July 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Re: July 2020

Post by tireman4 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:47 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VCSH and VCTS will continue for IAH northward through the next
couple of hours before the boundary that brought the active
weather overnight moves southward. HOU and SGR will continue to
see VCTS through the late morning, and LBX and GLS will have a
chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day. VFR
conditions and light northerly winds are expected to develop
behind the boundary and continue through the weekend.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...

The northwestern portions of the area last night saw slow moving
thunderstorms that produced heavy rainfall - portions of eastern
Washington County had radar estimated totals of up to 7 inches.
This activity is focused out ahead of a slow moving boundary.
PWATS are near 2 inches with long skinny CAPE profiles of
1500-2500 J/kg, so these storms have been proficient rain makers.
Because of this, the threat of urban and small stream flooding
will be possible for the region through this afternoon where ever
the heavier rain sets up. The activity is expected to slowly
expand towards the coast through the morning (emphasis on the
slowly). While some CAM guidance (ARW and NMM) have lingering
strong storms further inland through the day, they have not had
the best handle on the overnight convection and they may be a bit
too slow with the boundary progression. The HRRR and TT-WRF have
most of the activity over by the mid afternoon, which is what the
forecast has leaned toward - although storms may linger through
into the evening along the immediate coast and over the Gulf
waters.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 90s
across most of the area (with BCS area approaching 100 degrees)
and in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Overnight lows
will remain mid to upper 70s.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

A broad long wave trough over the Great Lakes will extend into Texas
Sunday night and Monday. A weak upper level disturbance will slide
into the state on Monday and could bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the northern half of the area on Monday
afternoon. At the surface, a weak cold front will move into North
Texas and slowly move toward SE TX pulling up stationary over the
area (probably north of I-10). The front coupled with daytime
heating could serve as a focus for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon. Fcst soundings show some weak
capping near 850 mb with convective temperatures in the mid/upper
90`s.

The upper level trough begins to shift east on Tuesday as an upper
level ridge over the southern Rockies amplifies and expands into
West Texas. The upper ridge will be centered over West Texas by
Thursday morning but 500 mb heights only build to around 592 dm. The
center of the ridge looks to stay just far enough west to allow
allow for a weak sea breeze each afternoon. Fcst soundings show some
weak capping at 850 mb. Convective temps are very close to fcst high
temperature values so there will be a slight chance of aftn
shra/tsra Wed-Fri. The ridge will bring minimally higher heights but
they don`t support a huge warm up. Will keep MaxT values in the
mid/upper 90`s. Drier air aloft will mix to the surface each
afternoon so heat index values look modest rising to between 98-103
degrees each afternoon. Looking ahead to next weekend, a weak
inverted upper trough will move west across the Gulf and this
feature will bring a slight chance of showers and storms back to the
region Sat/Sun. 43


.MARINE...


A boundary will push off the coast through the day today bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms with activity lingering through
the evening. High pressure builds into the region on Sunday and will
last through the week resulting in light onshore flow and low seas.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 96 73 98 74 100 / 10 0 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 94 77 96 75 97 / 50 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 92 82 92 / 70 10 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

BlueJay
Posts: 874
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
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Re: July 2020

Post by BlueJay » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:42 am

Good bye July.
First you were dry.
And you made us fret.
Then you made us wet.
You bet.

Now on to August 2020...

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