August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:58 pm
djmike wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:39 pm
txsnowmaker wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:29 pm If the NHC forecast cone holds up, the Houston Metro area has definitely dodged a bullet. We’ve really been lucky here, especially considering we’ve never had to deal with a Cat 4 or 5 riding up through Freeport/Matagorda, putting the city on the worst side of it.
Unfortunately me in Beaumont hasnt dodged that bullet and any further west, I will be in the eye. AGAIN!! Just got back from doing last minute errands and preps and its a madhouse out there. Lines for gas. Now limiting how many customers in stores. Issuing out water, gas can, generators. Traffic on I-10 is at a stand still here. Reminds me of the chaos before rita and the doom and gloom before Ike. Currently not a good feeling. With Harvey/Imelda PTSD, My nerves are already shot. Today we are looking around thinking enjoy the electricity as much as possible. Cook a good meal. Enjoy the luxuries cause it about to all come to an abrupt end. Praying no more shifts west. Went through eye of Rita and Ike. Not fun!!
Glad we left this morning, and I feel your pain. I'm in Lakeway at in laws and I'm researching property as we speak. I'm SO tired of living year to year i S.E. Tx.....it's just a different place now....just not worth it.
Ah, Lakeway, good, common sense, citizenry... unlike most urban areas in 2020.

As for Laura, I still have a hunch the models are undergoing the ridging in the SE.
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sau27
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18z HMON with a very sheared storm moving almost due north towards landfall central LA. I have to believe this is due to it forecasting a weaker storm.
txsnowmaker
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Here’s part of what Dr. Siebert just said on Fox 26:

“There are some clues that the atmosphere is giving us...so just like what’s going on right now in the atmosphere, this storm is going to follow that same pattern. So that gives us some clues as to why we think it’s going to take that right hand turn and possibly move a little bit more to the east and not to the west.”
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Texaspirate11
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txsnowmaker wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:07 pm Here’s part of what Dr. Siebert just said on Fox 26:

“There are some clues that the atmosphere is giving us...so just like what’s going on right now in the atmosphere, this storm is going to follow that same pattern. So that gives us some clues as to why we think it’s going to take that right hand turn and possibly move a little bit more to the east and not to the west.”
i like that - i've just been put under a voluntary evacuation notice.
I'm still on to Sw la hit.
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Scott747
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HWRF is coming in a little further w as it nears landfall. Waiting for a sharper turn.
Scott747
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Turn isn't as sharp yet. May come in closer to the border of even on the Texas side.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:00 pm
snowman65 wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:58 pm
djmike wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:39 pm
Unfortunately me in Beaumont hasnt dodged that bullet and any further west, I will be in the eye. AGAIN!! Just got back from doing last minute errands and preps and its a madhouse out there. Lines for gas. Now limiting how many customers in stores. Issuing out water, gas can, generators. Traffic on I-10 is at a stand still here. Reminds me of the chaos before rita and the doom and gloom before Ike. Currently not a good feeling. With Harvey/Imelda PTSD, My nerves are already shot. Today we are looking around thinking enjoy the electricity as much as possible. Cook a good meal. Enjoy the luxuries cause it about to all come to an abrupt end. Praying no more shifts west. Went through eye of Rita and Ike. Not fun!!
Glad we left this morning, and I feel your pain. I'm in Lakeway at in laws and I'm researching property as we speak. I'm SO tired of living year to year i S.E. Tx.....it's just a different place now....just not worth it.
Ah, Lakeway, good, common sense, citizenry... unlike most urban areas in 2020.

As for Laura, I still have a hunch the models are undergoing the ridging in the SE.

Fewer tornadoes, hurricanes, 500 year floods every 3 years. That would work!

We were inundated in 1994 by 18 inches of rain in 18 hours, not long after we moved to College Station. In 2008 we moved to a house where the land slopes and drains away from the house - on all sides!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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College Station is growing too fast. Houston jams are flocking there. I miss the College Station When I was in school at TAMU.

I thought about moving there a decade ago, but glad I didn’t. Sporting events will suffice.
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Andrew
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Scott747 wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:36 pm Turn isn't as sharp yet. May come in closer to the border of even on the Texas side.
That is going to be the scariest part of this system in my eyes is when that WNW/NW movement changes to a NNW/N movement.
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djmike
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Ok. Who thinks things will shift east for the night like past two nights? Possible or are we getting a good consensus for SWLA?
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Scott747
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HWRF comes in right at the border. Sub 930. While trivial and obsessing over the small changes. Another shift to the w and it begins to bring areas a little further down the coast in play. Either way it's a rough run for the Golden triangle.
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djmike
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Scott747 wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:43 pm HWRF comes in right at the border. Sub 930. While trivial and obsessing over the small changes. Another shift to the w and it begins to bring areas a little further down the coast in play. Either way it's a rough run for the Golden triangle.
I didnt wanna hear that. :-(
Mike
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Scott747
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Andrew wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:42 pm
Scott747 wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:36 pm Turn isn't as sharp yet. May come in closer to the border of even on the Texas side.
That is going to be the scariest part of this system in my eyes is when that WNW/NW movement changes to a NNW/N movement.
Yep. Sitting there staring at a potential major as it's plowing straight at you and waiting for the turn.
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Scott747 wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:43 pm HWRF comes in right at the border. Sub 930. While trivial and obsessing over the small changes. Another shift to the w and it begins to bring areas a little further down the coast in play. Either way it's a rough run for the Golden triangle.
Attached. Too close to the Metro for ANY comfort. 😬
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Scott747
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18z euro ensembles should be out soon.
weatherguy425
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Scott747 wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:51 pm 18z euro ensembles should be out soon.
Have access to the op? ;)
biffb816
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I just spent a bunch of money on generators, so I'm pretty sure it's going to Louisiana now. You guys can thank me later.
prospects8903
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Looking more like Orange Tx is going to hit hard
Kingwood36
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Based on the runs it looks like the tx/la border is looking like the safe bet
AtascocitaWX
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So what is the High ridge looking like? Is it strong ?
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