June 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Re: June 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:49 pm

Well, it is pouring in Humble...as we speak....

000
FXUS64 KHGX 242054
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Thursday]...

The middle to upper level low that is slowly rotating across the
region will keep moderate to high rain chances in place through this
period. While there is enough instability to initiate isolated
thunderstorms, most of the precipitation will be light and in the
form of showers through the early Thursday morning hours. A distinct
deformation zone extending from a weak near stationary coastal
surface boundary up into the middle levels will be the focus needed
to allow for the redevelopment of (overnight) early Thursday morning
convection. Overnight conditions will be warm and humid with
scattered showers forming over the southern two thirds of the
forecast area. Minimum temperatures will be within a degree or two
of lower to middle 70 dew points.

The short range and global model solutions are generally showing a
consolidation of precipitation along or near the coast/points
offshore from after midnight tonight through the sunrise hour. As of
now, prepare for another band to form somewhere near the city
southward and impact more southern communities from before sunrise
through the late morning hours. QPF will range from a few tenths of
an inch to locally 1-2 inches over areas where the banding either
trains of simply slows to a crawl on its southeastern exit. Most of
the action should wane before lunch with scatted shower/isolated
storm activity as this weak coastal synoptic scale boundary lifts
northward as a warm front with the help of daytime heating. Late
morning into early afternoon clearing skies may also allow for the
development of a late afternoon sea breeze that could interact with
old convective outflow or the warm front. With less anticipated
afternoon rainfall and partially clear skies...tomorrow is forecast
to be a few degrees warmer than today; average middle 80s. 31

&&

.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Wednesday]...

Elevated rain chances will continue for SE TX through the end of
the week and possibly through most of the upcoming weekend. With
the upper low lingering over the state and a steady influx of 2"
PWs from the Gulf, daytime heating will help with development on
the various boundaries across the CWA on Fri. As the low weakens
further, this general pattern of mainly diurnal activity will be
continuing into Sat/Sun but with slightly less coverage each day.
Upper level ridging will be trying to build over the area by the
start of next week...and this should translate to lower POPs and
higher daytime temperatures. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Winds/seas have decreased across the marine waters this afternoon
and should continue this trend tonight as the shower/thunderstorm
coverage decreases tonight. However, we could see more periods of
unsettled weather through the next few days as an upper level low
pressure system lingers over the state. This pattern will also be
helpful in producing periods of more elevated winds/seas and SCEC
flags will likely be needed on occasion. Otherwise, things should
be settling down by the end of the weekend (i.e. these storms) as
high pressure tries to build in over the region. Generally light/
moderate onshore winds to prevail. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 85 73 88 73 / 20 30 30 50 10
Houston (IAH) 74 85 77 87 78 / 60 60 30 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 83 81 87 82 / 80 60 30 30 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

&&

$$

sau27
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Re: June 2020

Post by sau27 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:32 pm

Last couple HRRR runs seem to be pick up the boundary that is now bisecting Harris county and anchoring heavy rain on it through the night.

Cpv17
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Re: June 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:14 pm

Rain has started here again in central Wharton County. Up to 2.85” for the day now.

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DoctorMu
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Re: June 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:03 pm

Kind of a bust, but any day in summer in the Brazos Valley without the Death Ridge overhead is a good one.

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Re: June 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:31 pm

HRRR model has been consistently hammering me tonight here in west-central Wharton County. We’ll see if it verifies.

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Re: June 2020

Post by txbear » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:37 pm

I think we found where the boundary has set up shop...HRRR has been decently consistent it seems.

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Rip76
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Re: June 2020

Post by Rip76 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:49 pm

txbear wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:37 pm
I think we found where the boundary has set up shop...HRRR has been decently consistent it seems.
For sure.

davidiowx
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Re: June 2020

Post by davidiowx » Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:01 pm

Yeah the HRRR has done a good job showing the boundary location and rain set up most of the day. Looks like it was spot on looking at radar and where the stalled boundary is.

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Re: June 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:13 pm

Beginning to hear some thunder out there. Radar is beginning to go off pretty good. Looks like the boundary is stalled out just to my NW by maybe 10-15 miles.

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Belmer
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Re: June 2020

Post by Belmer » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:31 am

Incredible rainfall rates overnight and this morning in western Harris county and into Fort Bend Co. Nearing 8 inches of rain as a stationary boundary has just parked over the area and low level jet feeding into this band of rain. Flash Flood Watch till 10am with a few Flash Flood Warnings.

South Mayde at Greenhouse Rd bayou is over its banks.


Last 12-hour rainfall totals:
Flood Map.PNG
Harris County Flood Control Map
Blake
Boomer Sooner

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