August 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stormlover2020
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Re: August 2020

Post by Stormlover2020 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:08 pm

Ike was a major hurricane I don’t care what anybody says

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Ptarmigan
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Re: August 2020

Post by Ptarmigan » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:23 am

Forecast model of Invest 92L.

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Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) has Invest 92L/Isaias as a hurricane over Bahamas this Saturday. Subject to change.

Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)
https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps ... ragada.pdf

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Ptarmigan
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Re: August 2020

Post by Ptarmigan » Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:25 pm

GFS Ensemble for Invest 92L.

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Looks to be an East Coast hurricane at this time. Always subject to change.

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srainhoutx
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Re: August 2020

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:16 pm

92L will likely we a slow developer and probably will not slow down it's rapid Westerly motion until mid/late this week as it begins its approach to the Eastern Caribbean. Careful with the various computer schemes including the ensembles beyond 3 to 5 days. I suspect they will not an idea what might happen until reconnaissance missions from the AF and possibly a G-IV high altitude mission give additional data to those model solutions.
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Cpv17
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Re: August 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:52 pm

Models tend to recurve systems out to sea at first and then adjust back west with time. Don’t let your guard down with 92L because it’s way too early for models to know where it’ll go. Ridges and troughs constantly change, especially past 3 days.

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Texaspirate11
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Re: August 2020

Post by Texaspirate11 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:27 pm

I'm liking the gfs and I never like the gfs
I'm really hoping for a recurve and ots
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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Ptarmigan
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Re: August 2020

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:04 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:52 pm
Models tend to recurve systems out to sea at first and then adjust back west with time. Don’t let your guard down with 92L because it’s way too early for models to know where it’ll go. Ridges and troughs constantly change, especially past 3 days.
I am not letting my guards down yet.

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Re: August 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:11 pm

The latest Euro takes this as far west as the central Gulf before turning north. Models shifting further south and west it seems.

Stormlover2020
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Re: August 2020

Post by Stormlover2020 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:51 pm

Let’s see how strong that trough is

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Re: August 2020

Post by unome » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:37 am

quite the storn - no chance of getting back to sleep now though, might as well put the coffee on !

https://map.blitzortung.org/#7.14/29.712/-95.461
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

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