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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:06 pm
by txbear
Ignore the troll.

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:06 pm
by Cpv17
javakah wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:04 pm
tropiKal wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:59 pm How pathetic. All that wonderful rain wasted on useless boonies...
Better than getting hit by a Cat 4.
Yeah if it’s anything stronger than a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2, I don’t really want anything to do with it.

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:06 pm
by srainhoutx

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Laura has continued to rapidly strengthen today with recent
visible satellite imagery revealing a very distinct 25 nautical-
mile-wide eye embedded in a symmetric central dense overcast. The
upper-level outflow has also become well established in all
quadrants. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that
is still investigating the hurricane has reported peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 136 kt and SFMR winds of 121 kt in the
northeast eyewall. These data support an initial intensity of
125 kt, which is an increase of 55 kt over the past 24 hours. The
minimum pressure has fallen to around 947 mb. The well-defined eye
is now within range of the NWS Lake Charles WSR-88D radar, and
hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates began at 1900 UTC (2 PM CDT) and
will continue through landfall and beyond overnight.

Laura still has about 12 hours remaining over the warm waters of the
northwest Gulf of Mexico waters, but increasing southwesterly shear
around the time of landfall and the possibility of an eyewall
replacement could result in some fluctuations in intensity this
evening, but Laura is expected to remain an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight. Although rapid
weakening is expected on Thursday as Laura moves inland, the
hurricane is expected to bring a swath of damaging winds well inland
over western Louisiana and extreme eastern Texas. The cyclone or
its remnants are forecast to move off Mid-Atlantic coast over the
weekend and there remains some possibility that Laura will
re-intensify as a tropical cyclone offshore of the United States
east before it merges with a frontal boundary later in the forecast
period.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Laura is moving
northwestward at about 13 kt. Laura is nearing the western extent
of a mid-level ridge that is located over the southeastern United
States. The hurricane should turn north-northwestward this evening
and northward on Thursday between the ridge and a weak trough over
the south-central United States. By Friday the cyclone should turn
northeastward and then east-northeastward as it becomes embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance continues to
be in good agreement through 72, but there are some forward speed
differences thereafter. The new NHC track is very close to the
previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Laura is a large hurricane and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the
hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and
widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions
of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far
eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to
minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee
Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 27.9N 92.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/0600Z 37.3N 85.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 38.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 43.2N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z 51.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown



Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:22 pm
by weatherguy425
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:03 pm
tropiKal wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:59 pm How pathetic. All that wonderful rain wasted on useless boonies...
There will be more threats over the next month. Let’s just hope for something weak, but honestly that’s not looking likely. The Gulf should recover from Laura within a week or so.
Upwelling will be very significant. Water temperatures will still support significant storms, but Laura is going to cool-down that portion of the “bath-tub” for a good bit.

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:23 pm
by Kingwood36
Not a drop of rain south of i10 looks like all the bands are on the north side..is that suppose to continue?

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:25 pm
by Cpv17
weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:22 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:03 pm
tropiKal wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:59 pm How pathetic. All that wonderful rain wasted on useless boonies...
There will be more threats over the next month. Let’s just hope for something weak, but honestly that’s not looking likely. The Gulf should recover from Laura within a week or so.
Upwelling will be very significant. Water temperatures will still support significant storms, but Laura is going to cool-down that portion of the “bath-tub” for a good bit.
Yeah that nw quadrant of the Gulf will take a while to recover but I don’t think the rest of the Gulf will have too much of a problem recovering. Also, it’s not like Laura is moving slow. She’s been moving in the 15-20 mph range so it’s not like she’s just sitting there in one spot or crawling.

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:27 pm
by weatherguy425
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:25 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:22 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:03 pm

There will be more threats over the next month. Let’s just hope for something weak, but honestly that’s not looking likely. The Gulf should recover from Laura within a week or so.
Upwelling will be very significant. Water temperatures will still support significant storms, but Laura is going to cool-down that portion of the “bath-tub” for a good bit.
Yeah that nw quadrant of the Gulf will take a while to recover but I don’t think the rest of the Gulf will have too much of a problem recovering.
Yep! Only referring to the area impacted by Laura. :)

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:27 pm
by tropiKal
javakah wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:04 pmBetter than getting hit by a Cat 4.
Nah, still a waste. Would have been much more excitement if it came to Houston (or South Texas) - lots of epic content for Instagram and SnapChat (not to mention much needed rainfall and greener plants).

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:28 pm
by Cpv17
weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:25 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:22 pm

Upwelling will be very significant. Water temperatures will still support significant storms, but Laura is going to cool-down that portion of the “bath-tub” for a good bit.
Yeah that nw quadrant of the Gulf will take a while to recover but I don’t think the rest of the Gulf will have too much of a problem recovering.
Yep! Only referring to the area impacted by Laura. :)
The ridging over the Atlantic looks scary for the Gulf.

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:28 pm
by DoctorMu
javakah wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:04 pm
tropiKal wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:59 pm How pathetic. All that wonderful rain wasted on useless boonies...
Better than getting hit by a Cat 4.
Troll alert. Just ignore them.

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:32 pm
by weatherguy425
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:28 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:25 pm

Yeah that nw quadrant of the Gulf will take a while to recover but I don’t think the rest of the Gulf will have too much of a problem recovering.
Yep! Only referring to the area impacted by Laura. :)
The ridging over the Atlantic looks scary for the Gulf.
Certainly something to watch!

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:35 pm
by Cpv17
weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:32 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:28 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Yep! Only referring to the area impacted by Laura. :)
The ridging over the Atlantic looks scary for the Gulf.
Certainly something to watch!
I prefer it that way, for sure. I just don’t want majors making landfall.

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:39 pm
by Kingwood36
Not a drop south of i 10...it it suppose to stay like this?

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:40 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:39 pm Not a drop south of i 10...it it suppose to stay like this?
For the most part, yes. Well south of 10 and west of 45 anyway.

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:47 pm
by HurricaneMike
I can't believe how intense this has become this close to landfall. Atleast Katrina peaked mid-day and hit the next morning. Laura is peaking super-close to landfall.

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:53 pm
by AtascocitaWX
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:01 pm
snowman65 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:56 pm Cameron landfall?
Yeah. I said that yesterday. Looks like it’ll verify.
It would have to go N to hit Cameron. its still has a NW jog.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satell ... ,m:erPadzI

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:04 pm
by tireman4
More inner-core lightning in #Laura, with the structure very suggestive of Wavenumber-2 mesovortices forcing convective bursts. What a powerful storm. pic.twitter.com/h9EDQhwRnH
-- Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) August 26, 2020

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:08 pm
by Cpv17
AtascocitaWX wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:53 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:01 pm
snowman65 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:56 pm Cameron landfall?
Yeah. I said that yesterday. Looks like it’ll verify.
It would have to go N to hit Cameron. its still has a NW jog.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satell ... ,m:erPadzI
I think if you want to get down to the exact spot, Constance Beach may be a good bet.

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:14 pm
by sambucol
AtascocitaWX wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:53 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:01 pm
snowman65 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:56 pm Cameron landfall?
Yeah. I said that yesterday. Looks like it’ll verify.
It would have to go N to hit Cameron. its still has a NW jog.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satell ... ,m:erPadzI
If it stays on a NW jog for much longer, where would Laura make landfall?

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:23 pm
by tireman4
I guess if you extrapolate it NW, then I would suppose Chambers County....but it will start its northward turn soon