June 2020
When is next real rain chance? My yard is already getting wilted.
Same here. If I were you I’d start watering. There are some signs in about a week to 10 days we might start getting some isolated storms popping up with maybe better rain chances after 10 days but I wouldn’t bank on that.
There's a 20% chance for me area tomorrow.
Nothing for about 10 days.
Allegedly, a front and higher chance of rain as the ridge breaks down about the 22nd. We'll see. Confidence pretty low.
Watered my front yard all day. Now to deal with the back. Gonna have to repeat this weekend if things don't shake out.
FXUS64 KHGX 161707
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1207 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the afternoon and evening.
Daytime heating, coupled with a corridor of deeper MSTR and a
weak sfc boundary will yield some shra/tsra but most of these
will likely stay east of area TAF sites. Could get some light
ground fog toward sunrise especially SW of the Houston terminals
and mainly impact KSGR and KLBX. Winds overnight will be light.
Generally VFR on Wednesday morning with a weak sfc trough allowing
for some aftn shra/tsra. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/
DISCUSSION...
A corridor of deeper moisture extends across east TX and surface
obs show a weak/diffuse convergent zone over the same general
area. Convective temperatures are in the upper 80`s so with a bit
more heating would expect convection to develop and expand across
the eastern third of the region. Raised PoPs over the eastern
third for this aftn into this evening. Temperature forecast looks
on track and only made minor tweaks to hourly grids. 43
PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 510 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/...
SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow]...
Radar not quite as active this morning across SE TX when compared
to the last couple of ones...with the bulk of the moisture shift-
ing a bit more to the S/SW (into CRP/BRO`s CWAs). However, we are
still expecting some development later this afternoon...fueled by
the slightly higher PWs (1.5-1.7") lingering over East TX and day
time heating. This activity should start off fairly widely scatt-
ered given the lack of any obvious boundaries, but could interact
with the seabreeze if things persist into the very late afternoon
and early evening hours. Rain chances are expected to be a little
lower tomorrow as the deeper moisture wanes despite the more pro-
nounced onshore flow. High temperatures will remain near normals,
in the lower/mid 90s today and tomorrow (and most likely for much
of the coming week). 41
LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Tuesday]...
With the upper low meandering/lingering over the eastern U.S. and
the upper ridge trying to build in from the west across SE TX for
the rest of the week, the forecast looks to be a fairly quiet one.
While things should remain mostly dry, cannot totally rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm (along the seabreeze with daytime
heating) as the onshore flow persists. This pattern is progged to
change by this weekend as the upper low finally weakens/moves off
to the NE. Shortwave activity (from the NW) will be increasing as
the ridging aloft finally breaks down. This combined with PWs in-
creasing to near 2" could make for a fairly wet weekend. But that
being said, did kind of cap POPs at 30-40% for this time frame...
given the drier trends of late. Extended guidance is hinting that
this unsettled pattern could remain in place through the start of
next week. 41
MARINE...
High pressure sagging down across the Gulf Coastal states with upper
low spinning away over South Carolina. Drier air surged out over the
Gulf and now modification underway and this may pose a slight issue
for the Upper Texas coastal waters with the possibility of some
isolated showers the next few days with more moist air to the
northeast and southwest and a dry corridor across the area. Winds
will be southeasterly and light with the proximity of the surface
high over LA. The typical diurnal pattern in June should continue
with stronger winds (10-15 kts) at night and (5-10 kts) during the
early afternoon hours as seabreeze starts marching inland then
increasing. Saturday is something of a transition day as upper
pattern shifts and SE winds give way to S.
By Sunday/Monday time frame will be looking for a change as deeper
southerly flow takes shape and moisture increases leading to more
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the waters as well as a
little stronger more southerly flow.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 70 94 70 95 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 74 94 73 93 / 20 10 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 78 89 80 88 / 10 0 0 10 0
&&
There's some encouragement in the 8-14 day outlook, as the ridge allegedly breaks down.
So much nicer at the beach. Glad sprinklers are programmed and operational.
Potential pattern change (fingers crossed) coming re: precipitation.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Some patchy fog in the south of SGR and around LBX will be clearing
early this morning. Once dissipated, VFR conditions will persist to
the afternoon with some scattered low and mid clouds.
This afternoon, diurnal effects will induce scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from I-45 and east. Seabreeze will drive
storms to the north and dissipate around sunset leaving a few low and
mid clouds overnight.
35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 450 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow]...
Well, if you liked yesterday, there`s good news. With a tongue of
slightly deeper PWs lingering over East TX, the best rain chances
will remain over our E/NE counties this afternoon. These low POPs
are expected to flip over the W/SW portions of the FA tomorrow as
the channel of deeper Gulf moisture over South TX begins to nudge
in this direction and the moisture over East TX mixes out. Other-
wise, the rest of the forecast will likely quite typical for this
time of year. The light persistent onshore flow keep RH levels on
the high side as temperatures top off in the lower to mid 90s to-
day/tomorrow. Low temperatures will be in the 70s tonight. 41
.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Wednesday]...
