August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF]...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with light and at
times VRB winds prevailing through Tue. A few SHRA or TSRA could develop late this afternoon into evening, as an upper level shortwave moves across the CWA. A cluster of storms may develop to our NW and could move south southeastward into the local area as well. For this reason, kept the VCTS in this forecast package.

If activity does develop, it should dissipate by around 03Z
tonight. Thereafter, skies clearing and winds will continue light
and VRB through the rest of the period
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Showers motoring through the Hill country, but they'll probably collapse before a Cameron to LaGrange line.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Implosion at the Brazos Co. line.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.AVIATION...

VFR. Morning mid levels clouds should be replace with some high levels
clouds moving into the area from the north. Continue to carry VCTS for
possible SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon. Most activity should
dissipate early this evening. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...

A weak east to southeast moving shortwave (evident on water vapor satellite
imagery) is moving into Southeast Texas early this morning. Some high
resolution models have been insisting on possible isolated shower development
before or shortly after sunrise, maybe associated with the interaction
of the shortwave and some leftover boundaries from yesterday evening`s
activity. Will continue to monitor. Still looking like the day`s best
shower and thunderstorm chances will come beginning in the mid to late
afternoon hours when the low to mid 90s convective temperatures are
reached, and they will possible continue into the early evening hours.
Might get some brief/strong wind gusts with stronger activity. Tonight
through Wednesday morning should stay on the quiet side, then look
for the area`s next chance of showers and thunderstorms coming mainly
in the afternoon through early evening hours during peak heating time.
Some activity could linger on into Wednesday night.

Peak heat index values for both today and tomorrow will mainly be in
a 100-105 range. 42

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday]...

Expect typical summer-time weather through the long term period for
Southeast Texas with max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and
lows in the mid to upper 70s. There will be lingering showers and
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area Wednesday night as
a shortwave rounds the edge of the upper level ridge located over
the Desert Southwest. The aforementioned upper level ridge will
slowly move eastward and be centered over Texas by Friday. As it
does so, it becomes less amplified across CONUS and more zonal flow
takes over through the end of the long term period. Precipitation
chances through the rest of the period will be from the typical
isolated showers and thunderstorms that form along the sea breeze
each afternoon thanks to daytime heating pretty much every day.

Fowler

MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore winds and low seas can be expected for much
of the area this week. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible mainly in the afternoon through early
evening hours each day. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 75 99 75 98 / 20 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 76 96 77 96 / 30 20 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 81 91 81 90 / 30 20 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Both the GFS & GFS Para have been showing something brewing in the w. Caribbean for about 4 consecutive runs now but it’s two weeks out. Fantasy land for now.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Some showers popping up to the north and drifting south...
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

jasons2k wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:45 pm Some showers popping up to the north and drifting south...
watching, but think it will miss us in Cypress - better chances for you though !

Image
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

The usual split....
Attachments
2FCF4609-F15D-4C9E-9942-279C590CDD39.png
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Powerful storms unexpected here in Beaumont. Pouring! Power just went out. And im still working from home, lol... I guess im done for the day.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

TXZ200-213-214-300-313-042300-
Northern Liberty TX-Chambers TX-Coastal Harris TX-Inland Harris TX-
Southern Liberty TX-
526 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Humble to near Lake Houston Dam to near
Crosby. Movement was south at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pasadena, Baytown, Deer Park, Humble, Galena Park,
Jacinto City, Beach City, Cloverleaf, Channelview, Highlands,
Barrett, Greater Fifth Ward, Second Ward, Crosby, Mont Belvieu, Cove,
Bush Intercontinental Airport, Harrisburg / Manchester, Magnolia Park
and Northshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Lake Houston, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 052046 CCA
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
346 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Afternoon]...

Fair weather prevailed this morning and early afternoon across
Southeast TX. Sunny skies this morning and early afternoon allowed
for temperatures to rise up to the mid 90s by 1 PM CDT along areas
north of I-10 and are expected to rise into the upper 90s,
particularly along areas west of I-45 and north of I-10. Make sure
to practice Heat Safety if you plan to be outdoors today.

