August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Already took down my shutters and turned on the sprinkler and fixing to fire up the grill
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5692
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

biggerbyte wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:16 pm Businesses closed early today. Doctors left at noon to prepare for the mess that is coming. I lost my very important doctors appointment. People evacuated. Those in Louisiana thought Texas was ground zero. We are down to 24 hours and basically moment casting. I've said it for years now that model casting is nearly useless. Sure do miss the good old days. To those of you in Louisiana our hearts and prayers go out to you. Those of us in Texas dodged a bullet even though many needed the rain. We simply have to do a better job than this in weather forecasting. It has become absolutely ridiculous.

To be fair, the NHC and sensible forecasters on television have been pretty accurate, predicting SW Louisiana or the TX-La border since Laura began skirting Cuba.
Ace
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:07 pm
Location: Spring
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:16 pm 150 mph predicted by NHC at landfall.

https://twitter.com/ABStormChasers/stat ... 65025?s=20
I know many on here are saying that west of I 45 isn’t going to get anything. However I am very close to I 45 and when I look at the wind models or maps it really shows that I’m right on the border of heavy tropical storm winds.

Does anyone have any idea if right off of 45 I’m going to be in that zone? It was pretty wild during ache when we had 1635 mm winds and it looks like this is about the same in our are

I’m not quite understanding how, if 150 mile an hour storm is hitting around Beaumont, how we’re not going to get bands of rain and wind around 45?
Last edited by Ace on Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19616
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

NOAA RECON suggests that Laura may be nearing Cat 5 status.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:31 pm NOAA RECON suggests that Laura may be nearing Cat 5 status.
screw it....come on...take it all. Leave nothing for me to clean up or fix.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3440
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

biggerbyte wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:16 pm Businesses closed early today. Doctors left at noon to prepare for the mess that is coming. I lost my very important doctors appointment. People evacuated. Those in Louisiana thought Texas was ground zero. We are down to 24 hours and basically moment casting. I've said it for years now that model casting is nearly useless. Sure do miss the good old days. To those of you in Louisiana our hearts and prayers go out to you. Those of us in Texas dodged a bullet even though many needed the rain. We simply have to do a better job than this in weather forecasting. It has become absolutely ridiculous.
It has always been the case that you overprepare for storms like this due to the inconsistencies in forecasts. The "good old days" never existed and current forecasts are the most accurate they have ever been! Yes, this was a complex forecast and the error rate was higher than usual, but the NHC did a fantastic job and accurately forecasted landfall several days ahead of time. A cat 4/5 hurricane is not something you want to mess around with and these minor inconveniences of doctor appointments being rescheduled or businesses closing early are much better than losing lives and property.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5692
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Laura will be 3rd or 4th.

Strongest US hurricanes since 1970:
1. Andrew (1992): 165 mph
2. Michael (2018): 160 mph
3. Charley (2004): 150 mph
4. Hugo (1989): 140 mph
5. Irma (2017): 130 mph
5. Harvey (2017): 130 mph
5. Frederic (1979): 130 mph*
8. Katrina (2005): 125 mph
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5692
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

937 mBar pressure; 153 mph on recon...waiting for report.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5692
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Level 1:
Incredible wind velocities of 180 - 205 mph just above the ground were observed by a dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall of #Laura, helping to confirm the winds the plane observed. The surface winds would be lower due to friction, but still extreme.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 02602?s=20
Scott747
Posts: 1488
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

Well we've locked in on what we think is ground zero. Josh is headed that way now.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3440
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Scott747 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:05 pm Well we've locked in on what we think is ground zero. Josh is headed that way now.
Wish him luck from all of us here on the board! It is going to be a crazy night.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5692
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Image
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Looks to be going almost due north now.
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1788
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

This is going to be devastating.
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1788
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

Can anyone post storm chaser links?
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4000
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

The lightning in Hurricane Laura suggest it is still intensifying.
Scott747
Posts: 1488
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

Andrew wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:07 pm
Scott747 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:05 pm Well we've locked in on what we think is ground zero. Josh is headed that way now.
Wish him luck from all of us here on the board! It is going to be a crazy night.

Will do. I'll have him drop by once things settle down.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4483
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

And this is just the third inning of a 20 inning game, like jason said..
dac
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 8:50 pm
Location: Tomball
Contact:

Rip76 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:24 pm Can anyone post storm chaser links?
https://livestormchasing.com/map
dac
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 8:50 pm
Location: Tomball
Contact:

dac wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:47 pm
Rip76 wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:24 pm Can anyone post storm chaser links?
https://livestormchasing.com/map
Another one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1Ee4F7q-o
Post Reply
  • Information