boundary.
Better rain chances look to be to our north closer to the weakening
front. Otherwise, typical late Aug wx anticipated across the area
with iso/sct diurnally driven precip this week. 47

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest radar imagery showing the development of scattered
SHRA/TSRA along the coast, with high-resolution forecast guidance
indicating that this activity should expand further inland over
the next couple of hours. Scattered storms may approach coastal
and Houston metro terminals through approximately 00Z, though
conditions should remain within VFR thresholds aside from any
brief visibility reductions from these storms. Look for
S-SW winds of around 10 knots to continue through the afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. Could once again see a
drop to MVFR to IFR cigs late this evening into the early parts of
next morning, mainly at locations north of I-10. Another round of
scattered convection driven by increasing low-level moisture
should develop along the coast tomorrow morning and push inland
during the day.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...

Look for a tightening pressure gradient has we head into the early-
mid parts of next week. Expect southerly winds to increase and
building seas as this occurs. May need some caution flags at times.
Speeds should be highest at night in the Gulf and during the day in
the bays. Winds/seas should then be on a downward trend during the
second half of the work week as a weak front sags into Texas and
becomes diffuse. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 78 100 79 98 80 / 0 10 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 79 97 81 95 81 / 10 30 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 93 85 92 84 / 30 40 20 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...47
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...47

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 2387
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Aug 29, 2020 8:54 pm

Yep - another 110°F heat index day around here.

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2948
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by tireman4 » Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:37 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 292338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Some evening showers and thunderstorms in the area but not in the
TAF sites. Most are in a broken line from the Hunters Creek area to
the southwest around El Campo and continuing to move northeasterly
and dissipate as the sunsets. After that, VFR conditions prevail
until the early morning hours with some MVFR ceilings through mid
morning. By 15z the lower stratus will scatter out with the heating
and some fair weather cu will prevail through the day. Afternoon and
evening showers and coastal thunderstorms are possible tomorrow as
well. Most will be short lived and move out by sunset. 35

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms showing up on radar this
afternoon, although coverage thus far has remained minimal.
Despite this, sufficient instability (3000+ J/kg SBCAPE) and
ample low-level moisture should prove favorable for the formation
of some additional storms over the next couple of hours before
activity diminishes upon the loss of daytime heating. Development
should be limited to airmass thunderstorms given the lack of
effective wind shear.

Hot and humid conditions otherwise remain the main weather story
through the remainder of the weekend. Look for similar conditions
on Sunday to what has been observed thus far today, with onshore
flow continuing to provide a steady supply of Gulf moisture to the
area. This should keep heat index values in the hazardous range,
potentially reaching as high as the low 110s as we`ve seen over
the past couple of days. This may require another Heat Advisory
tomorrow, although that decision will come with the overnight
forecast package. Global models continue to indicate a stronger
surge of moisture beginning tomorrow, with both the NAM & GFS
solutions indicating a rise in PW values above 2.0 in across the
southern half of the CWA with the greatest moisture availability
around Galveston Bay. Have maintained PoPs in the 30-40% range
with the highest numbers remaining in the southeastern portion of
the area. Development is likely to mirror the activity of the past
few days, with showers and storms developing offshore in the
morning and pushing inland throughout the day.

For those looking to enjoy some time on the beach this weekend,
the risk for strong rip currents will continue given the
persistent onshore flow. If you do enter the water, remember to
only do so near a trained lifeguard and know the steps to take
should you become caught in a rip current.

Cady


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

Expect shortwave to travel south across the Rockies and carve out a
trof across central parts of the country by midweek. Model solutions
vary somewhat on its evolution beyond then...whether a part of the
trof separates and travels under the western ridge, and/or weakens
and travels north and east of the ridge stretching from the Atlantic
across the northern Gulf Coast. Probably won`t impact wx all that
much locally regardless considering lack of support for a continued
southward push into the area with its associated frontal boundary.
Better rain chances look to be to our north closer to the weakening
front. Otherwise, typical late Aug wx anticipated across the area
with iso/sct diurnally driven precip this week. 47


.MARINE...

Look for a tightening pressure gradient has we head into the early-
mid parts of next week. Expect southerly winds to increase and
building seas as this occurs. May need some caution flags at times.
Speeds should be highest at night in the Gulf and during the day in
the bays. Winds/seas should then be on a downward trend during the
second half of the work week as a weak front sags into Texas and
becomes diffuse. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 78 100 79 98 80 / 0 10 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 79 97 81 95 81 / 10 30 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 93 85 92 84 / 30 40 20 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM...47
AVIATION...35
MARINE...47

Pas_Bon
Posts: 73
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:58 am
Location: Kemah, TX
Contact:

Re: August 2020:

Post by Pas_Bon » Sun Aug 30, 2020 8:41 am

Am I seeing things? Am I really seeing forecast highs in the 80’s over the next 10 days ? :)

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2948
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: August 2020:

Post by tireman4 » Sun Aug 30, 2020 9:26 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 301050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Monday Afternoon]...

