August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:00 pm

davidiowx wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:05 pm
^^ I hope it works!

Our daughter was born yesterday at 10:40am and all back home. Thankful as all get out Laura spared us here in Houston! Prayers to all affected. That first cool front can’t get here fast enough!
Congratulations. That’s awesome!

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Ptarmigan
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by Ptarmigan » Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:58 pm

tireman4 wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:01 am
The Houston/Galveston Metro Area dodge a bullet. I want to personally thank all on this board who have and continue to contribute. For the pro and amateur mets, a hearty thank you. This is the third inning of a nine inning game ( or 20 inning like Jason stated). We are on the letter M and the peak month is September, the heart of the Cape Verde season. Be aware. Be vigilant. You have your kits ready. You have your plan worked out.Think of this as a Hurricane Preparedness drill. Our heart and prayers go out to the folks in SWLA and Lake Charles.
Indeed. A major hurricane landfall is no picnic. It is made worse with the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Rip76
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by Rip76 » Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:43 pm

davidiowx wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:05 pm
^^ I hope it works!

Our daughter was born yesterday at 10:40am and all back home. Thankful as all get out Laura spared us here in Houston! Prayers to all affected. That first cool front can’t get here fast enough!
Awesome. Congratulations man.

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DoctorMu
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:47 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:54 pm
davidiowx wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:05 pm
^^ I hope it works!

Our daughter was born yesterday at 10:40am and all back home. Thankful as all get out Laura spared us here in Houston! Prayers to all affected. That first cool front can’t get here fast enough!
Congratulations!!
Great news, and doubly blessed.

Pas_Bon
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by Pas_Bon » Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:57 pm

I’m ready for cold weather. Lol
Egads, we have much more tropics-watching to go. Ugh.

BlueJay
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by BlueJay » Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:18 am

davidiowx wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:05 pm
^^ I hope it works!

Our daughter was born yesterday at 10:40am and all back home. Thankful as all get out Laura spared us here in Houston! Prayers to all affected. That first cool front can’t get here fast enough!
Congratulations and best wishes to your baby girl and family!

Cromagnum
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by Cromagnum » Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:25 am

Ugh. Line of storms just missed my house to the south. Getting hammered at the office though.

davidiowx
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by davidiowx » Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:00 am

Thanks for the best wishes everyone! Stay cool in this heat box!

Pas_Bon
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by Pas_Bon » Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:13 am

davidiowx wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:05 pm
^^ I hope it works!

Our daughter was born yesterday at 10:40am and all back home. Thankful as all get out Laura spared us here in Houston! Prayers to all affected. That first cool front can’t get here fast enough!

Congratulations

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tireman4
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by tireman4 » Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:58 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and storms along the coast will expand inland
with heating. Will carry a VCTS for inland TAF sites through the
aftn. Conditions will settle down with the loss of heating after
sunset. NAM fcst soundings show some potential for MVFR cigs after
09z. Not terribly confident and went with scattered decks for now.
Looks considerably drier on Saturday with only isolated PoPs in
the afternoon but probabilities look too low to mention in TAFs.
Moderate SSW winds will become south and decrease later tonight
and should be lighter on Saturday. 43


&&

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 554 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020/...

SHORT TERM [Today through Saturday]...

Main story in the short term will be the potentially dangerous heat
developing across southeast Texas. Temperatures this afternoon will
be able to climb into the upper 90s to low 100s, which combined with
lingering high dew points will lead to heat index values climbing
into the 108 to 110 degree range with some isolated spots even a
degree or two higher. So, a heat advisory has been issued across the
area for today. The main limiting factor for this will be how much
coverage showers and thunderstorms develops this afternoon. Early
this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms developed north of Houston
County, which CAM guidance brings into Houston, Trinity, Polk
counties by mid-morning. If these storms end up getting a bit
further south or west than expected, then heat index values may end
up struggling to get into the heat advisory criteria. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms may also develop along the coast this
afternoon.

Overnight low temperatures tonight will continue to be unseasonably
warm with temperatures only getting down into the upper 70s to low
80s and even higher along the coast. Record high minimum
temperatures will be possible at Galveston tonight.

Saturday is looking to be around just as hot as today, so additional
advisories may be needed, but will wait to see how today pans out
before issuing. Precipitation chances look lower on Saturday, so
temperatures may have even less trouble getting into potentially
dangerous levels.

Fowler

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

Saturday the upper trough will be departing into LA/MS and the
trailing shear axis shifts into the coastal waters with the
eastward expansion of the subtropical ridging over Nrn Mexico.
this should suppress convection over the northern counties but
the models all continue to support the spread of much high PW air
from the southern Gulf up into TX/LA Sunday afternoon and Monday.
Soundings showing a stout cap over the northern areas Sunday but
closer to the coast and over the Metro 2500-3300 j/kg - little CIN
and K index of 31+. Upper level wise not much of source of
development and at the surface only some very weak
convergence/seabreeze. Earlier runs were more generous with rain
chances Sunday and Monday and now the trend appears to be a little
drier Sunday and more focused on Monday. This overall pattern with
the surge of moisture looks promising but without much upper
support will limit rain chances mainly just chance and see what
later runs come up with for chances. The well above normal
temperatures should see some slight moderating with the
introduction over more moisture into the column but the afternoon
heat indices could well still be hovering in in the 105-108
degree range through Monday. Next issue is a weak early September
cold (cool) front pushing into the Red River late Tuesday
afternoon and eventually getting it close to or possibly even into
the CWA Wednesday late. Don`t want to get any hopes up about
temperature drops...rain cooled maybe along with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday.
45

MARINE...
Moderate southerly flow continues across the Gulf Waters with
seas at around four to five feet, so the caution flags remain
through mid- morning. The flow weakens this afternoon and the seas
should lower, which will continue through the weekend. A chance
of showers and thunderstorms will also continue through the
weekend with the highest change of precipitation occuring on
Sunday. These conditions will continue through midweek next week,
although seas may rise slightly.

Fowler

TROPICAL...
NHC has two areas of interest in the central/eastern Atlantic.
Looking through the GFS/ECMWF the guidance looks to favor these
for some development as they move west/slowly west but dry air may
hamper them. Eventually these move into the Caribbean and possibly
into the area east of the Yucatan/Bay of Campeche in the
Thursday-Saturday time frame next week. The ridge over the eastern
Atlantic looks to strengthen and shift west and the MDR gets more
active mid week. As one would expect for the peak of hurricane
season which says it is still a great idea to check back every few
days to see what is brewing.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 77 101 77 99 / 20 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 98 80 98 80 95 / 40 20 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 93 84 92 82 92 / 40 20 30 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

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