June 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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18z HWRF model is putting southeast TX back into play. It stalls the system out a lot longer down in the BOC compared to other models and that’s why it has it coming more towards us.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:21 pm 18z HWRF model is putting southeast TX back into play. It stalls the system out a lot longer down in the BOC compared to other models and that’s why it has it coming more towards us.
I think that will be a big factor. The slower it moves, the longer it gives the ridge a chance to build and push it northwestward. If it moves quickly, the trough will tug it into LA.
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Ptarmigan
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A slower movement of Cristobal could be a big problem for Texas. It is a complicated forecast.
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jasons2k
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I believe tonight isn't really the night for late-night model watching to see what this is going to do. Too early. Probably tomorrow night or Thursday night will be the time to stay up late to figure this one out.
Pas_Bon
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:04 pm I believe tonight isn't really the night for late-night model watching to see what this is going to do. Too early. Probably tomorrow night or Thursday night will be the time to stay up late to figure this one out.
Last edited by Pas_Bon on Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
TXWeatherMan
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:04 pm I believe tonight isn't really the night for late-night model watching to see what this is going to do. Too early. Probably tomorrow night or Thursday night will be the time to stay up late to figure this one out.
I agree
sau27
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Not sure if anyone looks at the 18z Euro ensemble but it is the first one I’ve seen that has a definitive split in track based on strength. The stronger solutions mostly all bend to the NW while the weaker ones continue on to the north. Perhaps a better stacked system feels the High more.
Pas_Bon
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sau27 wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:37 pm Not sure if anyone looks at the 18z Euro ensemble but it is the first one I’ve seen that has a definitive split in track based on strength. The stronger solutions mostly all bend to the NW while the weaker ones continue on to the north. Perhaps a better stacked system feels the High more.

That’s exactly what is happening. The more Cristobal gets its **** together, the more he heads to Texas.
unome
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecas ... ed_gom.php

Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
446 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical Storm Cristobal near 18.9N 92.0W 994 mb at 4 AM CDT moving SE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Cristobal will move inland to near 18.5N 91.8W this afternoon, to near 18.3N 91.5W early Thu, then weaken to a tropical depression Thu afternoon. Cristobal is forecast to re-intensify to a tropical storm near 20.5N 90.9W on Fri, then increase in intensity and move northward through Sat night. After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the area through Sun night.
unome
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my heart breaks for those poor folks getting dumped on with rain

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Cristobal

Image

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 92.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located by radar data from Mexico near latitude 18.9 North,
longitude 92.0 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near
3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
this morning, followed by turn toward the east this afternoon. A
motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over
eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight increase in strength is possible until the center
crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center
remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal
moves back over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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