June 2020
12z Euro is also slightly slower to landfall which is likely the cause of the slight westward jog.
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 457
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
Yeah we aren’t out of the woods
Radar lighting up like a Christmas tree out there right now. Love it!
latest from nhc......keep it like that..
- Attachments
-
another record, via Sam Lillo o Twitter:
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1268082342435762177
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1268082342435762177
Random 1am stats: There is no record of a 50kt+ tropical cyclone in this southern edge of the Bay of Campeche before August 1st.
#Cristobal is the first.
12z EPS just came out. They shifted slightly west and a good bit of them still bring it into Texas.
Still getting my bearings on better understanding the tropical systems and dependent dynamics, but I'll throw a guesstimate in the ring with everyone else (keeping in mind it's still early to nail down).
If I take the total of the latest runs of Euro, GFS, Canadian, and NAV (not sure its reliability), plus the ensembles and trends, I'd wager Cameron, LA +/- 23 miles (completely arbitrary). Echo all previous and say it's still too early to nail down the track. In any event, not looking forward to seeing any damage or injuries that might occur on top of what has been a heckuva 2020 so far.
If I take the total of the latest runs of Euro, GFS, Canadian, and NAV (not sure its reliability), plus the ensembles and trends, I'd wager Cameron, LA +/- 23 miles (completely arbitrary). Echo all previous and say it's still too early to nail down the track. In any event, not looking forward to seeing any damage or injuries that might occur on top of what has been a heckuva 2020 so far.
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
This is the correct answer.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:54 pmId rather the TS hit us and dump 4-8 inches.... being on the western side of this storm is going to bring subsidence and weeks of shitty, dry, mid 90s plus weather.
More often than not we end up on the blast furnace side it feels like.
I agree 100%. I was hoping for a middle Texas hit as a TS that gave everyone a few inches of rain and cooler temps. If it goes east of here, we’ll be in the oven for a long time to come.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:54 pmId rather the TS hit us and dump 4-8 inches.... being on the western side of this storm is going to bring subsidence and weeks of shitty, dry, mid 90s plus weather.
I agree with that also,fwiw the 18z ICON has Cristobal moving slower to the north and therefore ends up getting trapped under the ridge at least temperarly. It only goes out to 120 hours though, but and extrapolation of that would have it heading west along the i-10 corridor.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 032042
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Questions of Cristobal continue to dominate the forecast, and the
precise track and strength of the storm will be very important for
our weather this weekend and early next week. Until then, we
should expect pretty seasonable weather, complete with highs
around 90 up to the lower 90s, and daily scattered showers and
thunderstorms around the seabreeze.
.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]...
Ongoing scattered showers & tstms will gradually taper off this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. We remain in a similar
pattern on Thurs, though available moisture levels should be a touch
lower so we`ll probably see less areal precip coverage. Will
maintain the lower end afternoon POPs closer coast for any afternoon
seabreeze activity that gets going.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
The major caveat on a lot of the long term forecast is that things
will depend very strongly on the evolution of Cristobal. Very good
chance that all of this discussion and forecast ends up being
worthless, given the uncertainty in the extended part of the
forecast for this storm. For that reason, the forecast itself
really does not stray very much from NBM. At this point, with the
uncertainty involved, it seems wisest to start with a blend of the
guidance, and steer it towards the more likely scenario as the
location and strength of Cristobal this weekend becomes more
apparent.
Now, all that said, let`s speculate on some meteorology! By Friday
night, the Gulf is progged to be between an upper ridge in the
general vicinity of El Paso/northwestern Mexico, and another ridge
centered over the North Atlantic. This is the channel that
Cristobal should escape through once it starts moving north. Given
our location underneath the eastern fringe of the Mexico ridge,
and continued onshore flow at low levels, I`d fully expect things
be downright seasonable through Friday and into Saturday.
At that point, things start to get real fuzzy. The driving factor
for us will be how quickly Cristobal moves north, and how far east
that ridge to our west builds in? That ridge axis should be
shifting to the east, as a cutoff low off the California coast
begins to be absorbed back into the hemispheric flow. But I think
we learned not too long ago with our own cutoff over Texas that
predicting these is a very tricky business. Also, Cristobal`s
movement itself will be hard to get a handle on until we get a
solid center back over water, moving north. Should the ridge build
east quickly (or have a slow Cristobal), it is entirely reasonable
that the upper ridge will slide east, cut off Cristobal`s northern
motion, and shove it left of track, and those points in the
western part of the cone will need to start paying much more
attention. On the flip side, if Cristobal is fast or the ridge
does not get kicked east quickly and/or strongly enough, the storm
should be more on the forecast track (maybe even right of track?).
