June 2020
18z HWRF model is putting southeast TX back into play. It stalls the system out a lot longer down in the BOC compared to other models and that’s why it has it coming more towards us.
I think that will be a big factor. The slower it moves, the longer it gives the ridge a chance to build and push it northwestward. If it moves quickly, the trough will tug it into LA.
A slower movement of Cristobal could be a big problem for Texas. It is a complicated forecast.
I believe tonight isn't really the night for late-night model watching to see what this is going to do. Too early. Probably tomorrow night or Thursday night will be the time to stay up late to figure this one out.
Last edited by Pas_Bon on Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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TXWeatherMan
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Not sure if anyone looks at the 18z Euro ensemble but it is the first one I’ve seen that has a definitive split in track based on strength. The stronger solutions mostly all bend to the NW while the weaker ones continue on to the north. Perhaps a better stacked system feels the High more.
sau27 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:37 pm Not sure if anyone looks at the 18z Euro ensemble but it is the first one I’ve seen that has a definitive split in track based on strength. The stronger solutions mostly all bend to the NW while the weaker ones continue on to the north. Perhaps a better stacked system feels the High more.
That’s exactly what is happening. The more Cristobal gets its **** together, the more he heads to Texas.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecas ... ed_gom.php
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
446 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS...Tropical Storm Cristobal near 18.9N 92.0W 994 mb at 4 AM CDT moving SE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Cristobal will move inland to near 18.5N 91.8W this afternoon, to near 18.3N 91.5W early Thu, then weaken to a tropical depression Thu afternoon. Cristobal is forecast to re-intensify to a tropical storm near 20.5N 90.9W on Fri, then increase in intensity and move northward through Sat night. After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the area through Sun night.
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
446 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS...Tropical Storm Cristobal near 18.9N 92.0W 994 mb at 4 AM CDT moving SE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Cristobal will move inland to near 18.5N 91.8W this afternoon, to near 18.3N 91.5W early Thu, then weaken to a tropical depression Thu afternoon. Cristobal is forecast to re-intensify to a tropical storm near 20.5N 90.9W on Fri, then increase in intensity and move northward through Sat night. After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the area through Sun night.
my heart breaks for those poor folks getting dumped on with rain
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Cristobal
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 92.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located by radar data from Mexico near latitude 18.9 North,
longitude 92.0 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near
3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
this morning, followed by turn toward the east this afternoon. A
motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over
eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight increase in strength is possible until the center
crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center
remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal
moves back over water Thursday night and Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:
Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.
Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Cristobal
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 92.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located by radar data from Mexico near latitude 18.9 North,
longitude 92.0 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near
3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
this morning, followed by turn toward the east this afternoon. A
motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over
eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight increase in strength is possible until the center
crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center
remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal
moves back over water Thursday night and Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:
Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.
Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 031139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020
.AVIATION...
Could have a brief period of MVFR ceilings/visibilities early this
morning before everyone goes VFR. Some showers are already starting
to develop, and expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day. Everything should quiet down this evening.
S to to SE winds should stay around 5 to 10 knots. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...
Current satellite imagery shows increasing clouds across the area
early this morning. Only a shower or two are showing up on radar
so far off the coast. Temperatures at 3 AM range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s inland to around 80 at the coast. Looking for a chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the area today as precipitable
water values remain on the high side. High resolution models are
not showing a whole lot of coverage, so a good portion of the area
will likely stay dry today. High temperatures in the upper 80s to
lowers 90s can be expected. Any activity that does develop should
dissipate by around sunset and not much development is expected
overnight. With precipitable water values lower tomorrow, only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, and high
temperatures should end up a degree or two warmer than what the
area will experience today. 42
LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Tuesday]...
Mostly clear skies and rising heights will lead to continued warming
Friday and Saturday with daytime highs in the mid 90s (and heat
index values near triple digits) and overnight lows in the low to
mid 70s. Then, the forecast for Sunday and beyond will be heavily
dependent on what happens with Tropical Storm Cristobal.
Cristobal has continued to meander through the southern Bay of
Campeche and is expected to make landfall into southern Mexico
within the next 24 hours. It is expected to weaken while it is over
Mexico, but by how much will be dependent on how long it stays over
land. It is then expected to move northward towards the central Gulf
on Friday into Saturday. The latest guidance continues to move
Cristobal towards the central Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday
morning, but confidence on the exact track and intensity remains
low. For now, continue to monitor the forecast through the coming
days as details come into better focus on if SE Texas will
experience any impacts from Cristobal.
Fowler...
MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds can be
expected through the end of the week as Tropical Storm Cristobal
remains in/around the western areas of the Yucatan peninsula. The
latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Cristobal
moving northward beginning on Friday and continuing through Sunday
with an eventual landfall near the central Louisiana coast. If this
forecast track holds, expect to see increasing northeast to north
winds, building seas, increasing rip currents and eventually some
bands of showers and thunderstorms across the upper Texas coastal
waters over the weekend and into the start of next week. Cristobal`s
track and intensity forecast could change, and mariners should
continue to closely monitor the progress of this system. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 73 91 72 93 / 30 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 90 73 91 75 93 / 30 20 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 85 78 87 / 30 10 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 031139
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020
.AVIATION...
Could have a brief period of MVFR ceilings/visibilities early this
morning before everyone goes VFR. Some showers are already starting
to develop, and expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day. Everything should quiet down this evening.
S to to SE winds should stay around 5 to 10 knots. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...
Current satellite imagery shows increasing clouds across the area
early this morning. Only a shower or two are showing up on radar
so far off the coast. Temperatures at 3 AM range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s inland to around 80 at the coast. Looking for a chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the area today as precipitable
water values remain on the high side. High resolution models are
not showing a whole lot of coverage, so a good portion of the area
will likely stay dry today. High temperatures in the upper 80s to
lowers 90s can be expected. Any activity that does develop should
dissipate by around sunset and not much development is expected
overnight. With precipitable water values lower tomorrow, only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, and high
temperatures should end up a degree or two warmer than what the
area will experience today. 42
LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Tuesday]...
Mostly clear skies and rising heights will lead to continued warming
Friday and Saturday with daytime highs in the mid 90s (and heat
index values near triple digits) and overnight lows in the low to
mid 70s. Then, the forecast for Sunday and beyond will be heavily
dependent on what happens with Tropical Storm Cristobal.
Cristobal has continued to meander through the southern Bay of
Campeche and is expected to make landfall into southern Mexico
within the next 24 hours. It is expected to weaken while it is over
Mexico, but by how much will be dependent on how long it stays over
land. It is then expected to move northward towards the central Gulf
on Friday into Saturday. The latest guidance continues to move
Cristobal towards the central Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday
morning, but confidence on the exact track and intensity remains
low. For now, continue to monitor the forecast through the coming
days as details come into better focus on if SE Texas will
experience any impacts from Cristobal.
Fowler...
MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds can be
expected through the end of the week as Tropical Storm Cristobal
remains in/around the western areas of the Yucatan peninsula. The
latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Cristobal
moving northward beginning on Friday and continuing through Sunday
with an eventual landfall near the central Louisiana coast. If this
forecast track holds, expect to see increasing northeast to north
winds, building seas, increasing rip currents and eventually some
bands of showers and thunderstorms across the upper Texas coastal
waters over the weekend and into the start of next week. Cristobal`s
track and intensity forecast could change, and mariners should
continue to closely monitor the progress of this system. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 73 91 72 93 / 30 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 90 73 91 75 93 / 30 20 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 85 78 87 / 30 10 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4470
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
For those of you who wondered what all this means..
122230 - UTC time (12:22:30)
1845N - 18° 45' N latitude
09210W - 92° 10' W longitude
9248 - 924.8 mb flight level pressure
00631 - 631 m flight level altitude
9937 - 993.7 mb extrapolated surface pressure
+223 - +22.3°C flight level temperature
+186 - +18.6°C flight level dewpoint
324007 - 324° flight level wind direction, 7 knots flight level wind speed (30 second mean)
012 - 12 knots peak 10 second wind during a 30 second interval
009 - 9 knots peak 10 second surface wind estimation
003 - 3 mm/hr peak 10 second rain rate
00 - quality flag, 00 = everything is fine
122230 - UTC time (12:22:30)
1845N - 18° 45' N latitude
09210W - 92° 10' W longitude
9248 - 924.8 mb flight level pressure
00631 - 631 m flight level altitude
9937 - 993.7 mb extrapolated surface pressure
+223 - +22.3°C flight level temperature
+186 - +18.6°C flight level dewpoint
324007 - 324° flight level wind direction, 7 knots flight level wind speed (30 second mean)
012 - 12 knots peak 10 second wind during a 30 second interval
009 - 9 knots peak 10 second surface wind estimation
003 - 3 mm/hr peak 10 second rain rate
00 - quality flag, 00 = everything is fine
It’s already a toasty 84 degrees here at 9:45am. Summer is here. At least there is a 40% chance of rain today.
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Stormlover2020
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- Contact:
Ukmet is farther west
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Stormlover2020
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TXWeatherMan
- Posts: 152
- Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:21 am
- Location: Montgomery TX
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The trend has been our friend the past few days but we definitely aren’t out of the woods yet.
So it potentially rakes the La. coast with flooding, then traverses due west and possibly hits either Beaumont or Houston area - where thousands have gathered in protest, thus driving them indoors after potentially exposing each other to the novel coronavirus.
I’m trying to ascertain which Jumanji level this is.....
I’m trying to ascertain which Jumanji level this is.....
12z Euro shifted slightly west maybe by 50 miles? Also stronger than the 0z run.
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