July 2020
the trouble train??
- Attachments
-
Southside catching it again today
Friendswood getting pounded.
The western Gulf looks interesting. Huge blowup of convection out there.
Just looking at this.
Seabreeze is giving us a maybe.
Hoping to avoid Lucy and the football.
We've just had a tenth or two of rain every other day. Could be worse, but this afternoon is our best opportunity possibly for awhile.
Hoping to avoid Lucy and the football.
We've just had a tenth or two of rain every other day. Could be worse, but this afternoon is our best opportunity possibly for awhile.
Warning just went up for the BCS. Hopefully Dr. Mu doesn’t get anything too severe up there.
Thats a big blob in the western gulf.
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Hey guys I need yalls expert weather advice. You think I would be able to dodge 92L cause I am gonna fly to ft Lauderdale on Saturday evening.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 291118
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020
.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings over NW TAF sites will mix out early this morning
with generally VFR conditions for the rest of the day. Daytime
heating will trigger scattered showers and storms with development
expected between 16-19z near the coast and then moving inland.
Precip will wane around 00z with skies clearing. A mix of MVFR/VFR
cigs will develop after 09z, mainly affecting NW TAF sites. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020/
SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Radar is quiet this morning with generally clear skies to start
the day. High pressure is over the eastern Gulf with lower
pressure over West Texas. PW values remain on the high side and
satellite derived values remain between 2.00 and 2.20 inches.
Daytime heating is expected to foster scattered showers and
thunderstorms later today. Convective temperatures are warmer
today than yesterday so not expecting much development this
morning. Convective temperatures today are between 89 and 92
degrees. Fcst soundings show some weak capping in the 850-700 mb
layer as well. Precipitation coverage today will be considerably
less than yesterday but scattered activity should increase in
coverage around noon. High temperatures will also be warmer than
yesterday as 850 temps warm a bit and there will be more sunshine
and precip will start later. MaxT values will warm into the lower
and middle 90`s areawide.
Any remaining showers will end around sunset and some drier air
will move into the region. PW values will fall to between 1.60 and
1.80 inches by Thursday morning. The moisture profile on Thursday
looks dry and most of the area will remain dry. Will carry slight
chance for showers along the coast/bay in case a few showers pop
up along the sea breeze. MaxT values will warm into the lower 90`s
coast, mid 90`s central and upper 90`s far west. Low level
moisture has increased due to recent rains and coupled with sfc
temps in the mid 90`s will yield heat index values between 102-106
degrees. 43
LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
We`ll begin the long term period with subtle chances of rain as the
upper level high pressure shifts east into Southeast CONUS in
response to an upper level trough expanding south and eastward
across the Great Plains (somewhat meandering along this general area
through Saturday). Along the surface, a cold frontal boundary will
move into Northern TX and result in an unsettled weather pattern for
portions of OK and Northern/Central TX. As the day progresses
Friday, local temperatures will be rising into the mid to upper 90s
with storms developing to our north possibly making their way into
the northern sectors of Southeast TX. According to the latest model
guidance, these storms could be entering the northern counties
Friday afternoon and are expected to expand southward across the
rest of the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Another upper level
trough over the Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada region will dig
south into the north central CONUS region late Friday into Saturday.
This feature will gradually merge into the stagnant trough over the
weekend, somewhat broadening/strengthening it. Locally, drier air
behind the line of Friday and Saturday`s storms will help limit rain
development over our local area on Sunday. Temperatures during the
weekend will also be a few degrees lower, but should remain in the
90s. Highs on Monday are expected bounce back to the mid to upper
90s.
On Monday, a weak shortwave embedded within the main trough will
swing southeastward into Northern TX and could lead to unsettled
weather pattern over Northern and Central TX. Models once again
bring this activity southward, reaching the northern portions of
Southeast TX sometime late Monday afternoon into Tuesday. If this
scenario does play out, temperatures could be slightly cooler than
what the forecast currently has. There are some inconsistencies
present between the models, therefore, only added low chance of PoPs
and kept a similar temperature trend as the previous forecast. 24
MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern Gulf and lower pressures over West
Texas will maintain a light to moderate onshore flow through
early Friday. the sfc high near FL will shift west and be located
over the central Gulf by Friday. The pressure gradient will relax
and lighter winds expected late Thursday into Friday. A weak cool
front/outflow boundary will approach the area Friday night. The
boundary is expected to stall inland but sfc winds may veer to the
W-SW in response to this feature and a slight northward position
of the sfc high. A weak surface high will develop over the western
Gulf on Sunday and remain over the western Gulf through early
next week. A light flow is expected with a weak land breeze during
the late night/early morning and a weak sea breeze in the
afternoon/early evening.
Water levels are running 1.0 - 1.2 feet higher than normal and
levels could reach 3.2 feet at times of high tide Thursday
through Saturday. No significant impacts are expected. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 77 96 77 98 / 20 20 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 93 78 95 77 95 / 40 40 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 83 91 / 30 30 10 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99
FXUS64 KHGX 291118
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020
.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings over NW TAF sites will mix out early this morning
with generally VFR conditions for the rest of the day. Daytime
heating will trigger scattered showers and storms with development
expected between 16-19z near the coast and then moving inland.
