June 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
davidiowx
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Re: June 2020

Post by davidiowx » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:18 am

This is another good side for model guidance I like to use:

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

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Rip76
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Re: June 2020

Post by Rip76 » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:19 am

davidiowx wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:14 am
Here is a link to it:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2512&fh=18
Thank you.

Cromagnum
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Re: June 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:27 am

Geeze. So another soggy night? While my yard appreciates it, 8 inches since Saturday is more than plenty. Whats going to stink is inevitably the faucet is going to slam closed and my yard will try to die anyways.

davidiowx
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Re: June 2020

Post by davidiowx » Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:53 pm

More rain coming in from the GoM on the west side of town. FWIW the 18z HRRR seems to showing more rain tomorrow as well.

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don
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Re: June 2020

Post by don » Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:25 pm

Yeah we need to watch that heavy plume of moisture that's sitting offshore by Brownsville which looks to be a small tropical disturbance.That could produce locally heavy rain as it moves north, especially for those west of I-45.

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don
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Re: June 2020

Post by don » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:36 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
410 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]...

Texas will remain under a general height weakness pattern between
two weaker West and East Coast ridges. A regional high moisture
channel of greater than 1.7 inch pwats/surface layer low to mid 70 F
dew points south of a quasi-stationary `slash` warm front draped
roughly along the I-35 corridor. Throw in a series of weak Western
Gulf disturbances moving up within the mid layer southerly steering
flow and you will have the continued ingredients needed to re-fire
late day into early Friday morning convection. A couple of ragged
lines of mainly showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving up
from the coast at a decent clip but will likely not hold together
long as outflow outraces these cells. Further upstream development
closer to the aforementioned boundary may hang in there and blossom
across the northern third counties within the next hour or two.

Loss of heating should allow for a near 6 to 9 hour late evening
into early Friday morning lull. The latest and greatest guidance has
another round of convection forming over CRP`s area/Coastal Bend
during the pre-dawn hours and advancing up through Matagorda Bay and
surrounding southwestern CWA counties through mid morning. This
ragged band of convection is forecast to travel east through early
afternoon and be outta here by mid afternoon. The main storm mode
will be that of high hourly rainfall rates within slow moving
pockets of moderate rain that will lead to flash flooding.

The only other mention will be slightly amped up southerly winds
along the upper Texas coastline tonight. The east-west gradient
should remain tight enough in producing sustained 15 to 20 mph
overnight winds.

Precipitation and overcast will make for another very warm and humid
Friday morning...interior middle 70 to lower 80 min temps along the
coast. A partially clearing afternoon will warm up into the average
lower to middle 80s. 31

&&

.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Thursday]...

Even with the upper low over the region weakening the next few
days, POPs are expected to remain somewhat elevated as we head
into the weekend. Short waves moving in from the SW along with
continued surges of higher PWs from the Gulf, daytime heating,
and lingering boundaries will help to produce scattered storms
through the weekend. We`ll have to keep an eye open for flood/
flash flood issues by Sat given how wet the grounds are expect-
ed to be.

As the upper ridge tries to build in from the east by the start
of next week, we could see this activity decrease to a more ty-
pical pattern of diurnal seabreeze activity. But the decreasing
rain/cloud coverage could translate to increasing daytime temp-
eratures/higher heat indicies for next week. 41

davidiowx
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Re: June 2020

Post by davidiowx » Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:26 pm

It’s nice to see that SAL is being defeated for once! :fingers crossed:

Cpv17
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Re: June 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:39 pm

davidiowx wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:26 pm
It’s nice to see that SAL is being defeated for once! :fingers crossed:
Amen to that!!

txbear
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Re: June 2020

Post by txbear » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:36 pm

No shortage of moisture out there it seems. Geez it’s suffocatingly humid. Curious how the overnight goes, and if we get anything really going.

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Rip76
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Re: June 2020

Post by Rip76 » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:59 pm

Yeah, it seems to be divided to the gulf, or North.

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