August 2020:

Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:55 pm

Did I board up my house in Baytown for no reason?? Has the storm changed it’s track?

Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:56 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:49 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:48 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:18 pm Hey Scott... if I paid Josh, would he let me chase with him?
lol. Nah he would politely turn you down.

We're not chasing together because of Covid-19. Trying to socially distance in a major hurricane just isn't gonna work. My wife couldn't find me a n-95 mask that was rated in the 100+ mph range.

LOL, thanks for the feedback. That’s funny.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:56 pm

sambucol wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:55 pm Did I board up my house in Baytown for no reason?? Has the storm changed it’s track?

I don't think so.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:58 pm

sambucol wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:55 pm Did I board up my house in Baytown for no reason?? Has the storm changed it’s track?

There will always be some uncertainty and risk in doing things that don’t turn out to be necessary. But, there remains enough uncertainty to prepare, no doubt about it.

No big changes. Ironically, NHC track and cone has changed very little today.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:03 pm

Did I drive to Padre for no reason.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:07 pm

Rip76 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:03 pm Did I drive to Padre for no reason.

Yes, yes you did Rip you old salt. Reminds of a story....back in the old days of the forum, during Ike...it was crazy. Folks were coming in, giving their three cents and leaving. Some were just there for the kerfuffle. Anyway, a gentleman came in and stated, "Stop what you are doing. Drop the hammer and nails. It is over. The storm is not coming. I have seen the future" Boy, did we breathe a sigh of relief. He was right on the money, he was.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:08 pm

Remember your texas edit mask along with the hurricane kits!

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:09 pm

Thanks. I’ve worked all day and have battle scars to prove it lol! This skinny ol gal had to do it myself.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:10 pm

GEFS Para ensembles shift east.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:14 pm

sambucol wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:55 pm Did I board up my house in Baytown for no reason?? Has the storm changed it’s track?

If it's any consolation, Bill Read boarded up his house as well...

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:20 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:14 pm
sambucol wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:55 pm Did I board up my house in Baytown for no reason?? Has the storm changed it’s track?
If it's any consolation, Bill Read boarded up his house as well...

Ha!

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:29 pm

Important #Laura storm surge UPDATE: There is danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis Pass,TX, to the Mouth of the MS River, including areas in the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system pic.twitter.com/GOHZ1xps7f
-- National Weather Service (@NWS) August 25, 2020

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:33 pm

Andrew wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:04 pm
AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:00 pm
Andrew wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:56 pm The more NW movement that we have been seeing is good news for us. A lot of the models had the storm continuing at a west or WNW movement for much of today. I expect more "stair-climbing" but the trend has been favorable for us. I think between tx-124 and the border is looking most likely at this point for landfall
Still looks like a WNW movement on the visible.
A WNW movement may have continued but the overall trend definitely gained more latitude than what a lot of the westerly favoring models were showing. Even the ECMWF was showing some west trends for today that never happened.

This is the graphic I was talking about earlier. That looks like more of a nw movement than wnw. Extrapolate that out and take into account the north turn as it nears the coast and you’d get a LA landfall. Andrew posted it. It’s on page 200.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:37 pm

Looks like GFS has slowly trended to east of Sabine Pass today.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:41 pm

Tx2005 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:37 pm Looks like GFS has slowly trended to east of Sabine Pass today.

Same location as the previous run.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:42 pm

I remember being in Humble during Rita and if I remember correctly it was forecast closer to us then it "wobbled" to the east at landfall. I also just wonder if this is another day east, night west type of thing. It's been very interesting to watch to say the least.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:45 pm

My mom reminded me of hurricane Alicia and we thought it was going another way. Went to sleep and woke up with it on top of us. Could that happen?

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:48 pm

Also as a side note having the board hopping makes me miss Dan Meador

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:49 pm

christinac2016 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:45 pm My mom reminded me of hurricane Alicia and we thought it was going another way. Went to sleep and woke up with it on top of us. Could that happen?

You never can completely rule that out. It’s a possibility but I’ll say we’ve came a long way with forecasting since Alicia.

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:50 pm

gregco31 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:48 pm Also as a side note having the board hopping makes me miss Dan Meador

Dan Meador was the man!

August 2020:

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