August 2020:

[Scott747]

0z Euro is already starting off wrong given the current location of Laura.

Big west jump though

Yep. Ridge looks a little more stout.

Ugh.

[Scott747]

Um. Damn.

[Texashawk]

Euro quite a bit stronger and farther south/west so far.

[DoctorMu]

Unless Laura turns in the next frame - she's headed straight to Freeport. CAT 3

The ridge extends into OK.

[Belmer]

Ugly run. Not quite at the coast yet, but looks awfully close to a Galveston hit.

[Texashawk]

That's the Euro through 48.

[Stormlover2020]

Man this is badd

[Texashawk]

You just want to wake people up and say something, you know? Like... "when you wake up you'll have a day to get out of a metro area of 7+ million people. Better start soon." Or something like that.

[prospects8903]

Welp that’s the worst case scenario for me in the golden triangle

[don]

0z EURO not good for the Houston/Galveston area and the Golden Triangle...

[Andrew]

ECMWF: (Moving north at this point)

[DoctorMu]

Laura moves quickly through Bolivar Island and north on the Euro.

It's going to be a long day.

[Cpv17]

Laura moves quickly through Bolivar Island and north on the Euro.

It's going to be a long day.

Looks similar to where Ike came ashore. I bet the eps will have a strong west signal this run. Probably focusing anywhere from Matagorda to High Island would be my guess.

[DoctorMu]

Laura moves quickly through Bolivar Island and north on the Euro.

It's going to be a long day.

Looks similar to where Ike came ashore.

Same path up just east of Huntsville and onto Marshall on 59.

[weatherguy425]

Keep in mind, tonight’s 00Z suite had better data (ridge sampling) in it. Also...

[Andrew]

None of the models are doing a great job forecasting the fast western movement the storm is taking. The longer this continues the more we can expect additional shifts to the west.

[Waded]

Euro may be sending a major plowing into the general Galveston area, but it is only one model of several. UKMET has actually been the best performing model in the 48hr-72h hour time frame.

The way I figure it, the storm will come or won't. Its not like I get to evacuate. At my house or the station, one way or another I'll have to be riding it out. Here comes the overtime. Yay.

Now watch the NHC shift the cone east and move the Houston metro completely of the cone. Its way they did yesterday morning when a lot of the models shifted west during the overnight hours.

[txsnowmaker]

1 am NHC Advisory and the cone appears to be unchanged: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

[Texashawk]

1 am NHC Advisory and the cone appears to be unchanged: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

They don't make forecast changes with intermediate advisories, just position updates.

[Stormlover2020]

It will be in Texas next run