An upper level trough will remain over the LA region this morning
and gradually shift east during the day. Surface analysis shows
that the higher moisture surge that was expected for today does
not make it into the local area until late tonight and Monday.
Some moisture does move into the local waters this morning from
the Gulf, but it is expected to only expand subtly into the
southern and central portions of SE Texas this afternoon and
evening. With the presence of upper level trough aloft, we will
likely see activity starting up along the waters and coastal
regions this morning. Once the seabreeze develops, we can expect
showers and thunderstorms to build further inland during the late
morning and afternoon hours. This activity will dissipate during
the evening and early night hours. The stronger surge of moisture
is expected to be across the southern half of the CWA by early
Monday morning and across most of local area by mid morning.
Models show PWs of around 1.8 to 2.2 inches across SE Texas by
around 10 AM CDT and with an unstable air mass in place, it will
not take much for showers to develop across portions of local area
Monday morning and Monday afternoon.

HEAT [TODAY]:

High temperatures today will likely reach the mid 90s to low 100s
this afternoon. Portions of SE Texas will be able to obtain heat
indicies in the 108-114 degrees F range once again today. A Heat
Advisory has been issued and will be in effect from 10 AM CDT to 8
PM CDT today. It is HIGHLY recommended to practice Heat Safety if
you plan to spend time in the outdoors and/or in areas with poor
ventilation. Dont forget your pets! Surface temperatures could be
well above these temperatures on their tender paws.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...[Monday Night through Saturday]
The surge of deeper tropical moisture (though not as rich as
previously indicated by model runs 2-4 days ago) should be over the
northern counties and Monday night as a shot of drier air and
arrives from the southwest on the increasing LLJ. Storms should be
waning in the evening. Expecting seasonal temperatures Tuesday for
the first day of September and mostly rainfree. While Wednesday will
be something of a transition day with an upper trough moving through
OK/NTX with a trailing cold front sagging southeast through the
state and potentially getting close to the CWA. The GFS/ECMWF have
very different takes on how this plays out. GFS get the frontal
boundary near SETX and convection takes over and pushes southward
with storms Thursday over the area eventually the upper trough dips
all the way down near CRP and the boundary remains active Friday and
the front surges into the coastal areas by late Saturday with more
storms. The ECMWF on the other hand stalls the front much further
northwest and instead of swinging the upper trough through it starts
to cutoff and dip southwest with enough ridging over SETX to remain
mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Sadly both are consistent with their
prior runs so not much help there. At this point will favor the
ECMWF as the GFS seems too energetic and fast with the upper
trough...it is still late summer. So will go with warmer and drier
conditions in the Wed-Fri period and carry some low chances for
rainfall.

45

&&

.TROPICS...
As for the tropics the much advertised CPC heating up of the
tropical season has certainly occurred and the latest advisory is
pinging on 3 systems with middling chances for development through 5
days. The system moving off of Africa in a few days looks to have
good chances for development as well with the ECMWF ensemble and
deterministic pinging it hard. For now the systems moving through
the MDR look to be stuck in a pattern of fairly fast moving
westerly movements trapped under large Atlantic ridge.

45

&&

.CLIMATE...

Galveston bottomed out yesterday at 86 which now ties the record for
the warmest record high minimum in August. This is now the latest in
the year to occur. Interestingly the 86 degree readings have only
taken place since 2019...August for that matter now has just 8 days
with recent record high mins that still stand prior 2000 the
remaining 23 days record high minimum temperatures are held by years
from 2000 to the present.

45

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

The northern sites will have periods of MVFR conditions through
around 15Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions expected for all sites.
S winds will be at 5-10 KTS today..up to 15 KTS along the coastal
sites. Iso-Sct SH/TS are expected to develop today along the
seabreeze boundaries and could occasionally affect sites IAH and
southward. Activity will dissipate in the evening. Winds will
decrease to around 5 KTS tonight.

24

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow is expected to continue today. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop this morning over the
coastal waters, as moisture moves into the local waters from the
Gulf. Winds will strengthen early next week into mid week as the
pressure gradient tightens. In response, seas will build to
around 4-6 FT. Caution Flags will likely be needed at times. Winds
relax and seas decrease during the second half of the work week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 102 79 99 80 99 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 99 81 97 81 96 / 40 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 94 85 93 84 91 / 40 20 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...
Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...
Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...
Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Cromagnum
Posts: 1064
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Re: August 2020:

Post by Cromagnum » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:16 pm

These little popcorn showers are everywhere buy my area. Would welcome anything after dragging the hose over my yard for 10 hours yesterday

BlueJay
Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

Re: August 2020:

Post by BlueJay » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:34 pm

It is oven-y outside.

User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1044
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Re: August 2020:

Post by djmike » Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:37 am

Im back!!! Just got power back in Beaumont. This has been a brutal 7 days with Laura and no power and this heat. Evacuated Tuesday last week and home now. Little damage to home but nothing that cant be fixed. Biggest issue around PA and Beaumont is power and trees/limbs down and damage by falling trees and wires. Evacuated 4 people and 14 dogs into a hotel in Baton Rouge. Coming home, LaFayette westward is just complete devastation. Damage stops out west of Beaumont. Anyway. Were back. Alive. Safe. Exhausted. Now for some sense of normalcy. ...now, wheres that cold front again? Lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

Post Reply