Oh hey, more good news! The forecast of low POPs across our W/SW
counties will remain in place Thur/Fri as the mostly sunny/humid
weather persists. The meandering closed upper low lingering over
the eastern U.S. will help to keep SE TX under a rather flat up-
per ridge during this time frame. But going into the weekend, we
should see this low finally weaken/move off to the NE. This will
allow for the channel of deeper moisture (PWs near 2") to shift/
settle over SE TX by Sat/Sun. This along with the approach/pass-
age of shortwaves in the increasingly NW flow aloft will support
the higher POPs starting Sat into Sun. As we head into next week,
long-range models are hinting that this wet pattern will persist
as an upper trof/shear axis settles over the region. 41
.MARINE...
Light onshore wind regime in place today with 1 to 2 foot seas for
the most part. The diurnal pattern of stronger winds overnight
returns this evening and seas should become 2-3 ft and with a slow
steady increase in low level winds into the weekend expecting seas
to be very gradually increasing. By Saturday as low level flow
strengthens to around 15 knots will be looking for seas to build
into the 3-5 foot range. SCEC conditions possible Sunday night as
gradient tightens up to 15-20 knots of onshore flow.
45
.TROPICS...
Remain quiet...in fact SAL dust may become an issue as large plume
over the eastern Atlantic which may eventually move through the Gulf
and into Texas Tuesday-Thursday next week unless the ECMWF comes in
closer to reality then it would be Thursday-Friday.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 70 95 71 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 94 74 93 75 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 88 79 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Some patchy fog in the south of SGR and around LBX will be clearing
early this morning. Once dissipated, VFR conditions will persist to
the afternoon with some scattered low and mid clouds.
This afternoon, diurnal effects will induce scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from I-45 and east. Seabreeze will drive
storms to the north and dissipate around sunset leaving a few low and
mid clouds overnight.
35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 450 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow]...
Well, if you liked yesterday, there`s good news. With a tongue of
slightly deeper PWs lingering over East TX, the best rain chances
will remain over our E/NE counties this afternoon. These low POPs
are expected to flip over the W/SW portions of the FA tomorrow as
the channel of deeper Gulf moisture over South TX begins to nudge
in this direction and the moisture over East TX mixes out. Other-
wise, the rest of the forecast will likely quite typical for this
time of year. The light persistent onshore flow keep RH levels on
the high side as temperatures top off in the lower to mid 90s to-
day/tomorrow. Low temperatures will be in the 70s tonight. 41
.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Wednesday]...
Oh hey, more good news! The forecast of low POPs across our W/SW
counties will remain in place Thur/Fri as the mostly sunny/humid
weather persists. The meandering closed upper low lingering over
the eastern U.S. will help to keep SE TX under a rather flat up-
per ridge during this time frame. But going into the weekend, we
should see this low finally weaken/move off to the NE. This will
allow for the channel of deeper moisture (PWs near 2") to shift/
settle over SE TX by Sat/Sun. This along with the approach/pass-
age of shortwaves in the increasingly NW flow aloft will support
the higher POPs starting Sat into Sun. As we head into next week,
long-range models are hinting that this wet pattern will persist
as an upper trof/shear axis settles over the region. 41
.MARINE...
Light onshore wind regime in place today with 1 to 2 foot seas for
the most part. The diurnal pattern of stronger winds overnight
returns this evening and seas should become 2-3 ft and with a slow
steady increase in low level winds into the weekend expecting seas
to be very gradually increasing. By Saturday as low level flow
strengthens to around 15 knots will be looking for seas to build
into the 3-5 foot range. SCEC conditions possible Sunday night as
gradient tightens up to 15-20 knots of onshore flow.
45
.TROPICS...
Remain quiet...in fact SAL dust may become an issue as large plume
over the eastern Atlantic which may eventually move through the Gulf
and into Texas Tuesday-Thursday next week unless the ECMWF comes in
closer to reality then it would be Thursday-Friday.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 70 95 71 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 94 74 93 75 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 88 79 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
My weather app is only showing 20-40% precip chances this weekend, mostly on Sunday.
Don’t trust weather apps. It’s usually just the GFS output (which is getting better, but still). I know I harp on the NWS on occasion but they are still your best bet. Overall, they do a fantastic job.
I have my home locations in Texas and at Indian Rocks both bookmarked from the NWS site so they are easy to get to, and don’t need to type/select any inputs when I go to those pages.
I really don’t go by anyone but myself. I look at the various models and make my own forecasts but yeah, the NWS is pretty good.jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:53 pmDon’t trust weather apps. It’s usually just the GFS output (which is getting better, but still). I know I harp on the NWS on occasion but they are still your best bet. Overall, they do a fantastic job.
I have my home locations in Texas and at Indian Rocks both bookmarked from the NWS site so they are easy to get to, and don’t need to type/select any inputs when I go to those pages.
I'm sure I will wish we had this weather come August, maybe I'm just getting too old for this stuff ?Often TWC or random GFS.jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:53 pmDon’t trust weather apps. It’s usually just the GFS output (which is getting better, but still). I know I harp on the NWS on occasion but they are still your best bet. Overall, they do a fantastic job.
I have my home locations in Texas and at Indian Rocks both bookmarked from the NWS site so they are easy to get to, and don’t need to type/select any inputs when I go to those pages.
NOAA/NWS or bust.
Euro has 1.6-3 inches of rain predicted over the western half of the HGX area through the 240 hr forecast. Something to keep our eye out for beginning this weekend.
0z Euro is quite interesting for the western half of SETX.
0z Euro now develops next weeks disturbance into a Tropical Depression/Weak Tropical Storm into the Middle Texas coast fwiw.