Earlier this morning, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
developing over Northern TX and OK moved south southeastward into
Northeast TX and Northwest LA. With these storms a surge of low
level moisture was expected, increasing PWs up to around 2.1 inches
across the eastern half of the CWA. GOES 16 TPW has confirmed this
surge, with PWs already at 1.9 to 2.1 inches over the eastern
half of the CWA as of 1 PM CDT today, which will help increase the
potential for storm development for today. The combination of the
moisture, diurnal heating, instability and several outflow
boundaries (from the storms now located over Western LA and
Eastern TX as well as the local seabreeze boundaries) will produce
showers and thunderstorms starting over the northeastern quadrant
of the CWA and expand southward into the eastern and central
portions throughout the afternoon hours. As moisture and heating
increases, expected these storms to intensify. Most of the
development should mainly affect areas that are located along
I-45 and eastward, but a stray shower or thunderstorm should not
be ruled out along the rest of the central and southern areas.
Frequent lightning, strong gusty, and heavy rainfall will
accompany these showers and thunderstorms. Slow moving storms
producing heavy rainfall could lead to minor urban/rural and
street flooding. The SPC Day 1 Outlook continues a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms for areas east of a line extending from
Madison County southward through Galveston County. By the late
evening into early night hours, weather conditions will improve
and skies will scatter out.

A weak mid to upper level shortwave will move east southeastward
across Northeast TX and Northwest LA tonight into Thursday morning.
This feature, combined with ample moisture lingering over eastern TX
and western LA could produce additional isolated showers and
thunderstorms for those regions during the night hours. Although
most of the models keep this activity to our east, we also have
fairly good moisture in place along areas east of I-45, and have
thus added low PoPs for those locations. Thursday morning, showers
and thunderstorms over LA will be expanding westward and into our
eastern counties. Storm development will increase and expand
further across the CWA as heating ramps up in the afternoon. PoPs
were slightly increased for Thursday. High temperatures will once
again be in the mid to upper 90s along areas north of I-10 and in
the low to mid 90s along areas south of I-10. 24

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

Thursday Night through Saturday...Upper level ridge builds over the
area from the west with height rises suggesting mainly seasonably
hot and dry conditions although cannot rule out an isolated
afternoon thunderstorm.

Sunday through Wednesday...Ridge retrogrades west some by
Sunday...especially in the GFS which shows a trough at 500 mb
between ridges to the east and west. This would suggest higher
thunderstorm chances Sunday...although still mainly the diurnal
variety...with chances near the coast in the morning and mainly
afternoon inland with max heating. Global model QPF supports this
idea showing more precipitation and coverage Sunday afternoon
compared to prior days. As far as the weather next week...in
general not expecting significant rains...but fairly typical
summertime weather with seasonable hot and humid conditions...and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms...mainly following
typical diurnal pattern...with morning chances near the coast...and
mainly afternoon inland.

18

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft will continue today. A more
pronounced onshore flow will begin Thursday and continue through
early next week. A diurnal wind pattern Friday into the upcoming
weekend will increase winds slightly during the nighttime hours
and briefly elevate seas to around 3 ft mainly for the Gulf waters
adjacent to Matagorda Bay. Chance for showers and thunderstorms
returns this weekend. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 98 75 97 75 / 30 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 94 76 94 75 / 40 30 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 90 82 / 20 20 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation/Marine...24
Long Term/Fire Weather...18
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Another storm in Beaumont. This one is scary. Trees are down. Power is out at home and all over town. Streets flooded. Wasn’t expecting a round 2 today. Sheesh... now it’s getting hot.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Lucy...
Attachments
16AA63F7-CCD7-4778-8808-CF1D1C6432AE.png
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Still without power in todays storms in beaumont. Its getting musty humid and hot inside now. 9,000 outages according to entergy....Neighborhood is out. Generators in the distance. Area damage. Trees down. Blackness outside and silence and generators makes It feel like we are post hurricane mode. Erie silence.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 060908
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
408 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...

