July 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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July 2020

Post by tireman4 » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:21 am

Getting this out of the way.....

Scott747
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Re: July 2020

Post by Scott747 » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:45 am

Almost time to keep an eye on the long range models. GFS has consistently been showing some energy coming from the Caribbean and into the Gulf sometime around July 4th. As usual it's all over the place this far out, anywhere from Tampico to the Florida panhandle.

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:52 pm

Scott747 wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:45 am
Almost time to keep an eye on the long range models. GFS has consistently been showing some energy coming from the Caribbean and into the Gulf sometime around July 4th. As usual it's all over the place this far out, anywhere from Tampico to the Florida panhandle.


Beginning Monday, it will largely be tropics or bust for the Brazos Valley over the next 2 long months.

The 12z GFS run is high and dry, but the Canadian and Ensemble bring in a shortwave over the July 4th weekend. Most of the precipt is NW or NE of the HGX area, but we might get lucky with a shower or two.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: July 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:54 pm

The Euro has pretty much nothing over the next 10 days, except some showers between Houston and Lake Charles.

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Re: July 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:13 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011104
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
604 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Fairly close to persistence forecast. MVFR CIGs in place at 12Z
will rise and scatter in the first few hours, with VFR conditions
and southerly winds around or just above 10 knots with some higher
gusts in the afternoon. Look for MVFR to return tonight - and
though winds have stayed up the past couple of nights, expect more
typically light overnight winds ahead.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 356 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]...

Though model guidance suggests some midlevel vorticity passing
over us through the next few hours around the edge of Gulf ridging,
a look at the satellite imagery seems to indicate that subtle
shortwave troughing is actually on its way out of the area, with a
brief window of relative ridging to move overhead. GOES TPW has
precipitable water in the 1.7-2.0 inch range, and with decent
onshore flow, we may see some weak upglide early this morning. All
this is to say, there are mixed signals for early morning rain
chances, and so while my PoPs aren`t high enough for explicit
mention of rain showers, I do sprinkle in some mention
of...sprinkles for the next few hours. Precipitation will
certainly be less robust than it was on Tuesday, and I wouldn`t be
surprised if everyone escapes rain today.

Probably more of the same tomorrow - there is a shortwave trough
progged to diving through the longer trough pattern over the
Southeast US, and this should result in compensating height rises
over our area. It won`t be real significant, but should be enough
to again limit sprinkle/shower chances to basically nil, and allow
for temperatures to rise up more towards the middle 90s than the
lower 90s. We`ll have to keep an eye on the heat index, but it
does appear that boundary layer moisture may mix out a little more
effectively tomorrow, and keep the heat index just below that 108
degree advisory threshold.

Still, we are now solidly into Southeast Texas summer, and we
don`t necessarily need advisory-level heat for it to be
dangerous. This is particularly true if you are required to spend
long stretches in the sun and/or in areas that do not see
significant air movement. Though this heat may not be abnormal
enough to warrant special attention, it`s hot enough that heat
safety should be a consideration in your plans.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Wednesday]...

High pressure remains over Texas on Friday continuing the hot
and humid weather. High temperatures will be yet again climbing
into the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the triple
digits (which will likely continue through the rest of the period).
More cloud coverage over the weekend and into next week may help
relieve some of the heat, but it will still feel like July in SE
Texas. That cloud coverage is thanks to a boundary that will be
sagging into the area from the northeast. Latest guidance has it
weakening and slowing down as it approaches on Saturday, but a
slight chance of showers or thunderstorms are possible over the
northeastern counties. The GFS has a shortwave coming down from
Oklahoma on Sunday helping to increase the thunderstorm coverage
to more of the area, but still the best chances will in the
northeastern counties. The chance of precipitation continues
through Wednesday as that boundary remains draped across the Gulf
Coast with activity enhanced by diurnal and seabreeze processes.


.MARINE...

Moderate to strong onshore winds continue early this morning. SCEC
conditions will be seen through this morning across all the area
waters, and likely push into the afternoon for some or all Gulf
waters. Tonight, onshore flow will continue but diminish in
strength, which will also result in subsiding seas and caution
flags will no longer be needed. Continued haze associated with
Saharan Dust may modestly impact visibility again today.

The lighter winds and calmer seas will prevail through the second
half of the week, particularly during the daytime hours.
Nocturnal winds will likely be a bit stronger, as is typical for
this time of year, but are not expected to be strong enough for
any special attention at this time.

Tides will continue to be significantly above astronomical norms
again today, but that anomaly should gradually decrease in the
coming days. This is partly because of weakening winds, but also
because astronomical tides are increasing. As a result, high
tides are expected to decrease modestly, but still remain in the
vicinity of 2.5 feet above MLLW.


.CLIMATE...

All four of the primary climate sites set new record high minimum
temperatures yesterday. The City of Houston dropped down to 82
degrees, breaking the previous record of 80 degrees set in 2017.
Houston-Hobby broke its previous record of 81 degrees also set in
2017 with a new record high minimum of 82 degrees. This was the
third record high minimum set at Houston-Hobby in a row. The cities
of Galveston and College Station tied their previous record high
minimums with 84 degrees and 82 degrees respectively. The
Galveston record was last set in 1983 and the College Station
record was last set in 1915 - 105 years ago!

