It's definitely some time out. Though it should be linked with climatology, especially given the developing La Nina (which relocates the subtropical ridge farther north).
July 2020
I had a high of 101. Currently sitting at 100, dewpoint almost 80 and a heat index of 121.
It’s kinda amusing reading the NWS discussions that areas may finally hit 100 degrees. I already have 3 or 4 times now this summer.
It’s kinda amusing reading the NWS discussions that areas may finally hit 100 degrees. I already have 3 or 4 times now this summer.
Haha. And Im tired of it already. Today was brutal. 99 for Beaumont with a heat index of 110. Might reach our first 100 tomorrow here in the triangle. If you’ve got a pool, you are lucky folks and I am jealous as all get out. Stay hydrated my friends.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Obligatory Summer Sucks post. Back to our mind numbing program of heat and boredom.
Team #NeverSummer
Any cold fronts on the horizon? Asking for a friend....
It's nearly 1 am and the heat index is 93°.
No wonder we're driven to wishcasting by early August for tropical systems, a front (haha!)
No wonder we're driven to wishcasting by early August for tropical systems, a front (haha!)
Been a rough weekend. My electric and water bills both gonna suck.
This is one of the most painfully hot July’s I’ve ever witnessed in 40yrs of life.....
Pretty close. Check out today’s update on Space City Weather. We just set a record for warm minimums over a seven day period. Pretty impressive.
https://spacecityweather.com/houston-da ... more-16020
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Has the heat gotten to the folks at HGX? Funny write up this morning..
000
FXUS64 KHGX 131125
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020
AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR conditions due to low clouds and fog will gradually
lift/dissipate through mid-morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the period. Southwest winds will transition to the
south by mid-afternoon along with some gusty winds, mainly at KLBX
and KGLS terminals.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020/
DISCUSSION...
Hey, y`all heard that it`s even hotter than July usually gets
around here? And if you haven`t, I bet it`s real cool living under
that rock, may I join you? If you were hoping for this forecast
to discuss something other than the unseasonable heat, you are not
really going to get it. If anything, there are some signs in the
model guidance that our guarded hopes of small improvement in
conditions by the end of the week will take even longer to
develop.
In the search for silver linings though, we`re still fairly
confident that things will still edge back towards more typical
July weather (albeit slower than we may have thought 24 hours
ago). And with that, we should even see a handful of afternoon
showers and storms crop up very late this week or early next week.
Don`t go looking for any widespread soakers, just a typical
smattering of your quick-hitting, garden-variety showers and
storms in the afternoon. There`s still a lot of uncertainty in
exactly how and when this transition happens (is this enough
change to call it a transition? I`m not sure), but it still
appears that it will ultimately happen. We just have to be patient
enough.
SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday]...
Deja vu? Well, it feels like it because the heat remains the main
weather story. Ridge of high pressure over the southwest CONUS
continues to dominate the region, promoting dry and very warm
conditions. As of 07Z Monday, some areas of fog/low clouds are
developing, mainly west of I-45 in response to light winds and low-
level moisture. Fog/clouds are expected to dissipate by early to mid-
morning.
With 850 hPa temperatures ranging in the mid 20s Celsius this
afternoon, surface high temperatures will climb into the upper 90s
to 100 degrees. The end result will once again be heat indices
between 105 and 110 degrees. It will feel slightly hotter across our
western counties and far northeastern counties (towards the
Pineywoods area), where the lowest dewpoints/RH reside. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for the entire CWA from 11 AM to 8PM.
The amplified ridge aloft slightly weakens and drifts eastward into
western Texas tomorrow. No major changes are expected other than
another hot day. Temperatures will be one or two degrees cooler than
previous days; however, highs are expected to range in the upper
90s, with a few locations possibly hitting the triple digits. Heat
headlines will likely be needed. Winds may become breezy by late
afternoon/early evening. It will be breezier along the coast; thus
this may relief temperatures a bit.
LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...
