June 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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The High Pressure Ridge of Death literally ate Don in 2011
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Well we're in good shape right now if a drought does occur. Most of the lakes are near full.

https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:02 pm 2011 was literally Hell on Earth. It was a nightmare and my wife was 3-4 months pregnant in August/September that year. We didn’t have rain from early June until October if I remember correctly.


Yeah in 2012 I had to repair my foundation that the 2011 drought contributed to.
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19 years ago Tropical Storm Allison made landfall.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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davidiowx wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 6:24 pm
Rip76 wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:32 pm If I’m not mistaken, didn’t 2011 drought kick of with a storm going in just east of us? Or was it dry before 2011?
Remember TS Don in 2011? It was decimated by dry air before it could even make landfall! That was a site to see. But yes, 2011 we saw the entire month of August above 100F. I don’t remember how many consecutive days but I think it was 40 something. That was the year people had foundation problems if they didn’t water their foundation and trees were dying everywhere.
69 days of 100°F or above in 2011 in College Station. It stopped raining in April and didn't really start again until October. All the natural groundwater was gone. Tropical storm Lee in September moved into Louisiana, but generate more hot wind over Texas, starting 60 fires including torching 34,000 acres near Bastrop. Lee stayed inland, but went up the east coast.
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srainhoutx wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:13 pm 19 years ago Tropical Storm Allison made landfall.
I had just turned 9-years old when Allison came through. I had a passion and love for weather as young as four years old, but I remember Allison was the icing on the cake as far as I knew that meteorology is what I wanted to make a career out of. I remember my mom having to wake myself and three older brothers up at 2-3am to get a broom and sweep water off the back porch before it came in the house. Walked out to the front porch and saw my street look like a river. My oldest brother had just gotten a BB gun and decided to use it to shoot snakes we saw floating in the water. Never would have imagined I would see a flooding event like Allison again... then of course 2017 came along that made Allison look laughable in comparison.
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:12 pm The High Pressire Ridge of Death literally ate Don in 2011
I’ve never seen anything else like it. It was like we were cursed that year and the laws of physics be damned.
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tireman4
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If you go back to Storm2k Archives, we were all dumbfounded, especially Porta. It was so disheartening.
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:evil: H O T
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 061755
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1255 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.AVIATION (18Z)...
Other than mid to late afternoon towering cumulus further
evolving into showers or a lone thunderstorm along the sea breeze
boundary, a quiet VFR day. Few to scattered near 4k ft ceiling
cumulus and a near 10 knot northeast breeze. A north to north east
breeze with a mixture of scattered cumulus and cirrus. A stray
Sunday morning shower is possible from a far western band of TS
Cristobal as he moves onshore over the central Gulf coast. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020/

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies across the area this
morning, with overnight fog development holding off thus far.
Anticipate VFR conditions to continue to hold through the full TAF
period today with sustained northerly winds of around 10kt.
Only potential hazard to contend with will be the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as the sea
breeze pushes inward, but this activity should diminish around
01-03Z with the loss of daytime heating. Have maintained VCTS
wording due to expected sparse spatial coverage of any developing
cells. Cady

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday]...

With confidence increasing that the direct impacts of the approaching
TS Cristobal will stay east of SE Texas, the remainder of the
weekend looks to be mainly characterized by hot and humid
conditions and diurnally driven convection as an upper ridge
continues to build into the area. Expect a slight uptick in high
temperatures this afternoon with most locations across the Houston
metro reaching around 95 while the barrier islands will be
flirting with 90. Persistent dew points in the low to mid 70s
should push heat indicies into the 100-105 range across the region
this afternoon, so be sure to take proper heat safety precautions
if planning any work or exercise outdoors.

Conditions should be favorable for diurnally driven convection
this afternoon, by which mesoscale guidance shows a rise in SBCAPE
values to around 1500-2000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates of upwards
of 8 C/km. Low-level moisture continues to be well-available with
global models showing PWAT values remaining near 1.75 in. Although
coverage should be fairly scattered in nature, daytime heating
should easily erode this morning`s capping inversion and storms
could form as the sea breeze boundary propagates inland. With
HRRR, 3km NAM, and TTU- WRF solutions all reflective of such a
scenario, have maintained 20-30% PoP values across the area
through the early evening hours.