Showers are starting off in the eastern forecast area and some areas
of mist in the north. All this is expected to clear early this
morning giving way to scattered skies and a southeasterly breeze
throughout most of the day. This afternoon is expected to heat
enough to cause some diurnal convection to take hold but mainly
effect the area east of I-45 and I-10 and north. These afternoon
showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected to dissipate shortly
after sunset leaving behind overnight scattered skies and chances of
mist developing in the region. Friday will look similar with mainly
coastal showers in the afternoon as the upper level ridge build into
the area and takes hold. Winds will remain southerly and light with
the breeze along the coastal counties a little stronger in the
evening. Highs are expected to warm into the mid 90s with cooler
temperatures along the coast and higher in the northern counties.
Lows are cooling to the mid to upper 70s overall. 35


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

The upper level ridge remains over Texas through the weekend and
into the middle of next week continuing the mostly clear skies and
warm temperatures through the period. There will be a chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms that develop along the sea
breeze on Saturday. On Sunday, a very weak shortwave will move
across the area originating from Louisiana that slides across the
underside of the upper level ridge. This added upper level support
may help fuel the afternoon activity along the coast on Sunday, so
expect a bit more coverage on Sunday compared to Saturday. The
coverage of these afternoon showers will decrease Monday and
Tuesday, but an isolated shower along the coast will still be
possible. The pattern begins to change a bit by the middle of next
week as the upper level ridge begins to weaken across the Southern
Plains allowing for an upper level low to move into Oklahoma and
northern Texas on Wednesday and Thursday. This weakness aloft could
help fuel afternoon thunderstorms for not only along the coast, but
also further inland all the way up to Houston County. Still a ways
away, so don`t have anything more than 40 in the PoPs on Wednesday
or Thursday.

Temperatures through the period will be pretty much a persistence
forecast. High temperatures each day will be in the upper 80s to low
90s along the coast, mid to upper 90s further inland, and then up
into the upper 90s or even low 100s in the BCS area. The only hiccup
in these highs will be for areas along the coast where a well placed
thunderstorm may keep the high temperature lower than forecasted.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 70s across most of the
inland areas through the period with areas along the coast only
getting down into the upper 70s to low 80s.ere.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

A few showers in the eastern CWA and some areas of mist is
effecting the CXO area with in and out condition`s down to 1 mile.
Otherwise, VFR flying conditions at the TAF sites as the showers
dissipate and mist burns off shortly after sunrise. Southwesterly
winds and scattered skies will be seen in the forecast area. This
afternoon, areas of convection is expected but only expected to
effect CXO/IAH/HOU/SGR areas and some showers at LBX and chances
of showers in the UTS vicinity. Overnight, conditions will be VFR
with some chances of mist forming across the area but not
forecasted below MVFR. 35

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and smooth seas through the day. A more onshore flow
will begin tonight mainly in the Matagorda area and then effecting
the entire coastal area through the weekend. Winds will gradually
strengthen over the weekend as well as seas building back up to 2ft,
with some intermittent times up to 3ft. Higher chances of coastal
showers return over the weekend and into next week. 35



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 98 75 98 74 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 76 95 76 95 / 20 10 10 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 90 83 90 / 20 10 10 0 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...35
MARINE...35
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Sooooooooo...when is that first fall cool front...ya know..lows in the 60s/50s👀
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

We used to take/make bets on the first front coming through...I always go with climo ( ala Dan Meador..:)) September 25th
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1787
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

tireman4 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:41 am We used to take/make bets on the first front coming through...I always go with climo ( ala Dan Meador..:)) September 25th
I really miss Dan.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Rip76 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:55 am
tireman4 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:41 am We used to take/make bets on the first front coming through...I always go with climo ( ala Dan Meador..:)) September 25th
I really miss Dan.
Me too. Especially the really wild days back in the 2000s of this board....it was wild....LOL
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Amazon [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 70 guests