The big struggle in the forecast discussion for the long term
tonight is...finding something to say that hasn`t already been
beaten to death the last several days. Very little has changed in
the big picture - the upper ridge that has dominated the last
several days from the Four Corners is still expected to weaken
some while it drifts east/northeast to the north of the region. On
the south side of this ridge, we will likely see small spits of
vorticity riding around the edge of the ridge that will eventually
give us some slight chances at rain at the end of the week.
There are, however, some small nuances that might have some
noticeable impact on weather in the area for this extended part of
the forecast...and if you`ve been waiting for the way things have
been to end, you`re not going to like it very much. In short, some
of the guidance *cough* Euro *cough* is not weakening the ridge
as much as it had been when bringing it north of our area late in
the week. Instead of a 594ish ridge, we`re looking at a 596ish
feature instead. It`s a subtle difference, but it could be enough
to slow down any slight cooling we`ve been looking forward to
even MORE. This drags chances for widespread 105+ heat index and a
smattering of 100+ air temps even deeper into this week before we
back down from that ever so slightly (so slightly!). It would
also increase subsidence in the synoptic environment, and so while
there is still surprisingly strong consensus in a weak inverted
trough riding in from the Gulf on Friday, the chances for rain
look even less impressive than they did before...and they didn`t
really look that great before.
As a result, I`ve gone ahead and stayed dry on Thursday, and
pushed off the earliest chance for any isolated showers/storms to
Friday. And I`m telling you, if things evolve towards the Euro
solution, even that isn`t gonna happen.
Eventually...EVENTUALLY...with such consistent guidance in having
small shortwaves work their way along the bottom of the
ridge...and with a consistent signal for at least some light
precip, I`ve got to think we manage at least a handful of isolated
showers in the afternoon at some point late this week. I`m just
not quite sure exactly how long we`re going to have to wait for
it. Taking my deterministic forecast literally, Monday looks like
the day. But that far out with such subtle features, that`s
probably not the best way to think about it. I`d much rather frame
it as opening the window for some showers/storms to pop up Friday
afternoon at the earliest, and continuing into early next week.
MARINE...
High pressure still prevails for the next several days. The
pressure gradient should tighten enough to bring southwest winds
at 10-15kts nearshore with 1-3ft seas and Offshore winds will be
higher at times with seas 2-4ft. This will keep us up near the
caution threshold, and may become strong enough to force a SCEC at
times throughout the week. In keeping with daily cycles, the bulk
of the Gulf waters will tend to see its strongest winds overnight.
Afternoon winds will be higher along the coast and in the bays.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 76 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 100 79 99 79 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 91 83 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...
Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...
Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...
Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...05
MARINE...Luchs
000
FXUS64 KHGX 131125
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020
AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR conditions due to low clouds and fog will gradually
lift/dissipate through mid-morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the period. Southwest winds will transition to the
south by mid-afternoon along with some gusty winds, mainly at KLBX
and KGLS terminals.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020/
DISCUSSION...
Hey, y`all heard that it`s even hotter than July usually gets
around here? And if you haven`t, I bet it`s real cool living under
that rock, may I join you? If you were hoping for this forecast
to discuss something other than the unseasonable heat, you are not
really going to get it. If anything, there are some signs in the
model guidance that our guarded hopes of small improvement in
conditions by the end of the week will take even longer to
develop.
In the search for silver linings though, we`re still fairly
confident that things will still edge back towards more typical
July weather (albeit slower than we may have thought 24 hours
ago). And with that, we should even see a handful of afternoon
showers and storms crop up very late this week or early next week.
Don`t go looking for any widespread soakers, just a typical
smattering of your quick-hitting, garden-variety showers and
storms in the afternoon. There`s still a lot of uncertainty in
exactly how and when this transition happens (is this enough
change to call it a transition? I`m not sure), but it still
appears that it will ultimately happen. We just have to be patient
enough.
SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday]...
