July 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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snowman65
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djmike wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:39 pm 1” rain and slowing down now in Beaumont. Ill take it.
We got a good surprise rainfall here in Orange...still coming down lightly
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DoctorMu
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snowman65 wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:25 pm
djmike wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:39 pm 1” rain and slowing down now in Beaumont. Ill take it.
We got a good surprise rainfall here in Orange...still coming down lightly
We had a nice outflow breeze freshen from those storms. No rain from it for us, but the temperature dropped 15°F, and the dewpoint sank into the mid 60s, It made for a pleasant evening.
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DoctorMu
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tropiKal wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:48 pm
Rip76 wrote: Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:23 pm I bet that area of weather coming from the east dies out before it gets to Houston.
It defies logic how dry Texas is during summer relative to both the humidity seen across the state during summer, as well as how much rain places JUST to the east receive.
Thanks to the high pressure ridge at the mid to upper levels. The dreaded Death Ridge.

After today, we'll see a respite for a few days...but it won't last.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Friday gave us our first signs of transitioning to a more active
weather pattern as a handful of thunderstorms scraped across the
far eastern parts of the area. We may see some isolated to
scattered activity again today, though heat will again be the
driving weather story this afternoon. Expect another day of above
normal temperatures and a heat index maxing out in triple digits.
Some of the hottest spots may even threaten the heat advisory
threshold.

Fortunately, we`ll begin to slowly back down from that heat
to...well...more seasonable heat levels, which is still rather
hot and could still be dangerous for those who spend long
stretches outdoors. You know it`s summertime in Southeast Texas
when the break from the heat means a peak heat index that might
not make it to 100 degrees rather than definitely making it to 100
degrees. The price of this "respite" is more shower and
thunderstorm activity, which we should see ramp up early next
week, and persist through at least mid-week. By that time, we`ll
see a ridge return and whittle down rain chances and slowly allow
temperatures to drift upwards again.


SHORT TERM [Through Sunday]...

As we mark our nation`s 244th birthday, we enter into what is
shaping up be one of the hottest days of the year thus far across SE
Texas, with the seasonably warm and humid conditions of late
continuing as upper ridging continues to maintain itself over the
central CONUS.
There will be no shortage of low-level moisture to
keep heat indicies high once again this afternoon,
as south to
southwest flow continues to transport moist Gulf air to the region.
With global models in good agreement showing an uptick in surface PW
values to near 2.0 in by this afternoon in areas east of I-45,
apparent temperatures will approach (but likely not reach) the
advisory threshold of 108. Given the expected conditions, it will be
imperative to take proper heat safety precautions if you have any
outdoor plans today. Remember to stay hydrated by drinking plenty of
water, apply sunscreen regularly, and avoid strenuous activity during
the daytime hours.

With the aforementioned moisture in place and late afternoon
convective temperatures of around 95-97 well within reach, another
round of thunderstorms is poised to develop around the Arklatex
region before sunset and push southward.
While the bulk of activity
looks to remain to our east again, recent runs of the HRRR, TTU-WRF,
and WRF-ARW have indicated the potential for storm development
further into the northeastern zones compared to yesterday. While the
extent and magnitude of any storm development further south is
likely to hinge on the interaction of any developing convection with
mesoscale boundaries, have maintained 30-50% PoPs across the metro
and east of I-45 given the favorable environmental conditions.


Yet another hot and humid day is in store across the area on Sunday
to close out the holiday weekend, with afternoon highs expected to
once again break into the upper 90s and heat indices reaching the
mid 100s. While a slight "cooling" trend looks likely heading into
the work week (see Long Term section below), onshore winds and
thereby the 70s dew points won`t be going away anytime soon and
proper heat safety precautions should still be taken.

LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

By Sunday night, the western ridge aloft is expected to retreat
back towards the Pacific Coast
, and we`ll come more under the
influence of the retrograding upper trough. This will allow the
shower and thunderstorm development that has been happening to our
east to slowly expand across our area through the early part of
next week, particularly as precipitable water values are progged
to rise to around or above two inches for Monday and Tuesday. This
is likely why, even though the upper trough will begin pulling
away to the east on Tuesday, that rain chances are still fairly
high as late as Tuesday afternoon. Indeed, the consensus of model
guidance is the highest of the week on Tuesday. I`ve undercut that
consensus some, given the worsening environment aloft, but it`s
not *that* much worse, so I didn`t shave too much off.

