June 2020

[don]

The 0z ICON, and CMC show a sharp left turn towards the upper Texas coast similar to today's 12z EURO fwiw.0z GFS shows a upper Texas coast landfall also but without the sharp left turn.

[Cpv17]

Definitely Texas bound on the 0z Euro. Very strong ridging to the north.

[don]

Yep it takes it towards Corpus Christi in the 0z run.

[srainhoutx]

The NHC has raised chances of tropical development to 80% across the board for the Bay of Campeche disturbance.

[Cpv17]

The NHC has raised chances of tropical development to 80% across the board for the Bay of Campeche disturbance.

The models have this system dissipating over Mexico in a few days, but then another area emerging over the Gulf after that. Wondering if it’ll keep the same name or if we’ll move on to the D name since it looks to be a different feature?

[djmike]

Normally I look forward to hurricane season and the excitement of a storm forming. Now it POSSIBLY heading our direction as a hurricane. 2020 has already been hard for many. Including myself. Ive already had two covid family members suffer. This quarantine. These riots. The looting. People losing jobs. Economy downturn. Im still not at work and working from home. I usually love this time of year but this year is different and I believe not only myself but many others will officially lose it if we get a hurricane to add to this 2020 disastrous list. Im also in an area where it floods bad. Had to rebuild twice from flooding after Harvey and Imelda here in Beaumont. Hopefully things start taking a turn for the better and soon. I love hurricane season and watching storms form but this year, I just dont have the power and will anymore. Unfortunately SOMEONE will get this storm and hopefully when it comes ashore, many folks wont be affected much and it stays well below disastrous level. Prayers for all.

[Cpv17]

Many of the 0z Euro ensemble members have this coming to southeast Texas as anywhere between a strong tropical storm to a moderate hurricane. As always though, follow what the folks say from the NHC. I’m just a weather enthusiast with a little more knowledge than the average person.

[cperk]

The 12z icon has lost its mind.

[cperk]

It has a 974mb hurricane coming into around Galveston on 6/7.

[sau27]

I am genuinely curious how the lack of aircraft soundings will impact modeling for storms like this as they get closer to land. I know the hurricane hunters sample the environment around the storm but the downstream conditions are vitally important for the forecast.

[Cpv17]

The 12z icon has lost its mind.

The ICON isn’t that great. UKMET, Euro, & GFS are the best as far as I know.

[don]

12z GFS shows a left turn towards the Texas coast now also, shows landfall in the Sabine pass.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS shows a left turn towards the Texas coast now also, shows landfall in the Sabine pass.

The GFS has this emerging off the NE tip of the Yucatán where other models have it coming off the west coast of the Yucatán/BOC. Could have an impact on where this ends up.

[srainhoutx]

Recon has been tasked to investigate/sample the Bay of Campeche beginning tomorrow afternoon. 2 missions tomorrow and 1 on Wednesday.

[Cpv17]

The 2pm forecast from the NHC is now at 90/90%.

[Cpv17]

HWRF model looks like it wants to take this into the middle Texas coast as a legitimate hurricane.

[Cromagnum]

Based on satellite presentation alone, I think its pretty close to already being Cristobal

[TexasBreeze]

Looking at 12z GFS it appears this system (90/90 chance to develop) loops around down there and weakens. It isn't our system. A new low forms NE of it and moves up towards TX and our general area. The 0z ECMWF does a similar thing, but more on the NW side of the Yucatan. That new low would be the one to watch.

[Cpv17]

Looking at 12z GFS it appears this system (90/90 chance to develop) loops around down there and weakens. It isn't our system. A new low forms NE of it and moves up towards TX and our general area. The 0z ECMWF does a similar thing, but more on the NW side of the Yucatan. That new low would be the one to watch.

I agree. This is the point I was trying to make with my earlier post this morning. Anyways the 12z Euro looks like middle Texas coast as well as a pretty good tropical storm or weak hurricane.
Actually I take that back. Makes a hard north turn towards Galveston and into east Texas . So upper Texas coast, not middle.

[Andrew]

Models are starting to come into a better consensus on what may happen here in the synoptic flow later this weekend into early next week. Late this week across the SE United States a trough will exit the region allowing for strong ridging to form across the Central United States. 93L gets trapped under the ridging and pushes west before ridging gradually pushes east. The main questions for track here will be how long does a weakness stick across the SE united states before ridging takes control of the mean flow. As for intensity, the GFS shows about 30kts of shear across the Central Gulf over the weekend. Paired with the larger size of this storm, it may take a while for organization to occur. I suspect a TD or TS will be the likely outcome and as is often with these early season storms landfall location will be crucial. Areas west of the center may not see much precip at all. A lot to watch over the coming week.