Deja vu? Well, it feels like it because the heat remains the main
weather story. Ridge of high pressure over the southwest CONUS
continues to dominate the region, promoting dry and very warm
conditions. As of 07Z Monday, some areas of fog/low clouds are
developing, mainly west of I-45 in response to light winds and low-
level moisture. Fog/clouds are expected to dissipate by early to mid-
morning.
With 850 hPa temperatures ranging in the mid 20s Celsius this
afternoon, surface high temperatures will climb into the upper 90s
to 100 degrees. The end result will once again be heat indices
between 105 and 110 degrees. It will feel slightly hotter across our
western counties and far northeastern counties (towards the
Pineywoods area), where the lowest dewpoints/RH reside. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for the entire CWA from 11 AM to 8PM.
The amplified ridge aloft slightly weakens and drifts eastward into
western Texas tomorrow. No major changes are expected other than
another hot day. Temperatures will be one or two degrees cooler than
previous days; however, highs are expected to range in the upper
90s, with a few locations possibly hitting the triple digits. Heat
headlines will likely be needed. Winds may become breezy by late
afternoon/early evening. It will be breezier along the coast; thus
this may relief temperatures a bit.
LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...
The big struggle in the forecast discussion for the long term
tonight is...finding something to say that hasn`t already been
beaten to death the last several days. Very little has changed in
the big picture - the upper ridge that has dominated the last
several days from the Four Corners is still expected to weaken
some while it drifts east/northeast to the north of the region. On
the south side of this ridge, we will likely see small spits of
vorticity riding around the edge of the ridge that will eventually
give us some slight chances at rain at the end of the week.
There are, however, some small nuances that might have some
noticeable impact on weather in the area for this extended part of
the forecast...and if you`ve been waiting for the way things have
been to end, you`re not going to like it very much. In short, some
of the guidance *cough* Euro *cough* is not weakening the ridge
as much as it had been when bringing it north of our area late in
the week. Instead of a 594ish ridge, we`re looking at a 596ish
feature instead. It`s a subtle difference, but it could be enough
to slow down any slight cooling we`ve been looking forward to
even MORE. This drags chances for widespread 105+ heat index and a
smattering of 100+ air temps even deeper into this week before we
back down from that ever so slightly (so slightly!). It would
also increase subsidence in the synoptic environment, and so while
there is still surprisingly strong consensus in a weak inverted
trough riding in from the Gulf on Friday, the chances for rain
look even less impressive than they did before...and they didn`t
really look that great before.
As a result, I`ve gone ahead and stayed dry on Thursday, and
pushed off the earliest chance for any isolated showers/storms to
Friday. And I`m telling you, if things evolve towards the Euro
solution, even that isn`t gonna happen.
Eventually...EVENTUALLY...with such consistent guidance in having
small shortwaves work their way along the bottom of the
ridge...and with a consistent signal for at least some light
precip, I`ve got to think we manage at least a handful of isolated
showers in the afternoon at some point late this week. I`m just
not quite sure exactly how long we`re going to have to wait for
it. Taking my deterministic forecast literally, Monday looks like
the day. But that far out with such subtle features, that`s
probably not the best way to think about it. I`d much rather frame
it as opening the window for some showers/storms to pop up Friday
afternoon at the earliest, and continuing into early next week.
MARINE...
High pressure still prevails for the next several days. The
pressure gradient should tighten enough to bring southwest winds
at 10-15kts nearshore with 1-3ft seas and Offshore winds will be
higher at times with seas 2-4ft. This will keep us up near the
caution threshold, and may become strong enough to force a SCEC at
times throughout the week. In keeping with daily cycles, the bulk
of the Gulf waters will tend to see its strongest winds overnight.
Afternoon winds will be higher along the coast and in the bays.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 76 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 100 79 99 79 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 91 83 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...
Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...
Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...
Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...05
MARINE...Luchs
So basically, it's not going to rain at all this week and there isn't really any confidence that it will next week either.
And it’s hot in mid-July, the dog days of summer, yet it’s “unseasonable heat” 
...
...