Ridging aloft is back in charge as that trough moves off and
fills, so our good friend subsidence will be back to gradually
choke off rain chances and help temperatures drift back upwards
towards the mid 90s for the latter part of next week.
Along with
this, our surface pattern continues to be dominated by high
pressure over the Gulf, keeping generally southerly flow in place,
pumping in moist Gulf air. The moisture on the one hand will
likely keep the daytime heating from getting too out of
control...but it will also keep overnight temps high, and make for
a pretty high daytime heat index. Triple digit peaks in the
afternoon will probably become the norm again late in the week. I
can`t say that I`m seeing much of a signal in the guidance for a
heat index that will exceed the advisory threshold, but it`s also
probably too early to take it off the table, either.

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions overnight with light winds through tomorrow morning.
Indications for convection tomorrow afternoon starting at UTS/CXO
around 22z and potentially lasting around 03z. IAH is expecting to
have convection in the area starting at 23z until around 04z. At
this time, the exact timing of the thunderstorms is still uncertain.
Conditions are favorable for the support of thunderstorm activity
but is dependent on the initial development and if the storms
organize in the evening.

MARINE...

Calm conditions continue across the coastal waters with lighter
onshore winds and seas of around 2 feet expected through the
beginning of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms that
push southward late this afternoon and into the evening could reach
the coastal waters, and some gusty winds may occur once again as a
result. An increase in onshore winds by the middle of the week will
being seas back into the 3 to 5 foot range and potentially require
caution flags.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 75 98 76 95 / 10 20 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 97 78 96 78 93 / 10 30 20 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 93 81 92 82 89 / 10 20 20 10 30

&&
Cromagnum
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Gotta suck it up and run sprinklers all weekend. Lawn already dieing.
tropiKal
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:06 amThanks to the high pressure ridge at the mid to upper levels. The dreaded Death Ridge.

After today, we'll see a respite for a few days...but it won't last.
I don't know, it still doesn't quite make sense. Whenever I look at heights over Houston, they never really seem to get any stronger than 591dm - that should still allow for some isolated convection, at least.

On the other hand, I do think models like GFS are quite biased towards drying Texas out during summer. I know for a fact that some places in the country get loads of rain forecasted even when they are under much stronger heights than anywhere in Texas.
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Texaspirate11
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Galveston tied the long standing record high maximum temperature
of 95 set all the way back in 1875.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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DoctorMu
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tropiKal wrote: Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:32 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:06 amThanks to the high pressure ridge at the mid to upper levels. The dreaded Death Ridge.

After today, we'll see a respite for a few days...but it won't last.
I don't know, it still doesn't quite make sense. Whenever I look at heights over Houston, they never really seem to get any stronger than 591dm - that should still allow for some isolated convection, at least.

On the other hand, I do think models like GFS are quite biased towards drying Texas out during summer. I know for a fact that some places in the country get loads of rain forecasted even when they are under much stronger heights than anywhere in Texas.
This is well-documented. Houston is less affected by upper level ridging in the summer than the Brazos Valley or Waco, especially the SE side.

If you want to troll, go elsewhere.
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DoctorMu
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:33 am Galveston tied the long standing record high maximum temperature
of 95 set all the way back in 1875.
We were lucky. Just a bit of haze and cloudiness kept temps. under the century mark. 97° for the high.
tropiKal
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:12 amThis is well-documented. Houston is less affected by upper level ridging in the summer than the Brazos Valley or Waco, especially the SE side.

