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Ike was a major hurricane I don’t care what anybody says

Forecast model of Invest 92L.



Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) has Invest 92L/Isaias as a hurricane over Bahamas this Saturday. Subject to change.

Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)
https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps ... ragada.pdf

GFS Ensemble for Invest 92L.



Looks to be an East Coast hurricane at this time. Always subject to change.

92L will likely we a slow developer and probably will not slow down it's rapid Westerly motion until mid/late this week as it begins its approach to the Eastern Caribbean. Careful with the various computer schemes including the ensembles beyond 3 to 5 days. I suspect they will not an idea what might happen until reconnaissance missions from the AF and possibly a G-IV high altitude mission give additional data to those model solutions.

Models tend to recurve systems out to sea at first and then adjust back west with time. Don’t let your guard down with 92L because it’s way too early for models to know where it’ll go. Ridges and troughs constantly change, especially past 3 days.

I'm liking the gfs and I never like the gfs
I'm really hoping for a recurve and ots

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:52 pm Models tend to recurve systems out to sea at first and then adjust back west with time. Don’t let your guard down with 92L because it’s way too early for models to know where it’ll go. Ridges and troughs constantly change, especially past 3 days.

I am not letting my guards down yet.

The latest Euro takes this as far west as the central Gulf before turning north. Models shifting further south and west it seems.

Let’s see how strong that trough is

quite the storn - no chance of getting back to sleep now though, might as well put the coffee on !

https://map.blitzortung.org/#7.14/29.712/-95.461
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

The HRRR is having fits trying to figure this setup out.

Raining like crazy south of town since about 5 AM. Glad I mowed.

Got another .60 this morning. I’ll take it!

August Precip Climo - it looks like there is a dry donut hole right over Jason's neighborhood - validation

large image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeWiNa0U4AA ... =4096x4096

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/sta ... 28/photo/1

unome wrote: ↑Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:20 am August Precip Climo - it looks like there is a dry donut hole right over Jason's neighborhood - validation

large image: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeWiNa0U4AA ... =4096x4096

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/sta ... 28/photo/1

Hehe! Yep a big red/brown dot right on me.

Total opposite of the Tampa Bay area.

There are some storms up to the northwest drifting down towards the area.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:11 pm There are some storms up to the northwest drifting down towards the area.

Yeah, we've been getting that northerly flow for about 24 hours. Breezy and some cells drifting down toward B/CS. The last few days are the kind of Texas summer I can live with.

Enjoying this while it lasts (which won't be long)!

It’s still really hot down here in Wharton today. It’s very steamy here because of all the rain we’ve had. Quite uncomfortable out there.

Major donut hole effect with this cluster. Northern skies with dark blue green a moment ago. Seas attempting to part...

It's 2 AM at the August climo bar, and we need to belly up one last time!