Sunday should not feel too dissimilar to Saturday with highs once
again reaching around 95 and heat indicies climbing back into the
triple digits. Rainfall chances will begin to ramp up heading into
the afternoon as the outer rainfall bands of Cristobal approach
the coast, but no major wind or surge-related impacts are expected
to accompany these showers and storms. Cady

&&

LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

Northeast winds Sunday evening will swing around to the north and
northwest Sunday night through early Monday morning as Tropical
Storm Cristobal makes landfall along the Louisiana coast and moves
toward the central Louisiana area. While locations generally near
and to the east of the Interstate 45 corridor look to be the most
favorable areas for possible rains associated with any of
Cristobal`s outer rainbands Sunday night and Monday, the highest
rainfall totals will end up well to our east in Louisiana. Rains are
anticipated to come to an end Monday afternoon or early Monday
evening, and we currently have a dry forecast for the remainder of
the week. A cold front will move through Southeast Texas late
Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning, and at this time no
rain is expected.

Very warm to hot afternoon high temperatures can be expected for
much of the upcoming week. Mid to upper 90s will be common for most
inland locations each day, and some spots might end up close to or
just over the century mark on Tuesday which would flirt with record
highs (records are 100 at College Station last set in 1948, 97 at
City of Houston last set in 2019, 98 at Houston Hobby set in 1956).
Heat advisories might be needed as heat index values approach or
exceed 108, and heat safety precautions will need to be taken.
42

MARINE...

Expect an increase in both winds and seas heading into the rest of
the weekend ahead of the approach of Tropical Storm Cristobal,
which is projected to make landfall in Louisiana on Sunday.
Although SE Texas is not expected to receive any direct impacts
from the storm, mariners should remain vigilant of the latest
tropical weather information. As Cristobal pushes further north as
an extratropical low by early next week, a weak to moderate
onshore flow will develop which will likely require caution flags
and/or advisories. Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 95 76 97 78 / 20 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 75 95 77 95 79 / 30 30 20 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 79 90 79 90 82 / 20 30 30 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...41
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 062118
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
418 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020/

SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms moving around the
far northwestern edge of TS Cristobal will be entering a very
heated and moist late day eastern Texas environment. Early
afternoon showers have already sprung up across the northeastern
forecast area. This past hour a few showers have popped up in
Montgomery County and have tracked into northern Harris County.
The inland intrusion of the sea breeze boundary may interact with
this activity coming in from the northeast. This could re-blossom
or initiate more central and southern county shower/isolated
storm clusters through the early evening hours.

Tonight will be very warm and muggy with a variable breeze
(possibly brought on by vicinity convective outflow) eventually
becoming northerly in the pre-dawn Sunday morning hours. Even
though the drier air noted on the GOES PW channel over the Ozarks
will be advecting around the western edge of Cristobal, cannot
rule out a stray outer shower band or storm tomorrow afternoon
around Cristobal`s far western periphery as he makes his way
onshore over the southeastern Louisiana coastline tomorrow. The
main weather story over the next several days will be this year`s
first bona fide heat wave. Early week warmer westerly to southwesterly
winds and mainly clear skies providing ample insolation under a
high angle sun will all work in unison to produce hot days. Sunday`s
low to mid 90 F ambient afternoon temperatures, in tandem with
interior lower 70s/mid 70 F coastal dew point readings, will
produce 100 to 105 F heat indices in the full sun. If planning
outdoor activities in the coming days, it may be wise to limit
any strenuous activity during the hours of 11 AM and 5 PM and
maintain proper hydration. 31

LONG TERM [Monday through Saturday]...

With Cristobal likely inland (over LA), the best rain chances for SE
TX should be generally east of the I-45 corridor on Mon. POPs should
be on the decrease by Mon night as the system moves further north of
the area. However, the main forecast issue for Mon and Tues looks to
be the possibility of some very warm daytime temperatures along with
elevated heat indicies. Lingering tropical moisture, decreased winds
and abundant sun (especially on Tues) will help produce highs in the
mid to upper 90s both days. Forecast heat index values to range from
102-108F on Mon...increasing to 105-113F on Tues. A Heat Advisory is
possible (or extended from Sun) for most/all of SE TX.

We should see some cooling by Tues night/Weds with the passage of a
cold front across the state. As the remnants of Cristobal seemingly
merges with the next longwave trof and deepens as it moves east, we
should see enough support aloft to help drag this boundary into the
region by early Weds. Not expecting any precipitation with FROPA at
this time. A drier air mass will help to lower daytime temperatures
closer to seasonal norms. 41

Speaking of which, progged MaxT grids are indicating some spots at/
near 100F on Tues. This could flirt with record highs at CLL/IAH/HOU
if we verify.

Records for Tues 6/9:
CLL 100 in 1948
IAH 97 in 2019
HOU 98 in 1956

&&

.MARINE...

