August 2020:

[srainhoutx]

Also as a side note having the board hopping makes me miss Dan Meador

Me too. I truly miss my old friend during tropical troubles...sigh

[Cpv17]

I remember being in Humble during Rita and if I remember correctly it was forecast closer to us then it "wobbled" to the east at landfall. I also just wonder if this is another day east, night west type of thing. It's been very interesting to watch to say the least.

When Rita was near the FL keys, it was actually forecasted to go towards Matagorda. That was a massive east shift.

[jabcwb2]

When is the next recon?

[srainhoutx]

When is the next recon?

NOAA RECON enroute and the High Altitude G-IV is flying now sampling over the Gulf.

[weatherguy425]

Global + ensemble 12Z suite.

It’s not smart to play games with threats this big. Even subtle changes that can happen 12-18 hours from landfall can impact track. The angle of our coastline makes even small changes impactful.

[tireman4]

I remember being in Humble during Rita and if I remember correctly it was forecast closer to us then it "wobbled" to the east at landfall. I also just wonder if this is another day east, night west type of thing. It's been very interesting to watch to say the least.

I was in Humble during Rita ( still am) and yes, you are correct

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I remember being in Humble during Rita and if I remember correctly it was forecast closer to us then it "wobbled" to the east at landfall. I also just wonder if this is another day east, night west type of thing. It's been very interesting to watch to say the least.

When Rita was near the FL keys, it was actually forecasted to go towards Matagorda. That was a massive east shift.

It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.

Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.

[jabcwb2]

When is the next recon?

NOAA RECON enroute and the High Altitude G-IV is flying now sampling over the Gulf.

Yay, thanks!!

[tireman4]

Also as a side note having the board hopping makes me miss Dan Meador

Me too. I truly miss my old friend during tropical troubles...sigh

Oh man, me too. Our teasing him about Star Trek was so cool. He would dress up as the characters...and many many more Dan Meador stories. When he got go on air, we would give him so many atta boys...we were so happy ( Dan was a behind the scenes, IT Met)....

[tireman4]

I remember being in Humble during Rita and if I remember correctly it was forecast closer to us then it "wobbled" to the east at landfall. I also just wonder if this is another day east, night west type of thing. It's been very interesting to watch to say the least.

When Rita was near the FL keys, it was actually forecasted to go towards Matagorda. That was a massive east shift.

It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.

Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.

Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

When Rita was near the FL keys, it was actually forecasted to go towards Matagorda. That was a massive east shift.

It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.

Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.

Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...

I remember the Rita fluctuations and last minute curveball more than Ike.

I felt like Ike was locked and loaded for us 24-36 hours out. Rita took a turn at the last minute

[tireman4]

Also of note in this loop is the lack of significant asymmetry downshear (south) of Laura that was present over the last couple of days. Along with a more favorable upper-level pattern, this suggests that whatever shear is left is barely affecting Laura. pic.twitter.com/nOIvORnoo5
-- Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 25, 2020

[tireman4]

It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.

Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.

Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...

I remember the Rita fluctuations and last minute curveball more than Ike.

I felt like Ike was locked and loaded for us 24-36 hours out. Rita took a turn at the last minute

But the half week leading up to Ike...it was up and down the coast..remember..the models...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...

I remember the Rita fluctuations and last minute curveball more than Ike.

I felt like Ike was locked and loaded for us 24-36 hours out. Rita took a turn at the last minute

But the half week leading up to Ike...it was up and down the coast..remember..the models...

I do remember south Texas then mid then oh heyooo

[Cpv17]

It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.

Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.

Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...

I remember the Rita fluctuations and last minute curveball more than Ike.

I felt like Ike was locked and loaded for us 24-36 hours out. Rita took a turn at the last minute

For those that don’t remember, Rita was the 4th strongest storm in the Atlantic basin on record (895mb/180mph winds). Unreal! Weakened significantly as it neared the coast though.

[TexasBreeze]

More times than not they like to turn sooner than later.
Neat to see Marco swirl on radar south of LCH moving westward. Wonder if those remnants could cause an earlier turn?

[DoctorMu]

It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.

Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.

Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...

I remember the Rita fluctuations and last minute curveball more than Ike.

I felt like Ike was locked and loaded for us 24-36 hours out. Rita took a turn at the last minute

Exactly.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I pissed into a 35 mph breeze off the back porch of Northgate in CS to give College Station it’s trace amount of precip from Rita.

[mcheer23]

Frank from Ch 2, says he’s expecting an eastward shift in the models into Louisiana due to the weaker High pressure

[tireman4]

I pissed into a 35 mph breeze off the back porch of Northgate in CS to give College Station it’s trace amount of precip from Rita.

Scandalous