Wx Infinity Forums

June. Here we are

Let the looooong nights begin and the nail biting model watching commence....

djmike wrote: ↑Thu May 28, 2020 4:57 pm Let the looooong nights begin and the nail biting model watching commence....

Haha you hit the nail on the head right there!!

The NHC has issued a 20% chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche for day 5.

Things are moving along fairly quickly. NHC has highlighted the area in the BoC where the remnants of Amanda may slowly redevelop during the beginning of the week.

Operational models are weak bit the
ensembles have some strong signals.

The NHC has raised the chances for tropical development to 40% the next 2 days and 50% over the next 5 days in the Bay of Campeche. The Western Gulf is beginning to look rather unsettled.

So it looks to curl back toward Mexico and stay way down south.

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 9:08 am So it looks to curl back toward Mexico and stay way down south.

The morning Weather Prediction Center surface chart for day 7 suggests a weak surface low may be entering the NW Gulf. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the potential track or strength of the area of disturbed weather associated with the Central America Monsoonal Gyre. Right now we monitor, but I suspect the real immediate issue will be the possibility of heavy rainfall somewhere along the Texas and Louisiana Coast.

12z GFS has a landfall near San Luis Pass as a 993 mb storm. Probably a strong tropical storm. From there it moves straight north pretty slowly.

As I stated before, things are everchanging. Stay weather aware

The last few years what I’ve noticed is that a lot of the BOC storms, turn West and get buried into Mexico. I’m sure due to The climatology in early June.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 2:56 pm The last few years what I’ve noticed is that a lot of the BOC storms, turn West and get buried into Mexico. I’m sure due to The climatology in early June.

Yes and it looks like the same is going to happen to tropical storm Amanda. What we need to watch for the gulf coast is not necessarily Amanda itself, but a separate low that forms from the overall gyre associated with Amanda, that's what the EURO and GFS are showing developing. So we could end up with 2 systems in the gulf next week, one being Amanda which looks to redevelop in the BOC and move inland into Mexico,and a separate system that develops from the gyre circulation. 12z Euro ensembles have shifted more towards the west fwiw,let the flip flopping begin...lol.

Euro?

So let me get this straight. 3rd storm would set a record for formation this early.... We have TD Amanda, whom will likely spend a brief stint in Mexico, transition gender to become TS/H Cristobal, then potentially make landfall on the US. Very fitting for 2020.

Where is the CTRL-ALT-DEL for 2020 again?

What level are we on for jumanji? Im getting tired of this game. 2 systems in the gulf? Sounds about right for 2020.

Rainfall rates are pretty high with these storms today its raining cats and dogs outside right now.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 3:32 pmEuro?

Today’s 12z operational Euro run had it hitting around Matagorda as a tropical storm.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
336 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

TXC039-157-201-312230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0046.200531T2036Z-200531T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brazoria TX-Fort Bend TX-Harris TX-
336 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
East Central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northwestern Pearland, Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire, West
University Place, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Astrodome Area,
Macgregor, University Place, Greater Third Ward, Midtown Houston,
Neartown / Montrose, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Fourth Ward,
Greater Eastwood, Downtown Houston, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area,
Second Ward and Memorial Park.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

18z GFS has a landfall somewhere near Rockport it looks like. Then it meanders around slowly.

Tropical Forecaster Bevin ups chances for a new Tropical Depression to possibly form in the Bay of Campeche to 50% within 2 days and 60% chance within 5 days. Looks like chances for Cristobal are increasing.