August 2020:

[Cpv17]

Ive been thinking since yesterday that Chambers county may be the landfall location. It seems like models have honed in on an area from Galveston to the Sabine. If Laura hits from Chambers county or points west of their metro Houston could receive hurricane force winds. As that would bring the core into the metro area,especially those along and east of I-45.

My prediction is High Island.

[Scott747]

So I'm getting a better feel for why they have stuck with a border track and hasn't been coming up. 0z Ukie ensemble mean was over the border like the operational GFS ensembles. Heavy weight with the two influences the track.

[weatherguy425]

ECMWF just started running

[davidiowx]

Looks like they nudged the cone a tad west on the 1pm update

[don]

12z GFS ensembles with a consensus into Chambers county.

[unome]

Looks like they nudged the cone a tad west on the 1pm update

intermediate advisories only have current position changes, not track changes

[davidiowx]

Looks like they nudged the cone a tad west on the 1pm update

intermediate advisories only have current position changes, not track changes

Thanks, my eyes have essentially been crossed starring at these things for the past several days.

I would have to think the track will adjust west at 5pm considering the 12z Euro just showed Galveston bay according to s2k. Still waiting on tropicaltidbits to update

[weatherguy425]

ECMWF just started running

Only 24-hours in, but ridging is a touch stronger, Texas trough is weaker... may be further west.

[mcheer23]

Looks like itll hit near the border to me

[Waded]

Went to the local Walmart to buy an air mattress in case I need to camp in the Jeep if the power goes out. Walmart slammed, every register open and still huge lines.

[mcheer23]

Yup shift east by EURO

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Chambers County for Euro?

[Cpv17]

It’ll be back west tonight lol

[weatherguy425]

Yup shift east by EURO

Yep - interesting.

[don]

12z EURO shifts slightly east to the chambers/Jefferson county line.

[srainhoutx]

Chambers County for Euro?

Near Port Arthur. It is stronger than the 00Z run. In the 930's for pressure. That's conducive for Cat 4.

[sau27]

euro shift east, but not as much as the 12z has shifted east the past few days

[Waded]

A bit of a relieve to see some of the models shift back to the border! I hope it keeps.

[snowman65]

A bit of a relieve to see some of the models shift back to the border! I hope it keeps.

speak for yourself....lol

[Kingwood36]

Will the track shift at 4?