June 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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snowman65
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Re: June 2020

Post by snowman65 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:16 am

with the massive humidity blanket in place and Sahara dust coming in, it might just start raining mud.

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tireman4
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Re: June 2020

Post by tireman4 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:49 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261110
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

.AVIATION...
Patchy light rain continues to move across SE TX with strong
activity just off to the east and west. 09z HRRR shows a cluster
of shra/tsra east of the Houston terminals this morning and then
nothing for much of the day with additional shra/tsra inching
toward western TAF sites late this afternoon. Fcst soundings show
weak capping near 850 mb and some dry air in the 900-600 mb layer.
Have leaned toward the drier HRRR/TT WRF solution for TAFs today.
Mvfr cigs should mix out by 15z with generally VFR conds through
the day with MVFR cigs later tonight - mainly affecting northern
TAF sites. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020/

SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)

Skies are cloudy over much of SE TX early this morning and radar
is considerably calmer than the past few nights. A weak
disturbance will approach the Matagorda Bay region today and push
north. This feature will bring a a good chance of shra/tsra to
mainly the western half of the CWA today. Upper level ridging over
the Gulf will be slowly expanding to the west and this should
shunt some of the higher PW air to the west toward Central Texas.
PW values are highest this morning ranging between 2.00 and 2.25
inches. PW values drop to around 1.65 inches over the east by
evening and 1.85 inches over the west. There could be some
additional lift provided by the jet as upper level winds show a
broad split over SE TX and a weak speed max approaching the
western part of the CWA in the aftn. Fcst soundings show some
capping near 850 mb in the east along with a wedge of dry air
between 900-600 mb. Have tapered PoPs higher west, lower to the
east. WPC has outlooked the extreme western part of the CWA in a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and parts of SE TX in a
Marginal Risk. At this time, feel the excessive rain threat will
be west of the area but soil moisture is very high and any
additional rainfall will likely lead to rapid run off.
Temperatures are tricky today as MOS guidance and blends keep MaxT
in the lower/middle 80s. Even with rain and cloud cover
yesterday, high temps reached the upper 80`s. Went more with
persistence and tapered temps cooler in the west under clouds/rain
and warmer to the east closer to the building ridge.

With the loss of heating and jet dynamics, expect showers to end
early in the evening with partly to mostly cloudy skies lingering.
PW values increase again on Saturday but forecast soundings show a
fairly dry profile. Fcst soundings again show some weak capping
near 850 mb and this should be overcome by mid afternoon with
modest heating. Not expecting widespread activity on Saturday but
there should be a few showers and storms around. Will carry chance
PoPs for now. Fcst soundings show saturation around 14,000 feet
and there may be a cirrus shield for much of the day. Probably get
some Saharan dust into the area as well but latest satellite
imagery overnight doesn`t look all that impressive with the dust.
Leaned toward a blend of persistence/climo for MaxT on Saturday.
43

LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Friday]...

Activity across the local area will be dissipating Saturday evening
and early night. A few passing isolated showers are possible over
the Gulf waters and portions of the coasts overnight into early
Sunday morning. Sub-tropical ridge is expected to build and expand
across Mexico and could extend into our general area Sunday.
However, another upper level shortwave exiting the Southern Rockies
Sunday morning and moving eastward across Northern TX Sunday
afternoon, may keep the northeastern edge of the ridge to our south
southwest. Along the surface, another pulse of low level moisture
traveling northeast from the Gulf will make its way across the local
area throughout the day. If the ridge is able to expand into
Southeast TX, then rainfall activity would be a bit limited by the
subsidence aloft, but if the shortwave digs a bit more south, then
it would provide a better environment for shower and thunderstorm
development. Skies may still be a bit hazy Sunday from the remaining
Saharan dust (SAL), however, if we receive enough showers Saturday
and Sunday, the amount of particulate in the atmosphere will be
reduced.

The sub-tropical high will likely be the main dominant weather
feature next week and subdue rainfall chances across Southeast TX.
Continuos onshore flow will bring a few pulses of low level moisture
across the local area, however, subsidence aloft will limit
development. Activity, if any, should develop mainly during the late
morning and afternoon hours with peak heating and the influence of a
few local outflow boundaries. Temperatures will be on the rise
Monday through Wednesday, with highs ranging between the low and mid
90s each day. Heat indices will also increase to the low to mid
100s. The GFS and EC retreat the subtropical ridge to the southwest
in response to an upper level trough moving eastward from the
Rockies Wednesday through the end of the work week, which allow for
indices to slightly decrease. How much of an influence we will have
from this trough is yet unknown as model solutions continue to vary
slightly. Have kept PoPs of 30% or less through the entire week for
now. 24

MARINE...

Low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and high pressure over the
eastern US will maintain a moderate onshore wind through early
next week. Mariners in small craft should exercise caution today.
A SCEC may be required at various times through the weekend. The
general weather pattern doesn`t change through mid week with a
light to moderate onshore flow continuing. Toward the end of next
week, surface high pressure will settle over the central Gulf of
Mexico and lighter winds are expected. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 74 90 75 92 / 60 40 20 10 30
Houston (IAH) 87 77 90 77 92 / 40 30 30 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 87 81 89 80 91 / 30 20 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

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tireman4
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Re: June 2020

Post by tireman4 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:17 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261553
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1053 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

.UPDATE...