The key thing for us, I think, is if Cristobal comes far enough
west to include the eastern half of our area in its outer reaches,
or if our entire area ends up on its subsident edge with ridging
aloft. Things will be a bit cooler and wetter, at least in the
east, should we see more direct influence. But if the storm is too
far away to impact us directly, look for things to get hot. Like
really hot. For College Station in the northwest and folks in the
rural areas well west of the Houston metro, it could be record
hot. In fact, the NBM high temp for College Station on Tuesday is
two degrees above the record high for the day. Not the 95th or
90th percentile high, the mean forecast high. Given the
uncertainty in the forecast, I`m not ready to explicitly forecast
a record high just yet. So, for now, we`ll tamp the heat down just
a bit, into the mid/upper 90s. But do keep in mind, that with the
right positioning, record highs could fall early next week.
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Scattered showers and embedded tstms closer to the coast will
gradually transition further inland with daytime heating & the
seabreeze. VFR conditions should prevail, except in/near the
stronger cells. Precip will taper off as we get closer to sunset
and lose heating. Continued VFR for most of the night with perhaps
some intermittent 1500ft cigs north of a Columbus-Livingston line
in the late night and early morning hours on Thurs. Not quite as
much available moisture to work with on Thurs so will leave the
mention of precip out of the 18z TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly benign conditions expected for the next few days. Eyes are
obviously on Cristobal, currently near the Yucatan, and it`s
evolution. Fcst guidance and official NHC forecast eventually brings
the system to the north central Gulf by Saturday and toward the
northern Gulf Coast (maybe along or near the La coast) Sunday.
There`s still considerable uncertainty in the details and portions
of the upper Tx coast remain in the "cone of uncertainty".
We should see a longer period swell start making its way into the
waters this weekend, likely in the 4-8ft range. Surf along area
beaches will increase as will the threat of rip currents. Small
Craft Advisories, etc will likely be needed at some point. As things
currently stand, would anticipate tides 1-2ft above normal and
additional wave run-up should be a factor due to the swell. Wind
speeds/directions obviously will be dependent on location/timing of
the system.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Tropical Storm Cristobal remains just inland over Mexico this
afternoon. The forecast continues to take the storm northward late
this week and this weekend, with some potential for impacts to
Southeast Texas. But given the storm`s current location and slow
movement, there is greater than usual uncertainty about the
forecast beyond three days. Continue to keep an eye on the latest
forecasts from our office and the National Hurricane Center for
the latest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 91 72 93 72 / 20 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 73 91 73 93 74 / 20 10 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 87 78 86 78 / 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47
TROPICAL...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 032042
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Questions of Cristobal continue to dominate the forecast, and the
precise track and strength of the storm will be very important for
our weather this weekend and early next week. Until then, we
should expect pretty seasonable weather, complete with highs
around 90 up to the lower 90s, and daily scattered showers and
thunderstorms around the seabreeze.
.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]...
Ongoing scattered showers & tstms will gradually taper off this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. We remain in a similar
pattern on Thurs, though available moisture levels should be a touch
lower so we`ll probably see less areal precip coverage. Will
maintain the lower end afternoon POPs closer coast for any afternoon
seabreeze activity that gets going.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
The major caveat on a lot of the long term forecast is that things
will depend very strongly on the evolution of Cristobal. Very good
chance that all of this discussion and forecast ends up being
worthless, given the uncertainty in the extended part of the
forecast for this storm. For that reason, the forecast itself
really does not stray very much from NBM. At this point, with the
uncertainty involved, it seems wisest to start with a blend of the
guidance, and steer it towards the more likely scenario as the
location and strength of Cristobal this weekend becomes more
apparent.
Now, all that said, let`s speculate on some meteorology! By Friday
night, the Gulf is progged to be between an upper ridge in the
general vicinity of El Paso/northwestern Mexico, and another ridge
centered over the North Atlantic. This is the channel that
Cristobal should escape through once it starts moving north. Given
our location underneath the eastern fringe of the Mexico ridge,
and continued onshore flow at low levels, I`d fully expect things
be downright seasonable through Friday and into Saturday.