If you want to troll, go elsewhere.
There's no issue, I'm just following through with your point. You said that the dryness is due to "death ridging." Yet even at Brazos Valley, heights really never get too strong over summer, 591-594dm. Meanwhile, other areas of the country still get rain even with the same/stronger heights - there's an obvious disconnect on the models between the driest areas in Texas compared to where the strongest heights actually are.
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DoctorMu
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It would require, what, about 15 sec of Googling to begin to find the answer re: our sub-tropical ridge, troll?

https://wxshift.com/news/blog/understan ... er-drivers
During the summer months, a ridge promoted by the continental warm and dry air over Mexico will shift across the southern U.S. as the jet stream goes through natural undulations. The position of this ridge over the southeastern U.S. is a key factor in forecasting whether or not afternoon thunderstorms will erupt or surface energy will stay put. For coastal areas of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, slight retreat in the upper ridge can allow a simple sea breeze to become a microscale, pseudo-cold front with widespread showers and intense thunderstorms.
https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/san-an ... s-texas-sa

https://marfapublicradio.org/blog/natur ... ts%20edges.

Each summer, air uplifted at the equator descends on the U.S. Where the ridge settles, it creates conditions that are dry and intensely hot.

Typically, the ridge moves about during the summer, drawing Gulf moisture in around its edges. But it can also become locked in place over an area that’s already parched – as it did, in 2011, over Central Texas.


I'll let the mods handle this for now on.
Cromagnum
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LOL. Did I miss something?
biggerbyte
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No, trust me, you didn't. Hopefully the moderators will shut down the rude and nasty before it hits hyper velocity.
tropiKal
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In all fairness, it was entirely civil on my end. I'm not sure how that fuss even came about.
Last edited by tropiKal on Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
tropiKal
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:55 pm It would require, what, about 15 sec of Googling to begin to find the answer re: our sub-tropical ridge, troll?

https://wxshift.com/news/blog/understan ... er-drivers

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/san-an ... s-texas-sa

https://marfapublicradio.org/blog/natur ... ts%20edges.
I understand how the ridge works - that's not my point.

I'm saying that there's indeed a disconnect with regards to the areas of Texas that dry out in summer (and the extent at which they do so) relative to where the strongest ridging tends to be. It's especially egregious with South Texas coastal areas - look at how dry those areas like Brownsville/Corpus/etc tend remain with gfs summer rainfall forecasts, even when far away from any strong ridging.
Cromagnum
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All that futurecast rain they showed on the news for this morning sure didn't pan out...
txbear
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Reading the HGX discussion from this morning, all I see is "Death Ridge". Because I tend to be bit bitter about prolonged summer heat/humidity smackdown, call me skeptical about rain relief today/tomorrow. With the notable exception of you lucky folks to the north and east. The Death Ridge is an inevitable part of any Texas summer (comes with the territory), but really hoping we don't see a repeat of the summer of a certain year that shall remain unspoken.

Wish srain could package up some of that Blue Mountain greatness (I'd also take the Cascades, Rockies) and overnight it our way.
tropiKal
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Meanwhile, the 12z GFS ends with a 594dm ridge right over the Eastern US, and the model still predicts rain for them. That's why I don't think the "death ridge" quite explains whatever dryness occurs in Texas - there must be other factors at play.
Cromagnum
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Oh hey look up in the sky. Its a bird. Its a plane. Oh no, wait, its the sun, and not a drop of rain to be seen.
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Ptarmigan
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txbear wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:40 am Reading the HGX discussion from this morning, all I see is "Death Ridge". Because I tend to be bit bitter about prolonged summer heat/humidity smackdown, call me skeptical about rain relief today/tomorrow. With the notable exception of you lucky folks to the north and east. The Death Ridge is an inevitable part of any Texas summer (comes with the territory), but really hoping we don't see a repeat of the summer of a certain year that shall remain unspoken.

Wish srain could package up some of that Blue Mountain greatness (I'd also take the Cascades, Rockies) and overnight it our way.
In some summers, the ridge is stronger or weaker than others. So many factors come to play in terms of strength.
txbear
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Ptarmigan wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:32 pm In some summers, the ridge is stronger or weaker than others. So many factors come to play in terms of strength.
No doubt about that! Hopefully all of those variables correlate into a ridge that ebbs and flows, allowing for summer to be summer, but also reasonable opportunities for rainfall. Still wishing for some of that mountain pleasantness though 😉
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