A very light precipitation shield is advancing northward from
Matagorda Bay and this will gradually fill in to the northeast
over the next few hours. A decent amount of dry air is located
in the 650 to 900 mb layer along with weak 850 mb capping this
morning. Early morning mid level overcast will slowly thin and
allow surface temperatures to reach the middle 80s by noon. The
shortwave producing the western CWA rain is weakening (warming
cloud tops) so feeling is that any rain will be very light in
nature. An amped up low level jet may provide a touch of lift but,
without there being a distinct low level focus/boundary, just
going with periods of very light rain or shower activity with a
low probability of mid to late afternoon isolated storm cells.
The existence of the SAL will make for a hazy day that will warm
into the average middle to upper 80s under a modest southeast
wind. 31

&&

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snowman65
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Re: June 2020

Post by snowman65 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:28 am

with all the humidity added to the Sahara dust it might just start raining mud next.

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Re: June 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:48 am

Well I believe that’s about it for this system. On to the next whenever that’ll be. Don’t see any significant rain chances happening anytime soon. Dry period might begin now.

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Re: June 2020

Post by txbear » Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:49 pm

Looks like we've been transplanted to West Texas with the dust in the air...with the notable exception that the wind isn't blowing 40 mph.

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: June 2020

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:33 pm

Feels absolutely disgusting outside
Team #NeverSummer

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DoctorMu
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Re: June 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:23 pm

The dust is killing the storms. However, we received 1.5 in yesterday late afternoon, so no complaints.

At least it's "cool", meaning it hasn't hit 90°F in 3 days, although it's super-humid

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DoctorMu
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Re: June 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:06 pm

Today looks like a bust. About 30% chance of showers tomorrow, and then Let the Dessication Begin!

So enjoy the Saharan Dust today, and then I begin pulling for the occasional open circulation tropical wave over the next 2 months until SEC Football season - the COVID edition! ...as the dog days descend.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Sunday Afternoon]...
Rain chances looking slimmer today with AMDAR soundings depicting
a drier airmass with only a thin layer of moisture in the mid
levels. Of course still dealing with the haze and dust today and
then should be thinning out during the course of Sunday. Skies
should become partly cloudy to mostly cloudy this afternoon.

A little bit greater moisture in the lower/mid levels should still
linger in the eastern counties late this afternoon and have kept
chance POPs going for mainly Liberty/Polk counties and would rule
out a few claps of thunder.
45

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM [Today through Sunday]...

Seeing isolated light showers across western areas tonight, and expect
isolated showers to develop near the coast early this morning. Hires
model guidance is advertising a more diurnally driven convective pattern
today and on Sunday with heating being the primary driver for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Expect to see a little more coverage
this afternoon across eastern areas vs. southwest areas. Precipitable
water levels have decreased a little when compared to yesterday, but increase
back to around 2 inches across northern areas on Sunday. Therefore, the
best convective coverage this weekend will likely be on Sunday aft across
the northern half of the area.

Expect max temps to be warmer today and on Sunday with inland temps
near 90. We still have a very humid low-level airmass in place, so min
temps will remain above normal this weekend. 33

LONG TERM [Sunday night through Saturday]...

Any residual showers and thunderstorms will end quickly Sunday
evening but skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy as moisture
gets trapped beneath a building cap near 850 mb. Surface winds fail
to decouple as well so MinT values will remain very warm overnight
and will struggle to fall below 80 degrees by Monday morning. A
short wave will move across the southern plains on Monday and some
showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the mid level trough
axis moves across North Texas. PW values on Monday remain near 1.95
inches north to around 1.70 inches south with convective
temperatures in the lower 90`s. Will carry 20/30 PoPs for Monday
with the higher rain chances in the deeper mstr over the N-NE zones.
High temperatures should warm into the lower 90s as 850 temps warm
and 500 mb heights slowly build as upper level ridging over the Gulf
of Mexico expands westward.

On Tuesday, the upper ridge is centered over the western Gulf. 850
mb temperatures warm further and the moisture profile looks
decidedly drier with weak capping again noted at 850 mb.
MaxT values
will begin to warm with high temperatures a degree or so warmer than
Monday. The center of the upper level ridge will be centered over
the area on Wednesday and move W-NW of the area by Thursday.
Fcst
soundings show a dry moisture profile and weak capping. Convective
temperatures on Wed/Thu are near 100 degrees so not expecting much
in the way of precipitation either day
. Surface dew points are
progged to fall into the lower 70`s each aftn with a bit of mixing
so heat index values (altho very warm) should remain below heat
advisory criteria.

The center of the upper level ridge will move toward western KS by
Fri afternoon as an upper low gradually develops over the southern
Appalachians. An upper level disturbance rotating around the east
side of the upper ridge will move into East Texas during the aftn
and this could bring the eastern half of SE TX some shra/tsra. It
will remain very warm with 850 mb temps near 23 C so sfc temps will
warm into the mid and upper 90`s. The upper trough drifts north but
500 heights lower a bit so will keep diurnally driven shra/tsra in
the forecast for the 4th of July. 850 mb temps remain warm so will
keep MaxT in the mid/upper 90`s. 43

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Re: June 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:26 pm

Boring weather pattern setting in for the foreseeable future.

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