At that point, things start to get real fuzzy. The driving factor
for us will be how quickly Cristobal moves north, and how far east
that ridge to our west builds in? That ridge axis should be
shifting to the east, as a cutoff low off the California coast
begins to be absorbed back into the hemispheric flow. But I think
we learned not too long ago with our own cutoff over Texas that
predicting these is a very tricky business. Also, Cristobal`s
movement itself will be hard to get a handle on until we get a
solid center back over water, moving north. Should the ridge build
east quickly (or have a slow Cristobal), it is entirely reasonable
that the upper ridge will slide east, cut off Cristobal`s northern
motion, and shove it left of track, and those points in the
western part of the cone will need to start paying much more
attention. On the flip side, if Cristobal is fast or the ridge
does not get kicked east quickly and/or strongly enough, the storm
should be more on the forecast track (maybe even right of track?).
The key thing for us, I think, is if Cristobal comes far enough
west to include the eastern half of our area in its outer reaches,
or if our entire area ends up on its subsident edge with ridging
aloft. Things will be a bit cooler and wetter, at least in the
east, should we see more direct influence. But if the storm is too
far away to impact us directly, look for things to get hot. Like
really hot. For College Station in the northwest and folks in the
rural areas well west of the Houston metro, it could be record
hot. In fact, the NBM high temp for College Station on Tuesday is
two degrees above the record high for the day. Not the 95th or
90th percentile high, the mean forecast high. Given the
uncertainty in the forecast, I`m not ready to explicitly forecast
a record high just yet. So, for now, we`ll tamp the heat down just
a bit, into the mid/upper 90s. But do keep in mind, that with the
right positioning, record highs could fall early next week.
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Scattered showers and embedded tstms closer to the coast will
gradually transition further inland with daytime heating & the
seabreeze. VFR conditions should prevail, except in/near the
stronger cells. Precip will taper off as we get closer to sunset
and lose heating. Continued VFR for most of the night with perhaps
some intermittent 1500ft cigs north of a Columbus-Livingston line
in the late night and early morning hours on Thurs. Not quite as
much available moisture to work with on Thurs so will leave the
mention of precip out of the 18z TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly benign conditions expected for the next few days. Eyes are
obviously on Cristobal, currently near the Yucatan, and it`s
evolution. Fcst guidance and official NHC forecast eventually brings
the system to the north central Gulf by Saturday and toward the
northern Gulf Coast (maybe along or near the La coast) Sunday.
There`s still considerable uncertainty in the details and portions
of the upper Tx coast remain in the "cone of uncertainty".
We should see a longer period swell start making its way into the
waters this weekend, likely in the 4-8ft range. Surf along area
beaches will increase as will the threat of rip currents. Small
Craft Advisories, etc will likely be needed at some point. As things
currently stand, would anticipate tides 1-2ft above normal and
additional wave run-up should be a factor due to the swell. Wind
speeds/directions obviously will be dependent on location/timing of
the system.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Tropical Storm Cristobal remains just inland over Mexico this
afternoon. The forecast continues to take the storm northward late
this week and this weekend, with some potential for impacts to
Southeast Texas. But given the storm`s current location and slow
movement, there is greater than usual uncertainty about the
forecast beyond three days. Continue to keep an eye on the latest
forecasts from our office and the National Hurricane Center for
the latest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 91 72 93 72 / 20 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 73 91 73 93 74 / 20 10 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 87 78 86 78 / 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47
TROPICAL...Luchs
only reason I want it to stay east is because this is the 4th try to get my marine corps buddy from Alabama to come visit me to fish sabine lake for 2-3 days....first time Harvey made us cancel last minute..second time Imelda made us cancel last minute...third time Covid made us cancel last minute...so just asking for a break to make this happen. don't need 8" of rain messing up the fishing.....we are doing this!!! Hope y'all understand lolCpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:14 pmI agree 100%. I was hoping for a middle Texas hit as a TS that gave everyone a few inches of rain and cooler temps. If it goes east of here, we’ll be in the oven for a long time to come.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:54 pmId rather the TS hit us and dump 4-8 inches.... being on the western side of this storm is going to bring subsidence and weeks of shitty, dry, mid 90s plus weather.
Wow! NWS LC just put “Tropical Storm Conditions Possible” icon for Beaumont Pt Arthur and Orange. Wasn’t expecting to see that. Did hear from mets here the storm will be rather large in size so we will still see conditions here. He said 180-200mi wide side to side. We’ll see...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 457
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
Doesn’t surprise we aren’t out of the woods yet anyway
-
TXWeatherMan
- Posts: 152
- Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:21 am
- Location: Montgomery TX
- Contact:
A lot of model watching tonight and tomorrow. I think by Friday we will have a better idea on where this storm is gonna go.