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Just getting the hottest month of the year started

WORST
MONTH
OF
THE
YEAR

Will be busy with the tropics.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:41 pm WORST
MONTH
OF
THE
YEAR

We may be leaving town, traveling in a bubble.

While it is in the longer range of the ECMWF, the disturbance that exited Africa yesterday may be worth watching as it traverses the MDR.

The disturbance that the ECMWF is suggesting may pose a threat to the NW Caribbean/Gulf the first week of August has been designated 92L near the Cape Verde Islands. Thought I would post the information here since July will be over soon and early August would be any potential threat to the Gulf.

All aboard the wave train. Choo Choo!

The last official major hurricane to make a direct strike on the Houston/Galveston area was Category 3 Hurricane Alicia on Thursday, August 18, 1983 at 2:00 am, with maximum sustained winds of 115mph and a minimum central air pressure 962mb. Just food for thought for our weather forum.

The NHC just increased the odds of development for 92L up to 50%.

Big batch of SAL coming off Africa too

Ike was a major hurricane I don’t care what anybody says

Forecast model of Invest 92L.



Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) has Invest 92L/Isaias as a hurricane over Bahamas this Saturday. Subject to change.

Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)
https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps ... ragada.pdf

GFS Ensemble for Invest 92L.



Looks to be an East Coast hurricane at this time. Always subject to change.

92L will likely we a slow developer and probably will not slow down it's rapid Westerly motion until mid/late this week as it begins its approach to the Eastern Caribbean. Careful with the various computer schemes including the ensembles beyond 3 to 5 days. I suspect they will not an idea what might happen until reconnaissance missions from the AF and possibly a G-IV high altitude mission give additional data to those model solutions.

Models tend to recurve systems out to sea at first and then adjust back west with time. Don’t let your guard down with 92L because it’s way too early for models to know where it’ll go. Ridges and troughs constantly change, especially past 3 days.

I'm liking the gfs and I never like the gfs
I'm really hoping for a recurve and ots

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:52 pm Models tend to recurve systems out to sea at first and then adjust back west with time. Don’t let your guard down with 92L because it’s way too early for models to know where it’ll go. Ridges and troughs constantly change, especially past 3 days.

I am not letting my guards down yet.

The latest Euro takes this as far west as the central Gulf before turning north. Models shifting further south and west it seems.

Let’s see how strong that trough is

quite the storn - no chance of getting back to sleep now though, might as well put the coffee on !

https://map.blitzortung.org/#7.14/29.712/-95.461
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/