August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Waded
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by Waded » Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:01 pm

A lot of people without power right now, with more to come:

https://i.imgur.com/MnuETWU.jpg

In the peak of summer, no less. Sucks.

Also, big chlorine fire at plant near Lake Charles.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christophe ... 38d1f733d0

Chlorine was used as a chemical weapon in WW1.

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DoctorMu
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:50 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:23 am
Too close for comfort. Hopefully its a wakeup call for folks over here that were not in Houston for Ike how crazy this can get in a hurry.
Far too close. Props to NHC for keeping the track consistent while diurnal model fluctuations could have caused more chaos.

T&P to the people of SW Louisiana, and major destruction and devastation in Lake Charles. Som many people still without power and/or damage to their homes.

Watching the tropics while back to the usual summer weather. At least the back fence is shored up.

unome
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by unome » Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:49 pm

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 0969776128
Eric Blake🌀

I saw a lot of comments online about not moving the track westward near Houston when this ECMWF ensemble plot came out. #Laura actually made landfall outside of that ensemble (and that model usually has too much spread). Trust the professionals and don’t just worship one model!
can I get an "amen" 8-)

unome
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by unome » Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:56 pm

unome wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:49 pm
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 0969776128
Eric Blake🌀

I saw a lot of comments online about not moving the track westward near Houston when this ECMWF ensemble plot came out. #Laura actually made landfall outside of that ensemble (and that model usually has too much spread). Trust the professionals and don’t just worship one model!
can I get an "amen" 8-)
or two !

https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/12 ... 2864586752

Cromagnum
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:00 pm

Don't look now, but...

Image

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DoctorMu
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:19 pm

unome wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:49 pm
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 0969776128
Eric Blake🌀

I saw a lot of comments online about not moving the track westward near Houston when this ECMWF ensemble plot came out. #Laura actually made landfall outside of that ensemble (and that model usually has too much spread). Trust the professionals and don’t just worship one model!
can I get an "amen" 8-)
TBF, 3 out of 4 Ensembles had a Texas solution. Props to the NHC, though.

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DoctorMu
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:20 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:00 pm
Don't look now, but...

Image
Go away!



[you think that worked?] 8-)

davidiowx
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by davidiowx » Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:05 pm

^^ I hope it works!

Our daughter was born yesterday at 10:40am and all back home. Thankful as all get out Laura spared us here in Houston! Prayers to all affected. That first cool front can’t get here fast enough!

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by jasons2k » Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:54 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:19 pm
unome wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:49 pm
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 0969776128
Eric Blake🌀

I saw a lot of comments online about not moving the track westward near Houston when this ECMWF ensemble plot came out. #Laura actually made landfall outside of that ensemble (and that model usually has too much spread). Trust the professionals and don’t just worship one model!
can I get an "amen" 8-)
TBF, 3 out of 4 Ensembles had a Texas solution. Props to the NHC, though.
Yep, agreed. The NHC did a fantastic job. But I saw plenty of Pro-mets with forecasts of this going into Texas. Here is a snippet of a reply I posted on S2K, replying to one of our own friends about falling for the "Euro Ensemble" trap:

That's easy to say in hindsight, so don't be too hard on yourself. It wasn't just the 'Euro ensembles' and some anecdotal evidence the west trend would continue. There were plenty of solid arguments [at the time] for Laura going more west into Texas:

1) Laura, for most of her entire track, had been tracking on the west side of the guidance.
2) The Euro ensembles that showed the western shift, when analyzed individually, made the most meteorological sense at the time [for example, almost all of the ensembles with a stronger storm - a hurricane - went to Texas - and we all knew Laura would be a hurricane]
3) Verified pressures of the ridge versus the model verification, esp. the GFS, showed the SE ridge was a bit stronger than modeled.
4) The Euro Ensembles weren't alone. The UKMET was west, the PARA GFS had shifted west, and a most of the GFS ensembles were on Texas.

For a short period of time, it appeared that Texas, perhaps Galveston, was becoming a certainty.

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Post by jasons2k » Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:54 pm

davidiowx wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:05 pm
^^ I hope it works!

Our daughter was born yesterday at 10:40am and all back home. Thankful as all get out Laura spared us here in Houston! Prayers to all affected. That first cool front can’t get here fast enough!
Congratulations!!

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