Winds/seas are still expected to increase tonight as Cristobal nears
the central Gulf coast, especially for the coastal waters. Cristobal
is projected to make landfall in LA on Sun with no direct issues for
SE TX. The light/moderate offshore flow tonight through Sun night is
expected to become more southerly by Mon. This light onshore flow is
forecast to remain in place through Tues. Models are indicating that
we could see a very weak cold front move into SE TX Tues night/early
Weds...with light NE/E winds developing for the mid week time frame.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 95 76 97 78 / 20 20 10 20 0
Houston (IAH) 76 95 77 95 80 / 20 10 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 90 79 92 82 / 10 10 20 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
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DoctorMu
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Watered the front after I mowed.

A few hours later, we were just hit with a brief and unexpected, but robust lemonade shower on the very outer band of Cristobal.

Whatever it takes!
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 071420
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
920 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.UPDATE...

Minimal impacts from Tropical Storm Cristobal throughout the Greater
Houston area. Increased sea heights along the coastal waters of 5-
6ft and around 6-9ft swells about 40 miles off the coast. Increased
chances of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
mainly east of I-45, as well coastal counties, starting this
afternoon. Winds will stay out of the North to Northeast at around
10mph and some higher gusts up to 20mph. On average, highs will be
in the low to mid 90s and tonight`s lows in the mid to upper 70s.

The main impact in the region will be heat. High temperatures across
the area are about 5 degrees above average highs. While no records
are expected to be exceeded today, heat indices are expected to be
99-103 across the Greater Houston area. For further information
on the Heat Index, please visit our website at weather.gov/hgx

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Monday]...

With SE Texas not expected to receive any direct impacts as the
center of TS Cristobal approaches the Louisiana coast this
evening, the immediate forecast term will continue to be defined
by rising temperatures and potentially hazardous heat indicies as
we head into the beginning of next week. Upper ridging continues to
build into the central CONUS today, and conditions should mirror
Saturday with highs once again reaching the mid-90s across most of
the region. As dew points remain above 70, apparent temperatures
could reach up to 105 in the afternoon. Although we don`t look to
approach heat advisory criteria until Tuesday, those planning any
outdoor work or exercise should continue to take necessary
precautions such as avoiding strenuous activity during the
afternoon hours and staying sufficiently hydrated.

High resolution models continue to show a few isolated showers and
storms from Cristobal`s outer rain bands reaching our area this
afternoon. Furthermore, model soundings also show a favorable
environment for diurnal convection. With PWAT values remaining in
the vicinity of 2.0 in, SBCAPE values expected to climb above
1000 J/kg, and low-level lapse rates staying fairly steep, could
once again see some scattered activity during the afternoon.
Highest chances will be concentrated around and east of I-45, with
PoPs reaching the 20-30% range by late afternoon.

The warming trend continues on Monday as upper ridging and partly
cloudy skies persist, with many locations expected to rise into
the upper 90s. Rainfall chances continue in the eastern portion of
the CWA as Cristobal pushes further northward, although coverage
will continue to be scattered in nature and rainfall totals should
remain fairly low.

Cady

LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...

A Heat Advisory still looks like it might be needed for parts of
Southeast Texas on Tuesday as very warm temperatures persist. Highs
are expected to range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to close
to 100 well inland. With little mixing anticipated, look for inland
heat index values in a 106 to 113 range. Some heat relief should come
beginning Tuesday night through Wednesday morning when a cold front
moves through the area, and we might see some showers and thunderstorms
develop with the boundary. High temperatures on Wednesday will cool down
into the mid 90s for most inland locations, and heat index values should
peak around 100. Look for weak high pressure to ridge into the area
generally from the north and northeast for the remainder of the week and
on into the weekend. Inland high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
are expected, but lower dewpoints will help to keep heat index values
mostly in the 90s.

Record highs for Tuesday (June 9th) are...

CLL: 100 set in 1948
IAH: 97 set in 2019
HOU: 98 set in 1956

42

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Showers and storms have diminished with the loss of daytime
heating and VFR conditions expected overnight. VFR conditions
expected on Sunday but a surge of mstr in the afternoon coupled
with daytime heating should allow for a few showers and storms to
again develop in the late afternoon. HiRes guidance is less
bullish than today and have some concerns that subsidence from
Cristobal could keep things on the dry side. Both the NAM and GFS
fcst soundings don`t show much of a cap and PW values between
2.00 and 2.25 inches with convective temps in the mid 90`s. Will
mention VCTS for the late aftn into the evening. 43

MARINE...

Winds and seas will continue to increase as TS Cristobal pushes
northward towards the Louisiana coast today. While SE Texas will
avoid any direct impacts from the system, wave heights could reach
as high as 7 to 9 feet tonight and strong rip currents are
expected along Gulf-facing beaches. A Small Craft Advisory will
remain in effect through this afternoon due to these elevated
winds and seas. Heading into next week, moderate top strong onshore
winds develop as Cristobal departs, which will likely require a
continuation of caution flags/advisories.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 75 98 78 101 / 10 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 77 97 79 98 / 20 10 30 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 80 91 82 92 / 30 20 30 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...35
Cpv17
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The Euro and GFS both have a tropical wave around the western Caribbean/Yucatán Peninsula pushing into the Gulf in about 10 days. That’s the next system to watch for now.