Precip will wane around 00z with skies clearing. A mix of MVFR/VFR
cigs will develop after 09z, mainly affecting NW TAF sites. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020/
SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Radar is quiet this morning with generally clear skies to start
the day. High pressure is over the eastern Gulf with lower
pressure over West Texas. PW values remain on the high side and
satellite derived values remain between 2.00 and 2.20 inches.
Daytime heating is expected to foster scattered showers and
thunderstorms later today. Convective temperatures are warmer
today than yesterday so not expecting much development this
morning. Convective temperatures today are between 89 and 92
degrees. Fcst soundings show some weak capping in the 850-700 mb
layer as well. Precipitation coverage today will be considerably
less than yesterday but scattered activity should increase in
coverage around noon. High temperatures will also be warmer than
yesterday as 850 temps warm a bit and there will be more sunshine
and precip will start later. MaxT values will warm into the lower
and middle 90`s areawide.
Any remaining showers will end around sunset and some drier air
will move into the region. PW values will fall to between 1.60 and
1.80 inches by Thursday morning. The moisture profile on Thursday
looks dry and most of the area will remain dry. Will carry slight
chance for showers along the coast/bay in case a few showers pop
up along the sea breeze. MaxT values will warm into the lower 90`s
coast, mid 90`s central and upper 90`s far west. Low level
moisture has increased due to recent rains and coupled with sfc
temps in the mid 90`s will yield heat index values between 102-106
degrees. 43
LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
We`ll begin the long term period with subtle chances of rain as the
upper level high pressure shifts east into Southeast CONUS in
response to an upper level trough expanding south and eastward
across the Great Plains (somewhat meandering along this general area
through Saturday). Along the surface, a cold frontal boundary will
move into Northern TX and result in an unsettled weather pattern for
portions of OK and Northern/Central TX. As the day progresses
Friday, local temperatures will be rising into the mid to upper 90s
with storms developing to our north possibly making their way into
the northern sectors of Southeast TX. According to the latest model
guidance, these storms could be entering the northern counties
Friday afternoon and are expected to expand southward across the
rest of the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Another upper level
trough over the Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada region will dig
south into the north central CONUS region late Friday into Saturday.
This feature will gradually merge into the stagnant trough over the
weekend, somewhat broadening/strengthening it. Locally, drier air
behind the line of Friday and Saturday`s storms will help limit rain
development over our local area on Sunday. Temperatures during the
weekend will also be a few degrees lower, but should remain in the
90s. Highs on Monday are expected bounce back to the mid to upper
90s.
On Monday, a weak shortwave embedded within the main trough will
swing southeastward into Northern TX and could lead to unsettled
weather pattern over Northern and Central TX. Models once again
bring this activity southward, reaching the northern portions of
Southeast TX sometime late Monday afternoon into Tuesday. If this
scenario does play out, temperatures could be slightly cooler than
what the forecast currently has. There are some inconsistencies
present between the models, therefore, only added low chance of PoPs
and kept a similar temperature trend as the previous forecast. 24
MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern Gulf and lower pressures over West
Texas will maintain a light to moderate onshore flow through
early Friday. the sfc high near FL will shift west and be located
over the central Gulf by Friday. The pressure gradient will relax
and lighter winds expected late Thursday into Friday. A weak cool
front/outflow boundary will approach the area Friday night. The
boundary is expected to stall inland but sfc winds may veer to the
W-SW in response to this feature and a slight northward position
of the sfc high. A weak surface high will develop over the western
Gulf on Sunday and remain over the western Gulf through early
next week. A light flow is expected with a weak land breeze during
the late night/early morning and a weak sea breeze in the
afternoon/early evening.
Water levels are running 1.0 - 1.2 feet higher than normal and
levels could reach 3.2 feet at times of high tide Thursday
through Saturday. No significant impacts are expected. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 77 96 77 98 / 20 20 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 93 78 95 77 95 / 40 40 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 83 91 / 30 30 10 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99
Lots of rain.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:15 pm Hey guys I need yalls expert weather advice. You think I would be able to dodge 92L cause I am gonna fly to ft Lauderdale on Saturday evening.
We’re getting our second round of heavy rain here at my job in Rosenberg right now. Been watching the radar and haven’t had anything but light rain at my house in Wharton today.
.27” here so far today. My digital gauge is definitely busted. It keep holding steady at .02” with light rain under calm winds - like the bucket inside just won’t tip.
I was lucky enough to get a good downpour that gave me another inch. 
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1022
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
I've gotten 1/4" out of all the rain that's been around going back to last Friday. Literally feel like I'm the middle of a donut.
Wow, that’s even worse luck than Jason. That’s really bad!redneckweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:33 pm I've gotten 1/4" out of all the rain that's been around going back to last Friday. Literally feel like I'm the middle of a donut.