Record high minimums will again be within a few degrees at all the
sites today, but especially at Galveston and Houston-Hobby.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 77 98 73 97 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 78 97 75 96 / 10 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 92 81 90 / 10 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
CLIMATE...Fowler

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:47 am

Anything? Anyone? Buehler?

Most of the rain action re: GFS, Euro, Canadian, Ensembles appears to be in far east Texas over the next 10 days. NOAA has thrown in the towel on rain for the next week in the Brazos Valley, withdrawing that measly 20-30% for the July 4th weekend.


Continued boring until further notice.

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Re: July 2020

Post by BlueJay » Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:46 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:47 am
Anything? Anyone? Buehler?

Most of the rain action re: GFS, Euro, Canadian, Ensembles appears to be in far east Texas over the next 10 days. NOAA has thrown in the towel on rain for the next week in the Brazos Valley, withdrawing that measly 20-30% for the July 4th weekend.


Continued boring until further notice.
I'm satisfied.
One less thing...

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Re: July 2020

Post by tireman4 » Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:54 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021108
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Somewhat tricky forecast to begin, with CIGs ranging from high IFR
at CLL to VFR. This mix should see uneven improvement over the
next several hours with clouds generally rising and scattering to
VFR by mid- to late-morning. Winds expected to become light and
variable overnight. With moisture expected to drop by late
tonight, may very well stay VFR through the night - however, hold
some FEW/SCT references in MVFR in case moisture remains
sufficient for lower clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 401 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday]...

The radar shows some (very) light echoes upstream on the western
fringes of our area, and I spy in IR and lightning detection
networks some solid thunderstorm signatures way, way to our west
nearer the Rio Grande. Of course, with high pressure anchored not
too far to our east, none of this is really our problem.

Instead, the focus for the next couple of days (and perhaps even a
bit longer, but more on that in the long term section) will be
heat. Even by July in SE Texas standards, things are looking
pretty hot and humid, particularly this morning when a slew of
record high min temps will be in danger for yet another day. With
500 heights only just a shade above 590 that does help keep things
from getting too out of hand in the afternoon, but highs will
still be on the warm side. Pair that with ample humidity, and
maximum heat indices will peak out near the advisory threshold,
generally around 105 degrees. The hottest heat index will likely
come somewhere on the coastal plain - close enough to the Gulf to
maximize humidity, but far enough away that the boundary layer
doesn`t mix quite as effectively.

As discussed last night, this puts us in a situation that is
perhaps not a significant anomaly for the area, but just by the
nature of where we are, could still be dangerously hot for folks
that must spend significant stretches out in the sun and/or in
locations that don`t get a lot of air flow.

Beyond the heat, one thing we *may* need to keep an eye on for
Friday is an upper trough in the Southeast US retrograding back
towards Louisiana. If it moves west enough, quickly enough, we
could see a little potential for rain try to sneak in to our
eastern edge (Trinity, Polk, Liberty, Chambers counties) Friday
afternoon. I don`t...think...that this will be an issue, but I do
creep some slight chances for showers and thunderstorms in to
account for that scenario.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will continue through
the start of next week. Some spots in Burleson County may even
get into the triple digits without factoring in the heat index on
Saturday and Sunday. Speaking of the heat index, values will
remain in the 100 to 105 through next week. Temperatures may cool
a few degrees for midweek, but high humidity will persist and you
may not notice those few degrees.

The upper level trough mentioned in the short term discussion will
remain over the central Gulf coast through most of next week
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms pretty much every
day in the long term period. With the upper trough located to the
east, areas generally east of I-45 will have the highest chances
of seeing precipitation. Though if the trough slides a bit further
west, then pretty much our entire area would be fair game.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be higher during the
daytime hours thanks to the sun heating us up. Guidance does
finally bring high pressure back to the Gulf Coast by the end of
next week decreasing the chance of precipitation (but increasing
temperatures again).


.MARINE...

Winds over the waters are just high enough to continue the need
for a SCEC early this morning, but expect that the typical slight
weakening of winds in the daytime should allow that to drop off in
not too long. From there, expectations are for the usual
summertime regime of onshore winds that are closer to 10 knots
during the day, and closer to 15 knots at night for the next
several days. Some stronger winds may crop up at some point next
week, but it`s too early to try and pin down specifics on that
just yet.

With the onshore flow continuing, look for tides to continue above
their astronomical values, but that difference will be smaller as
the winds look to be a little weaker. This is a good thing, as
astronomical cycles will be bringing normal tides up, keeping the
actual expected values of high tide in the general vicinity of 2.5
feet above MLLW.


.CLIMATE...

July started a lot like how June ended, with record high minimums
being set. The City of Galveston again tied the record high
minimum temperature of 84 degrees last set in 2005. The City of
Houston broke its record high minimum of 80 degrees set in 1983
with a low of 82 degrees. Houston-Hobby also broke its record high
minimum of 80 degrees (set in 1992) with a low of 81 degrees.
Record high minimum temperatures will again be possible tonight.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 96 74 97 74 98 / 0 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 95 75 96 75 98 / 0 0 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 91 80 91 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
CLIMATE...Fowler

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Re: July 2020

Post by djmike » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:55 am

My poor a/c struggled all day to keep up with this heat. Im done with this heat.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

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Re: July 2020

Post by jasons2k » Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:51 pm

I hit 100 degrees yesterday.

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