ICON has it too.
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Katdaddy
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Another mostly sunny hot day for SE TX on the dry side of TS Cristobal. It would be refreshing to get a few isolated showers rotating around the edge of TS Cristobal later this afternoon and evening.
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12z Euro has a wave going towards TX in about 11 days or so.
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Katdaddy
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More hot and humid weather this week for SE TX. Some areas could see a scattered shower thanks to TD Cristobal.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 081140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions should continue through the duration of the current
TAF period. As the weakening TD Cristobal pushes further north
into Louisiana, could see some isolated SHRA/TSRA across the metro
area and along the coast this afternoon, but any storms that do
develop should be fairly short-lived. Otherwise, no weather
concerns with north winds of around 10 knots shifting to the south
by this evening as Cristobal`s center of circulation moves towards
the Arklatex. Some stronger gusts are possible at the coastal
terminals this afternoon.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday]...

Hot and humid weather will continue heading into the beginning of
the week with upper ridging dominating the central CONUS. TS
Cristobal has pushed further inland overnight after making
landfall yesterday and Louisiana, and will remain well to our
east as it continues its northern track and begins its
extratropical transition today. Both global and high-resolution
guidance show the potential for some of the system`s outer rain
bands to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to Galveston Bay
and areas east of I-45, but any activity that does develop is
unlikely to bring substantial rainfall. Highs will once again
reach the upper 90s across much of the area today, with heat
indicies well into the triple digits during the afternoon.
Individuals should continue to take proper heat safety precautions
when heading outdoors, like avoiding strenuous outdoor activity
during the afternoon, wearing sunscreen, and staying hydrated by
drinking plenty of water.

Tuesday is shaping up to be the hottest day of the week with some
areas, mainly in and around the Brazos Valley, expected to break
100 degrees for the first time this summer. For reference, the
first 100 degree day of the year on average falls between July
13th and 19th at our three inland climate sites (CLL, HOU, and
IAH). With dew points remaining in the mid 70s, heat index values
should climb well above the advisory threshold of 108. We expect
to issue a Heat Advisory for tomorrow with this afternoon`s
forecast package.

Record high temperatures will be within reach on Tuesday at the
three inland climate sites...

Site Record Year Set Forecast
---- ------ -------- --------
CLL 100 1948 100
IAH 97 2019 98
HOU 98 1956 97

Cady

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

A cold front will be moving through Southeast Texas Tuesday night
through early Wednesday morning as a shortwave edges eastward
across the Central Plains. Our area could see some shower and
thunderstorm development with this front, and we continue to carry
some low rain chances with this boundary as it moves on through.
Anything that does develop should weaken/dissipate Wednesday
morning. Lower dew points (in the 50s/60s) filtering into the area
behind the front will bring lower humidities and associated lower
heat index values to Southeast Texas for the second half of the
week and on into the weekend with slightly cooler low temperatures
(60s/70s) and high temperatures in/around the mid 90s. Enough
mid/upper level ridging should be in place to keep the area dry
for the second half of the week and on into the weekend.

42

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

A few showers on the periphery of Cristobal will probably skirt
to the east of area TAF sites overnight with VFR conds expected.
PW values increase to around 2.15 inches on Monday and fcst
soundings look favorable for mentioning precip and short
term/HiRes models are coming around with afternoon showers as low
level winds become convergent. Have added a VCSH for area TAF site
between 20-02z. Winds will briefly pick up on Monday afternoon
and added gusts for the slight increase in wind speeds. 43

MARINE...

Small craft should exercise caution across the Gulf waters today
as moderate to strong winds develop behind the departure of
Tropical Storm Cristobal. With elevated winds likely to persist
overnight and into tomorrow, the extension of the current caution
flags or addition of a Small Craft Advisory is likely to be needed
later today. Lighter winds and seas develop by mid-week as the
surface pressure gradient becomes weaker. The passage of a weak
frontal boundary on late Tuesday/early Wednesday should see a
brief return to offshore winds.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 78 100 71 93 / 10 0 0 20 0
Houston (IAH) 95 78 97 76 95 / 20 10 0 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 79 90 / 30 10 0 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

&&

$$
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jasons2k
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Too hot and dry for me. Making my packing list for Florida.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:05 am Too hot and dry for me. Making my packing list for Florida.
Yeah, the near daily rains in central and north central Florida start about now. The soil was sandy loam, so it drained well. Sometimes, you had to water in the winter and early spring. That's about it.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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