July 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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LOL. Did I miss something?
biggerbyte
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No, trust me, you didn't. Hopefully the moderators will shut down the rude and nasty before it hits hyper velocity.
tropiKal
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In all fairness, it was entirely civil on my end. I'm not sure how that fuss even came about.
Last edited by tropiKal on Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
tropiKal
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:55 pm It would require, what, about 15 sec of Googling to begin to find the answer re: our sub-tropical ridge, troll?

https://wxshift.com/news/blog/understan ... er-drivers

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/san-an ... s-texas-sa

https://marfapublicradio.org/blog/natur ... ts%20edges.
I understand how the ridge works - that's not my point.

I'm saying that there's indeed a disconnect with regards to the areas of Texas that dry out in summer (and the extent at which they do so) relative to where the strongest ridging tends to be. It's especially egregious with South Texas coastal areas - look at how dry those areas like Brownsville/Corpus/etc tend remain with gfs summer rainfall forecasts, even when far away from any strong ridging.
Cromagnum
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All that futurecast rain they showed on the news for this morning sure didn't pan out...
txbear
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Reading the HGX discussion from this morning, all I see is "Death Ridge". Because I tend to be bit bitter about prolonged summer heat/humidity smackdown, call me skeptical about rain relief today/tomorrow. With the notable exception of you lucky folks to the north and east. The Death Ridge is an inevitable part of any Texas summer (comes with the territory), but really hoping we don't see a repeat of the summer of a certain year that shall remain unspoken.

Wish srain could package up some of that Blue Mountain greatness (I'd also take the Cascades, Rockies) and overnight it our way.
tropiKal
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Meanwhile, the 12z GFS ends with a 594dm ridge right over the Eastern US, and the model still predicts rain for them. That's why I don't think the "death ridge" quite explains whatever dryness occurs in Texas - there must be other factors at play.
Cromagnum
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Oh hey look up in the sky. Its a bird. Its a plane. Oh no, wait, its the sun, and not a drop of rain to be seen.
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Ptarmigan
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txbear wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:40 am Reading the HGX discussion from this morning, all I see is "Death Ridge". Because I tend to be bit bitter about prolonged summer heat/humidity smackdown, call me skeptical about rain relief today/tomorrow. With the notable exception of you lucky folks to the north and east. The Death Ridge is an inevitable part of any Texas summer (comes with the territory), but really hoping we don't see a repeat of the summer of a certain year that shall remain unspoken.

Wish srain could package up some of that Blue Mountain greatness (I'd also take the Cascades, Rockies) and overnight it our way.
In some summers, the ridge is stronger or weaker than others. So many factors come to play in terms of strength.
txbear
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Ptarmigan wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:32 pm In some summers, the ridge is stronger or weaker than others. So many factors come to play in terms of strength.
No doubt about that! Hopefully all of those variables correlate into a ridge that ebbs and flows, allowing for summer to be summer, but also reasonable opportunities for rainfall. Still wishing for some of that mountain pleasantness though 😉
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jasons2k
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A few days ago, the chance of rain for me tomorrow (Tuesday) was 80% from the NWS. Then it was 70%. Then, the last two days they had it at 60%. Now, the forecast for tomorrow has me down to 50%.
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Katdaddy
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Another SE TX day of heat and humidity. So much for any scattered showers yesterday. Summer continues onward.
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tropiKal
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In some summers, the ridge is stronger or weaker than others. So many factors come to play in terms of strength.
It's probably the persistent East Coast mid-latitude troughing. From what I've seen for the recent decade, that feature has been more present in summer when it's not supposed to be. That diverts moisture away from Texas/Eastern Mexico, leading to more potent dry spells that wouldn't have happened otherwise (especially 2011 and 2015).
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djmike
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Rain! Heavy too in Beaumont.
I think I can hear my roof sizzling...lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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DoctorMu
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A nice line forming around Marlin. Hope it reaches us. The spigot turns off tomorrow.
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jasons2k
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I have a sinking feeling today I will get nothing, just like my rain chances have been sinking for days.

There was a blowup along 290 headed this way, but it quickly fizzled. Will probably be the story of the day.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:10 pm I have a sinking feeling today I will get nothing, just like my rain chances have been sinking for days.

There was a blowup along 290 headed this way, but it quickly fizzled. Will probably be the story of the day.
It's redefining broken line(s) of showers. Seems to be slipping to the east just north of us.
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jasons2k
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I’m just 5-10 miles too far south to get anything. Jogging distance - after waiting for days for today to get here. Maybe another degree or two of heating will pop things a little further this way - we’ll see but not betting on it.
Cromagnum
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Nothing down here. The scorch gets here in a couple days too.
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DoctorMu
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The tail end of the line licked us. 0.45 inches.

Hunkering down now for nearly 2 months of scorch.

The 10 day Euro is laughing at us.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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